Vladimir Putin’s government would not be able to survive in the long-term if it invades Ukraine due to the isolation and economic impact of sanctions, the Defence Secretary has warned.
Speaking ahead of a meeting with his Russian counterparts in Moscow on Friday, Ben Wallace said: “The effect of a full invasion will have long term consequences for the Russian position in the Western world.
He added that Russia would experience”such long term isolation and economic impact” that it would be difficult to “see how the government that committed it would be able to endure in the long term with its people.”
Mr Wallace’s warning was echoed by Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the defence staff, who said: “If Russia invades Ukraine, it’s a tragic mistake”.
In response to their warnings, Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister, said that Moscow’s ties with London were “close to zero”.
“Unfortunately, the level of our cooperation is close to zero and about to cross the zero meridian and go into negative, which is undesirable,” Mr Shoigu said.
He also accused the West of “gorging” Ukraine with weapons. “It is coming from all sides and it is done publicly. It is done demonstrably. Not entirely clear why,” he said.
Mr Wallace’s meeting on Friday is the first between a UK and Russian defence minister since 2013.
Follow the latest updates below.
02:45 PM
Kremlin amassing more troops on border and could invade at ‘any time’, warns US
Russia is amassing more troops on Ukraine’s border, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on Friday.
Speaking at a news conference in Melbourne, Mr Blinken said an invasion of Ukraine could begin at any time, including during the Beijing Winter Olympics.
He also confirmed that Washington was continuing to “draw down” its embassy in Ukraine amid the simmering diplomatic tensions.
“Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation,” he said, adding that the United States “would strongly prefer to resolve the differences” with Russia “through diplomacy”.
His comments come as President Joe Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to immediately leave the country in an interview with NBC News.
The Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is travelling to Moscow on Friday morning to meet his Russian counterpart in an attempt to quell the crisis on the Ukrainian border.
The UK has put 1,000 troops on standby in case of a humanitarian crisis in the east if the current Russian military build-up leads to war.
02:25 PM
Ben Wallace hopes to resolve ‘number of issues’ raised by his Russian counterpart
British Defence minister Ben Wallace told his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu he hoped they could use their meeting in Moscow to resolve a number of issues through diplomacy.
“I hope that by speaking today and starting that relationship, that was at 0pc, we can resolve a number of the issues that you’ve raised,” Wallace said at the start of their meeting.
“(That) we can address some of the issues raised in Russia’s draft treaty … and we can try and move on to where we can resolve our issues together through diplomacy, through other actions, and through confidence building measures.”
02:12 PM
Netherlands, Japan and South Korea advise citizens to leave Ukraine
The Netherlands, Japan and South Korea have today advised their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately amid rising fears of war.
The Dutch government has advised Dutch citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible due to the security situation, the Dutch radio broadcaster BNR said on Friday, citing the Dutch ambassador in Ukraine.
The Netherlands will move its diplomatic post from Kyiv to Lviv in western Ukraine, BNR said.
This comes as the Japanese foreign ministry issued an advisory urging Japanese nationals in Ukraine to leave immeditaely as well as South Korea banning travel to Ukraine and urging all nationals to evacuate.
01:55 PM
Situation in Europe ‘growing quite complicated’, says Russia’s Minister of Defence
At their bilateral meeting in the Russian Defence Ministry, General Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Minister of Defence, said the situation in Europe was “growing quite complicated…and it’s not our fault”, Dominic Nicholls, our Defence and Security Editor, reports.
“We still see in every speech the threat of sanctions. I would not want our negotiations today to have this kind of atmosphere.
“My suggestion for deescalation is for the United Kingdom to stop supplying Ukraine weapons. We don’t understand why you are doing this.”
He also accused Britain of sending special forces to Ukraine and asked how long they would be there.
“I would remind you of the experience of sending troops to countries like Afghanistan,” Gen Shoigu said.
Warning that the level of cooperation between Russia and the West “is almost zero” Gen Shoigu added “we are about to cross the line to the negative side”.
“I’d like to avoid this and discuss topical issues without increasing the temperature with Nato and the United Kingdom given our historic…and common brotherhood,” he said.
01:13 PM
Why mud could play a big part in Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine
Tanks don’t fear mud, the saying goes. But invading armies should – especially in southern Ukraine, writes Roland Oliphant.
Last month, American government sources briefed the New York Times that Vladimir Putin may have postponed his planned invasion of Ukraine because a late winter meant the ground was not hard enough.
The “maximum freeze” Mr Putin’s armies will require before marching West is expected in the second half of this month, according to those reports.
It is an analysis that has been frequently repeated ever since – often with a sage references to Hitler’s Panzers getting stuck in 1941 and the Russian word “rasputitsa”, or thaw.
Read the full story here: Why mud could play a big part in Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine
12:46 PM
Kremlin cites Liz Truss error as evidence West doesn’t understand Ukraine conflict
The Kremlin on Friday cited a geographical gaffe by British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss as an example of how poorly informed Western leaders were about the subject matter in the East-West standoff over Ukraine.
Britain dismissed the comments as propaganda and said Truss had simply misheard Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during a meeting.
“This is the reality in which we have to defend our position,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a briefing.
Russia’s Kommersant newspaper quoted two diplomatic sources as saying that during their closed-door meeting on Thursday Lavrov had asked Truss if she recognised Russian sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh – two regions in the south of the country where Russia has been building up its forces.
Kommersant said Truss replied that Britain would never recognise them as Russian, and had to be corrected by her ambassador.
Britain does not dispute the sovereignty of the regions in question. A British source said Truss had misheard during the meeting, and rejected Peskov’s characterisation of the West’s understanding of the conflict.
“It’s total rubbish and classic Russian propaganda,” the source said.
12:01 PM
German minister calls Ukraine situation ‘dicey’ and urges diplomacy
Every diplomatic effort must be made to de-escalate the “extremely dicey” situation around Ukraine, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Friday.
“Every diplomatic effort must be made to de-escalate this situation,” Habeck told reporters in Warsaw, adding that Russia would face hard-hitting sanctions if diplomacy failed.
“I say that knowing that every sanction of course has costs in one’s own economy,” he added.
11:11 AM
Pictured: Diplomatic tensions simmer between Russia and the West
10:55 AM
Russia cancels plans to block part of Sea of Azov for naval drills that would block Ukraine ports
Russia has reportedly cancelled plans to block part of the Sea of Azov for an upcoming naval exercise which Ukraine had warned would block its ports, writes James Rothwell.
In a post on Facebook, Andriy Klymenko, of the Institute of Black Sea Strategic Studies, said the manoeuvre had been abandoned, possibly due to foreign pressure.
Russia has not yet commented on the affair and it is unclear why the decision was taken. Similar drills in the Black Sea are still due to go ahead as planned, to the alarm of officials in Kyiv.
10:36 AM
Finland to sign deal bringing US-built stealth jets to Russian border
Finland will sign a $9.4 billion (£6.9bn) agreement on Friday to buy US F-35 fighter jets, bringing 64 radar-evading warplanes to a country bordering Russia at a time when Moscow is threatening military action unless the West pulls back its forces in Europe.
Finland, which was historically neutral during the Cold War, is a member of the EU but not of the NATO Western military alliance, though it says it aims to cooperate with NATO and retains the right to join.
It’s government said the decision to buy the advanced US jets, announced in December, was part of long-term plans to boost the country’s defences and not a response to the ongoing confrontation between the West and Russia over Ukraine.
Agreements finalising the purchase of the jets would be signed on Friday with the US government and the manufacturer, Lockheed Martin Corp, the ministry said.
“Yes, today it will be signed… It is a binding agreement that Finland will purchase the jets,” Lauri Puranen, director in charge of the purchase at Finland’s ministry of defence said. Finland has previously said the planes would begin to be deployed in 2027.
10:20 AM
Ben Wallace lands in Moscow
The first event will see Britain’s Defence Secretary lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow, alongside Lieutenant General Yevgeniy Seleznyov, the Commandant of Moscow.
10:01 AM
Ukraine crisis: American B-52 ‘Stratofortress’ bomber planes land in UK
Four American B-52 long-range bombers have arrived in Britain today, as diplomatic tensions simmer between Russia and the West, writes Lucy Fisher, our Deputy Political Editor.
The iconic US military aircraft are headed for RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, following the arrival of ground crew and logistics personnel two days earlier, it is understood.
The B-52, also known as the Stratofortress, is a long-range heavy bomber that has been in US military service since 1955. It can carry nuclear or precision guided conventional weapons.
The jets, which took off from their home base US Air Force Minot in North Dakota at 2am before refuelling in Nova Scotia, are part of a long-planned Bomber Task Force mission.
Read the full story here: American B-52 ‘Stratofortress’ bomber planes land in UK
09:14 AM
Satellite images show new Russian military deployments near Ukraine
Commercial satellite images published by a private US company show new Russian military deployments at several locations near Ukraine, suggesting that Moscow’s force buildup continues amid a flurry of diplomacy aimed at easing the crisis.
Russia is holding joint military exercises in ex-Soviet Belarus as well as naval drills in the Black Sea, part of a surge of military activity near Ukraine that has fuelled fears of an impending invasion. Russia denies any plans to attack.
US-based Maxar Technologies, which has been tracking the buildup of Russian forces for weeks, said images taken on Wednesday and Thursday showed significant new deployments in several locations in annexed Crimea, western Russia and Belarus.
In Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, Maxar said it had identified a large new deployment of troops and equipment at Oktyabrskoye airfield north of the city of Simferopol, including 550 troop tents and hundreds of vehicles.
New troops and equipment also arrived near Crimea’s Novoozernoye, it said, pointing also to a new deployment near the town of Slavne, on the northwest coast of the peninsula.
In Belarus, the site of major joint drills, Maxar said it had identified a new deployment of troops, military vehicles and helicopters at Zyabrovka airfield near Gomel, less than 25 km from the border with Ukraine.
09:07 AM
Defence Secretary to meet with the head of Russia’s armed forces in Kremlin visit
The Defence Secretary is travelling to Moscow on Friday morning to meet his Russian counterpart in an attempt to quell the crisis on the Ukrainian border.
Ben Wallace will meet the Russian Defence minister, General Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, reports Dominic Nicholls, our Defence Editor.
The first event will see Britain’s Defence Secretary lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow, alongside Lieutenant General Yevgeniy Seleznyov, the Commandant of Moscow.
One company of Kremlin honour guards and a military band will be in attendance.
08:40 AM
Ben Wallace travelling to Moscow today to meet his Russian counterpart
The Defence Secretary will travel to Moscow on Friday to meet his Russian counterpart in an attempt to quell the crisis on the Ukrainian border.
The trip will follow the Prime Minister’s visits to Brussels and Warsaw on Thursday, where he insisted Vladimir Putin must not be allowed to “bully” eastern Europe as he warned the continent faced its biggest security crisis in decades.
Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was involved in testy exchanges with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, with no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough being achieved following their meeting in Moscow.
It comes as the Government confirmed preparations to allow the UK to “toughen and expand” its sanctions against Russia have come into force.
The Times reported that Ben Wallace will make clear to Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, that invading Ukraine would be a “lose-lose” situation.
The UK has put 1,000 troops on standby in case of a humanitarian crisis in the east if the current Russian military build-up leads to war.
08:17 AM
Putin kept Macron at a distance for snubbing Covid demands
French President Emmanuel Macron refused a Kremlin request that he take a Russian Covid-19 test when he arrived to see President Vladimir Putin this week, and was therefore kept at a distance from the Russian leader, two sources in Macron’s entourage told Reuters.
Observers were struck by images of Macron and Putin sitting at opposite ends of 4-metre-long (13 ft) table to discuss the Ukraine crisis on Monday, with some diplomats and others suggesting Putin might be wanting to send a diplomatic message.
But the two sources, who have knowledge of the French president’s health protocol, told Reuters Macron had been given a choice: either he accepted a PCR test done by the Russian authorities and was allowed to get close to Putin, or he refused and had to abide by more stringent social distancing.
“We knew very well that meant no handshake and that long table. But we could not accept that they get their hands on the president’s DNA,” one of the sources told Reuters, referring to security concerns if the French leader was tested by Russian doctors.
On Thursday, three days after Macron and Putin had their socially-distanced meeting, the Russian leader received Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The two men shook hands, and sat close to each other, divided only by a small coffee table.
