The SAG Awards may have signaled a shift in the Oscar season and the switch of support for the streamers.
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After landing 12 Oscar nominations, Netflix’s “The Power of the Dog” looked to be the odds-on favorite to win best picture, a prize the streamer has coveted since its historic run for “Roma” (2018). However, the streaming giant went home empty-handed on the film side of the house, just one year after becoming the second studio to garner the most nominations for ensemble with three.
Apple Original Films’ “CODA” had a momentous evening, winning cast ensemble and supporting actor for Troy Kotsur, who’s the first deaf actor ever to be nominated and win. He’s only the second at the Oscars, following his co-star Marlee Matlin, who became the youngest actress to win lead for “Children of a Lesser God” (1986). Winning the top prize at SAG has led to big Oscar-winning moments for films like “Spotlight” (2015) and “Parasite” (2019). Though “CODA” looks to be in a much stronger Oscar position than previously, history is against the family drama since “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989) is the only film to ever win best picture without an essential nomination from the Directors Guild of America. In addition, “CODA” isn’t Oscar nominated for directing or editing, which are also important precedents.
We could be in store for another year where you have to throw stats out of the window. Jane Campion’s dark Western had a rough weekend after losing the USC Scripter Award to its Netflix counterpart “The Lost Daughter” from writer and director Maggie Gyllenhaal.
Of the two films previously assumed to be the top best picture contenders, Focus Features’ “Belfast” lost out in ensemble at the SAG Awards and “Power” wasn’t nominated. Noteworthy. For “Belfast,” the only actor nominated was Caitríona Balfe in supporting actress, but she didn’t nab an Oscar nom as did her co-star Judi Dench.
Jessica Chastain took home her first SAG award for best actress for her spirited turn in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” Sitting on her third Oscar nomination following “The Help” (2011) and “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012), along with an unknown lead actress category where none of the women are recognized at the BAFTA Awards, all eyes turn to the Critics Choice Awards, which takes place the same evening. In a group of 500 members, Kristen Stewart could be a favorite with the group for her work in “Spencer,” but this could be an opportunity for Olivia Colman to make her last stand for “The Lost Daughter,” or they could double down on Chastain’s SAG win or Nicole Kidman’s Golden Globe win for “Being the Ricardos.”
Ariana DeBose became the first Latina and queer woman of color to win a SAG award for her performance as the seamstress Anita in 20th Century Studios’ “West Side Story.” The 31-year-old is the frontrunner after leading the way in critics’ prizes and her streak could continue with BAFTA and Critics Choice coming up next. She also serves as a way to reward the musical remake that’s up for seven Oscars but isn’t too competitive in its categories.
Will Smith is one more step closer to his big moment on the Dolby stage, picking up best actor for his work as Venus and Serena Williams’ father in “King Richard.” Twenty years following his first nom for “Ali” (2001), which he ended up losing to Denzel Washington for “Training Day,” who became the second Black man to win lead actor, Smith could become the category’s fifth, no matter what happens at the BAFTA Awards.
If you’re inquiring whether these four acting winners are the eventual Oscar winners, you should know that there have been only eight instances in SAG history where all four acting winners have matched with the Academy. When adding cast ensemble matching with best picture, it’s only happened three times. In two of those three, the eventual Oscar winner also won the DGA and PGA prizes:
2019 – Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”), Renée Zellweger (“Judy”), Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood”), Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”) and “Parasite” (won ensemble and picture)
2017 – Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) and “Three Billboards outside of Ebbing, Missouri” (won ensemble, lost picture to “The Shape of Water” which was not nominated for ensemble)
2014 – “Birdman” Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”), Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) and “Birdman” (won ensemble and picture)
2013 – Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”) and “American Hustle” (won ensemble, lost picture to “12 Years a Slave”)
2010 – Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”), Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”), Christian Bale (“The Fighter”), Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”) and “The King’s Speech” (won ensemble and picture)
2009 – Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”), Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”), Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”), Mo’Nique (“Precious”) and “Inglorious Basterds” (won ensemble and lost picture to “The Hurt Locker”)
2004 – Jamie Foxx (“Ray”), Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”), Morgan Freeman (“Million Dollar Baby”), Cate Blanchett (“The Aviator”) and “Sideways” (won ensemble, lost picture to “Million Dollar Baby”)
1997 – Jack Nicholson (“As Good as It Gets”), Helen Hunt (“As Good as It Gets”), Robin Williams (“Good Will Hunting”) and Kim Basinger (“L.A. Confidential”) and Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”) tied for supporting actress, with “The Full Monty” winning ensemble and losing picture to “Titanic”)
Ergo, let’s see what BAFTA and Critics Choice do since they take place two days before Oscar voting opens. Despite some clear frontrunners, the race remains fluid.
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