The looming invasion by Russia into Ukraine has dominated international news. But there is an equally relevant diplomatic proxy negotiation going on behind closed doors in Vienna between Iran and the United States for a new deal on nuclear weapons (former President Donald Trump unilaterally left the last one in 2018).
USA TODAY Opinion spoke recently with Barbara Slavin – director of the Future of Iran Initiative, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former senior diplomatic reporter for USA TODAY – about where we are now in talks with the Central Asian country and Iran’s progress on developing nuclear weapons. Her conversation with Editorial Board member Carli Pierson has been edited for length and clarity:
Q. Does Iran have nuclear weapons?
A. No. It does not have nuclear weapons, but has a great deal of material that, if further enriched, could be used for weapons. It has advanced its program significantly in the last year in particular. So, the breakout period (amount of time it would take for Iran to amass sufficient fuel for a nuclear weapon) is down to a few weeks, compared to a year under the 2015 nuclear deal. You still need a delivery mechanism and warhead, but Iran has tons of enriched uranium now and it is enriched to a higher level than ever, now it’s at 60% purity. (You need 90% for a weapon.) Under the nuclear deal, the level was capped at 5% and the amount at 300 kilograms until 2031. This is why we see a sense of urgency about talks in Vienna; a lot of people are very nervous about what will happen if the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is not revived.
Q. How concerned are you about Iran developing nuclear weapons with all the material, and the quality of the material, that it has amassed since the Trump administration left the deal?
A. Iran has not made the decision (to develop weapons), and their official policy is that they don’t want nuclear weapons. It is important for them to have the capability, but not the weapons themselves. Their defense doctrine is based on missiles and support for militias, not nuclear weapons. If they developed the weapons, they would violate their obligations under the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty, which they signed in 1968. Iranian rivals, especially Saudi Arabia, would likely develop weapons of its own. And Israel, which already has nuclear weapons, would not sit on its hands. The Israelis have been sabotaging the Iranian program for years and would likely resume cyberattacks and assassinations of Iranian scientists. There are good reasons why the Iranians haven’t gone all the way. That said, it is in our interest that they get rid of stockpiles of enriched uranium. This would increase stability in the region, and decrease tension between Iran and the U.S.
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Q. Tehran has presented Washington with tough requirements to get back to the negotiating table, namely: a public apology and a promise that a future U.S. government will never pull out of any agreement reached now between the two countries, like the United States did under Trump. If America doesn’t accept those terms, what do you think will happen?
A. The U.S. is at the negotiating table. We have been at the table since last April. It wasn’t this administration that walked away from the agreement back in 2018, and the Biden team has said repeatedly what a disaster Trump’s decision was. Remember, Biden was vice president when the agreement was originally reached. As far as guarantees that successor governments cannot pull out again – there are ways to promise Iranians that they will get oil revenues, a lifting of sanctions, normal trade if they resume compliance. Written assurances can be provided. A leverage point the U.S. has is that Iran needs to get sanctions lifted, at least for the next few years. It would shore up the Iranian currency, which has fallen precipitously against the dollar. That has contributed to 40% inflation; Iranians need this deal and everyone knows it. My hope is that they will accept what is being offered (by Washington) and agree to negotiate directly with the U.S. to finalize the details.
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Q. What about what Trump said when he walked away from the deal in 2018, saying it was a bad deal. What do you think about the previous administration’s decision to walk away from the deal?
A. It was colossally stupid. Trump did it primarily for domestic political reasons, because those supporting his campaign – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Christian fundamentalists – told him to. Turning our back on the deal allowed Iran to go back to enriching at higher levels, and showed the world that the U.S. is not a reliable partner. It was incredibly damaging to our credibility. In terms of regional activities, tensions have risen and Iran continues to support groups we don’t like. So Trump’s move totally backfired.
Q. We’ve talked about the U.S. perspective, but I’d like to know what life is like for average people in Iran right now?
A. As I mentioned, they are suffering from high inflation and unemployment. Their economy has a lot of problems and is also plagued by corruption and mismanagement as well as the COVID pandemic. Of course, the nuclear deal wasn’t a panacea for Iran. But before the U.S. pulled out, Iran exported twice the amount of oil, there was some foreign investment and people had hope. Now, more than 30% of Iranians are considered poor, according to the government’s own statistics. Food and medicine aren’t supposed to be under U.S. sanctions, but because foreign banks won’t deal with Iran, it has been hard for Iranians to get crucial products.
Q. Are sanctions working? Is the world safer because of sanctions on Iran?
A. Sanctions only work when they are supported by most countries in the world and have specific and obtainable goals. For instance, sanctions on South Africa during apartheid – almost everyone supported them. Sanctions on Iran that led to JCPOA worked because they were backed by the United Nations and Europe. If you reimpose blanket economic sanctions unilaterally, as the U.S. has done, ordinary people suffer but regime elites retain access to hard currency. Then you get Venezuela, Cuba and Iran. There is also smuggling. Iran continues to sell oil to China, and there is a lot of smuggling through the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.
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Q. What is next? What needs to happen to make things better between the U.S. and Iran?
A. The most important step is to return to the JCPOA. The U.S. could have done more last year, before Iranian presidential elections. But at this point, the problem is on the Iranian side. They had unreasonable demands, and it has taken them a while to be more realistic.
Q. What is at stake if we fail?
A. Iran will get closer to the ability to make a nuclear weapon, which will incentivize others in region to accelerate work in that direction. We will see more instability, more devastation in Yemen, more attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq. The only way to de-escalate tensions and allow the Biden administration to focus more on China and Russia is by getting the nuclear deal back on track.
Barbara Slavin, director of the Future of Iran Initiative and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, is a lecturer at George Washington University, the author of “Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S. and the Twisted Path to Confrontation” and a former senior diplomatic reporter for USA TODAY.
Carli Pierson is an attorney, former professor of human rights, writer and member of USA TODAY’s Editorial Board. You can follow her on Twitter: @CarliPiersonEsq
You can read diverse opinions from our Board of Contributors and other writers on the Opinion front page, on Twitter @usatodayopinion and in our daily Opinion newsletter. To respond to a column, submit a comment to letters@usatoday.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Revive nuclear deal with Iran? US diplomats need to make it happen.
