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Gross sales of present houses are anticipated to stay close to 30-year lows subsequent yr as elevated mortgage charges maintain many would-be sellers feeling locked in to their present loans, Fannie Mae economists mentioned of their closing forecast of the yr.
However “significant regional variation” in listings means many Solar Belt states — and elements of the Mountain West and Pacific Northwest — ought to see a brisker tempo of residence gross sales than the remainder of the nation, forecasters on the mortgage big mentioned Monday.
Slowing residence worth appreciation means People may see their wages go up sooner than residence costs subsequent yr for the primary time since 2011, “helping to start a gradual improvement in homebuyer affordability conditions,” Fannie Mae economists mentioned in commentary accompanying their newest forecast.
Mark Palim
“From an affordability perspective, we think 2025 will look a lot like 2024, with mortgage rates above 6 percent, home price growth easing from recent highs but staying positive, and supply remaining below pre-pandemic levels,” Fannie Mae Chief Economist Mark Palim mentioned in a assertion.
Ups and downs in mortgage charges “may present opportunities for would-be homebuyers to take advantage of temporary lows, and we may see stretches where housing activity is boosted by lower rates,” Palim mentioned.
Residence gross sales projected to backside this yr
Supply: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, December 2024.
After a dramatic 16 p.c drop in 2023 as mortgage charges hit post-pandemic highs, residence gross sales didn’t rebound this yr.
Whereas new residence gross sales are actually forecast to submit 4.1 p.c features this yr, to 693,000, gross sales of present houses seem like they’ll slip by about 1 p.c, to 4.058 million.
At 4.752 million, this yr’s tempo of gross sales is the bottom in three a long time and is simply anticipated to select up by 5.3 p.c subsequent yr and 9.2 p.c in 2026.
“Our outlook for existing home sales was revised upward modestly in 2024 and 2025, but notably downward in 2026,” Fannie Mae forecasters mentioned of adjustments from final month’s forecast.
Current easing in mortgage charges and a pickup in homebuyer mortgage demand drove the near-term upward revisions. However the longer-term outlook for 2026 “has been revised downward due to a reassessment of the persistence of the lock-in effect, which we expect to continue to suppress home sales for the foreseeable future,” Fannie Mae economists mentioned.
New residence gross sales are anticipated to stay a vibrant spot subsequent yr, with 755,000 projected gross sales representing 8.8 p.c development.
“In the face of elevated mortgage rates, homebuilders continue to show a willingness to offer incentives like interest rate buydowns to move their inventories of new homes available for sale and to change the products offered to be smaller, more affordable homes,” Fannie Mae economists mentioned.
The worth premium between new and present houses has come down from 28 p.c within the years earlier than the pandemic to about 4 p.c this yr — partly as a result of builders are shifting to smaller houses.
The median sq. footage of latest houses has dropped from a peak of two,519 sq. ft in Q1 2015 to 2,158 sq. ft in Q3 2024, Fannie Mae economists famous.
After this month’s upward revisions, gross sales of present houses are anticipated to extend by 4.8 p.c in 2025, to 4.251 million.
However due to robust homebuilding and rising inventories, gross sales in Solar Belt states like Florida and Texas are prone to outpace the nationwide common. Components of the Mountain West area and Pacific Northwest even have stock ranges close to or above pre-pandemic norms, Fannie Mae economists mentioned, citing information from Realtor.com.
“In general, we expect that inventory levels will continue their gradual rise nationwide,” Fannie Mae economists mentioned, though inventories within the Midwest and Northeast proceed to lag considerably from pre-pandemic ranges.
Wages might rise sooner than residence costs
Supply: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, December 2024.
With residence worth appreciation anticipated to proceed to decelerate to three.6 p.c by This autumn 2025, Fannie Mae economists venture nominal wage development will exceed residence worth development subsequent yr for the primary time in additional than a decade.
“Underneath that, there may well be some markets that post very small negative (price) declines,” Palim advised Inman. “The dynamics we’re seeing in the housing market are a substantial regional variation because of the relative importance of new homes in different markets.”
Though Fannie Mae economists solely replace their residence worth appreciation forecasts in January, April, July and October, the December forecast included projections for 2026 that weren’t made public in October.
They present Fannie Mae economists count on residence worth appreciation to proceed to fall each quarter of 2026, dropping to 1.7 p.c by This autumn.
“Affordability is going to continue to be an issue, given how unaffordable the housing market is, even if you have some positive movement,” Palim mentioned.
Mortgage charges anticipated to ease
Supply: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, December 2024.
Fannie Mae’s mortgage charge forecast is essentially unchanged from November, with charges anticipated to drop into the low sixes subsequent yr and nonetheless common 6 p.c in the course of the second half of 2026.
“Sticky inflation and an apparent stabilization in job market gains have lowered market expectations for future interest rate cuts,” Fannie Mae economists mentioned. “Unless economic growth starts to slow significantly, we expect mortgage rates to remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, moving only slightly downward to around 6 percent by the end of 2025.”
Residence costs assist mortgage quantity
Supply: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, December 2024.
With residence costs nonetheless climbing, 2025 development in buy mortgage originations is anticipated to outstrip gross sales, rising by 12 p.c to $1.4 trillion.
Fannie Mae economists minimize their forecast for 2026 buy mortgage originations by $54 billion from November to $1.6 trillion, because of the extra conservative outlook for gross sales.
Refinancing volumes are actually projected at $360 billion in 2024, $529 billion in 2025, and $724 billion in 2026, after $30 billion in upgrades from the November forecast.
Housing begins but to backside
Supply: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, December 2024.
A 6.9 p.c drop in single-family housing begins in October prompted Fannie Mae economists to downgrade their near-term forecast for brand spanking new residence development, and the extra conservative outlook for 2026 gross sales additionally prompted a downward revision from November.
The newest forecast envisions single-family housing begins bottoming out at 995,000 subsequent yr, earlier than rebounding by 2 p.c in 2026, to 1.012 million.
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