With six government vice-presidents balancing political households, geography and gender, Ursula von der Leyen has cemented her private energy in her second time period as European Fee president whereas subtly tilting the EU government to the precise politically and to the east geographically.
The brand new 27-member fee unveiled on Tuesday illustrates her dedication to creating the European financial system greener, extra aggressive and safer, and her ruthlessness in wielding energy to crush critics, reward loyalty and punish those that don’t cooperate along with her. Her eviction of the highly effective French trade commissioner Thierry Breton, who had criticised her private governance type, and the demotion of Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi to the well being and animal welfare job in a snub to the nationalist Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, illustrate her willpower to point out who’s the boss.
Assuming that the European parliament broadly endorses her appointments, the previous German defence minister has created a construction with an array of overlapping portfolios, guaranteeing that she would be the final arbiter on all key points – the price range, defence, local weather laws and financial regulation.
The matrix is supposed to advertise joined-up pondering and assist implement the bold proposals for an investment-led European industrial renaissance outlined by the previous European Central Financial institution president Mario Draghi in a report unveiled final week, which she talked about repeatedly in detailed mission letters to every workforce member. However whether or not weak and tight-fisted EU governments can be keen to generate the huge funds required to finance these concepts is way from sure.
Von der Leyen’s centre-right European Folks’s celebration (EPP), the biggest pressure within the parliament and amongst member governments, will dominate the school with 14 of the 27 posts, in command of main beats from financial coverage to the EU price range, agriculture, defence and migration. Nonetheless, she has appeased the Socialists by giving them two vice-presidencies with an enormous quantity two slot for the Spanish former deputy premier Teresa Ribera, in general cost of the inexperienced transition, and the main position in social and employment coverage for Roxana Mînzatu of Romania. She has additionally pacified the weakened liberal Renew Europe group with two vice-presidencies together with the overseas coverage slot for the previous Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas, and a serious industrial coverage and single market job for Stéphane Séjourné, the outgoing French overseas minister.
She additionally sought to appease the far-right Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni (who voted towards von der Leyen’s reappointment), by giving Italy’s nominee, Raffaele Fitto, a vice-president place with the comparatively low-key duty for regional cohesion. That is regardless of Meloni’s authorities lately passing a legislation that threatens Italy’s cohesion by permitting richer areas to maintain taxes as an alternative of distributing them to the poorer south.
Von der Leyen flexed her muscle tissues to strongarm some international locations into withdrawing male nominees and placing ahead a lady as an alternative. Consequently, the gender stability within the incoming workforce went from 22% girls among the many preliminary candidates to 40% – nonetheless wanting her goal of parity however a major enchancment. She rewarded international locations that nominated girls by giving them larger portfolios, akin to Finland’s Henna Virkkunen, who will get a vice-presidency and the essential digital and safety recordsdata plus a lead position in coordinating help for Ukraine. Slovenia’s Marta Cos can be in command of the EU’s eastward enlargement. Von der Leyen downgraded nominees from international locations that rebuffed her stress for extra girls, akin to Malta, whose nominee will get the largely powerless youth, sport and tradition portfolio.
Her workforce is structured in order that the socialist and liberal vice-presidents can have EPP watchdogs round them to make sure that coverage doesn’t stray from her line, whereas key features akin to commerce, the price range and monetary coverage report on to her.
Considerably, lots of the key portfolios, together with these straight associated to dealing with Russia, can be held by commissioners from the EU’s japanese flank – international locations that joined the bloc 20 years in the past however are nonetheless regarded by some western governments as “new member staters”. A duo of former Baltic premiers, Kallas from Estonia and Andrius Kubilius of Lithuania, can be in command of overseas and defence coverage. Poland’s Piotr Serafin will deal with the EU price range, with the ultrasensitive process of drafting the following seven-year price range plan on which negotiations will begin subsequent 12 months. Given the huge investments required by the inexperienced and digital transitions and in European defence, Serafin, who’s the right-hand man of the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, should advocate whether or not to slash previous spending programmes, akin to agriculture and regional growth – regardless that Poland is the biggest recipient of EU cohesion funds – or to considerably increase income via European taxes, larger nationwide contributions or extra joint borrowing, or a mix of all three.
The rightward drift of the brand new lineup responds to the political actuality of a surge of far-right and nationalist events on this 12 months’s European parliament elections, even when the pro-European mainstream retains a majority. On the identical time, the fee has responded to the geopolitical actuality of a Russian menace that looms ever bigger, two and a half years into Vladimir Putin’s brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, by appointing many commissioners from the east who’ve duty for defence and budgets.
The incoming workforce should implement the brand new migration and asylum pact, attributable to come into pressure in 2026. Nonetheless, it’s already being thought of inadequate by many international locations which can be both imposing unilateral border controls – as Germany is doing – or, like Italy, demanding harder measures to course of asylum purposes outdoors the EU. The Austrian conservative Magnus Brunner can be in command of migration coverage, which might assist to pacify the rising far proper in his personal nation.
The European parliament might but pressure modifications in von der Leyen’s lineup . Some Socialists and Greens are keen to say the scalps of Fitto and Várhelyi, particularly since the latter branded MEPs “idiots” in his first time period. However as ever, the hearings can be a recreation of rooster during which the precise will retaliate towards Socialist nominees if its personal champions are blocked. The result’s normally a few beauty modifications.
All in all, the brand new fee appears to be like a stronger, extra united workforce with fewer apparent rivalries.
Local weather activists concern will probably be much less dedicated to reaching web zero emission targets and extra lenient on polluting industries and agriculture. But von der Leyen vowed to stay to implementing the European inexperienced deal, for which the important thing rules have been set within the final legislature. The problem for her new workforce is to make greening Europe an financial and technological enhance for our ageing continent, whereas serving to farmers, companies and poorer households alongside on the journey. That’s an enormous ask.
