Russian and Ukrainian delegations convened near the Ukraine-Belarus border for a second round of peace talks on Thursday, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to signal his commitment to continuing the invasion.
What they’re saying: The Ukrainian side is seeking a ceasefire and humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians from towns and cities that have come under attack, said Mykhailo Podolyak, a member of the Ukrainian delegation and an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
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The latest: In a press conference on Thursday, Zelensky called on Putin to “sit down with me” and negotiate at the head-of-state level, asking: “What are you afraid of?”
A call earlier on Thursday between Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron underscored the remote prospects of a swift diplomatic resolution.
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Putin stuck by his demands for the “demilitarization and neutrality of Ukraine,” which he said would be accomplished “whatever happens,” the Kremlin noted. If Kyiv won’t cut a deal, Putin added, Russia will only add to its demands.
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A French official told reporters after the call that it appears “Russia’s ambition is indeed to take control of all of Ukraine.”
Flashback: A previous round of talks on Monday ended without a breakthrough. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the Russian side was ready to meet again sooner but believed the Ukrainians were stalling.
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Zelensky told CNN on Tuesday that the talks would be a waste of time unless the fighting stopped and Russian forces retreated to their positions from before the invasion.
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But an adviser to Zelensky told Axios the Ukrainian side would push for a partial ceasefire to address the humanitarian disaster.
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The two delegations greeted each other cordially and shook hands before sitting down for the talks.
Between the lines: Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, tells Axios that Putin’s demands indicate that he is not currently serious about diplomacy.
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That will only change if Putin comes under sufficient pressure at home — due to battlefield casualties and economic losses — that he feels continuing the war is more perilous for him than ending it, Haass says.
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Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) is among those arguing that the U.S. should set out the circumstances under which sanctions would be lifted in order to provide Putin with an off-ramp.
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Others take a harder line. Radek Sikorski, a Polish politician and chairman of the European Parliament’s EU-USA delegation, told Axios the goal of Western sanctions should now be regime change in Moscow.
The big picture: Outside of the negotiating room, every indication is that this war will continue to escalate. Russia is bombarding Ukrainian cities while Ukrainian officials vow to fight on until victory.
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If diplomacy fails, this war could continue until the end of Ukrainian independence or the end of Vladimir Putin’s regime.
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The path to either outcome would likely be long and incredibly destructive. But at present, no other outcome looks particularly likely.
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