Feb. 22—LEWISTON — A Bates College professor who has been studying U.S. and Russian foreign policy for decades, said Tuesday that the war in Ukraine could pose “quite a large threat to Eastern Europe” as a whole.
James G. Richter, a professor of politics, said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is awful.
“I don’t know what’s going on in Putin’s head,” Richter said.
He said if Putin is serious about absorbing separatist territories in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region into Russia, it means “a larger war” since Russian allies control only about a third of the land.
Richter said he’s pleased to see President Joe Biden and NATO standing “pretty firm” against Russian aggression. Russia, he said, has no doubt been surprised to see such strong opposition.
Biden “has been pretty good” with giving voice to intelligence findings that showed both Russian and American allies what Putin intended, laying out in advance what to expect, Richter said.
The professor said Russia could decide to broaden the war. He said he wouldn’t be shocked if Putin tries to surround or occupy the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.
But in the long run, Richter said, he’s not sure Putin and the Russians can control Ukraine.
Putin has overseen a period of “stagnation and decline” in recent years that may accelerate given the costs of war and the impact of Western sanctions.
He said Putin this week presented “an elaborate, mistaken history” of Ukraine in a bid to show that the country is really part of Russia.
But given that nine out of 10 Ukrainians voted in 1991 to form a separate country, Richter said, it’s clear its people favor independence. Polls show that since 2014, Ukrainians are more committed than ever to aligning with the West, not the Russians next door.
But Putin is listening largely to “an echo chamber of right-wing nationalists,” Richter said, and likely believes his own “rather rambling” rhetoric about Ukraine.
Even so, Putin “still has some room to back off” and avoid the consequences of all-out war.
Richter said that Biden has handled the situation well so far. He said the president ought to continue to bolster NATO and beef up the troop levels in Poland and the Baltic nations of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, which “must be feeling very frightened” about their future.
Richter said, too, that Biden needs to be careful not to lump Russia and China together.
“China is still the most powerful competitor, so you have to be very careful there,” Richter said.
It’s important, he said, to convince China that it would be better off keeping its distance from Russian aggression.
What’s going to happen next in such a volatile situation is “impossible to know,” Richter said, but if Putin keeps pursuing war, he would not be surprised to hear some stirrings of opposition within Russia.
Though it would likely lead to further crackdowns by Putin, he said, Russians “have been taught to hate war” and more than half of them view Ukraine as a separate country.
Richter said many Ukrainians claim they would resist an all-out invasion, pointing to polling done in December as evidence.
The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll found that half of the Ukrainian population would either offer armed resistance or participate in civil defiance through demonstrations, boycotts, marches and the like. A third of those responding said they’d take up arms if Russia invaded and others said they’d focus on defiance that didn’t require the use of weapons.
“It could be very bloody,” Richter said. “I don’t think in the long run it will help Putin.”
