At first look, Romania’s presidential race, which involves a head in a second spherical of voting this Sunday, would possibly seem like a de facto referendum on Europe. The far-right George Simion – a former soccer hooligan who’s banned from coming into Ukraine for what Kyiv calls “systematic anti-Ukrainian activities” – surged to first place within the first spherical final week with 41% of the vote. Trailing him is Nicușor Dan, Bucharest’s reformist mayor, with simply 21%.
The race pits Dan, a technocratic pro-European candidate, in opposition to a bombastic, Maga-admiring nationalist who rails in opposition to “Brussels” and guarantees to place the “national interest” above worldwide obligations.
If Simion wins, Romania dangers turning into the following intolerant outpost contained in the EU, becoming a member of Hungary and Slovakia. He may use his presidential powers to stall help to Ukraine and undermine negotiations in direction of a collective local weather and migration coverage, whereas sowing additional mistrust in EU establishments.
However the reality is that “pro-Europe” and “anti-Europe” are simply labels. They disguise the truth that what Romanians are actually rejecting is a home political class that has wrapped itself within the EU flag whereas overseeing years of financial stagnation, corruption and damaged guarantees. In any case, almost 90% of Romanians help EU and Nato alignment, in keeping with a survey from this yr.
Each presidential candidates are, in their very own manner, anti-establishment. Whereas Dan constructed his profession combating shady real-estate barons and politicians within the courts, Simion constructed his via televised outrage and fiery speeches that spoke to folks’s frustrations with political elites.
Simion is backed by Călin Georgescu, the political maverick whose shock win within the first spherical of presidential elections in December was annulled by Romania’s constitutional ourt, following allegations of Russian interference. Simion has adopted the same tone, however has stopped in need of overtly calling for Romania to depart the EU or Nato. Distinguishing himself from Georgescu, he has referred to as Putin’s Russia a “threat” to Europe – although he has additionally criticised army help to Ukraine, echoing Donald Trump’s place on the struggle.
The Romanian diaspora accounted for about 10% of the overall votes within the first spherical. And greater than half of them backed Simion. These are Romanians who stay and work in international locations resembling Spain, Germany, the UK and France, immediately benefiting from the freedoms and financial stability offered by the EU. It’s unlikely that these voters had been rejecting “the west” or the EU as such, however quite a home political class that they blame for squandering the alternatives supplied by EU membership, and the truth that they needed to depart their dwelling nation within the first place.
Nonetheless, the EU’s popularity is taking a battering with Simion’s ascent. It’s because his targets are successive pro-European Romanian governments, dominated by the institution events, which promised prosperity however presided over the embezzlement of infrastructure funds, did not modernise hospitals and delayed freeway tasks that Romanians had lengthy been promised – all whereas EU cash poured in. Romania is presently experiencing the very best degree of inflation within the EU, mixed with low wages and excessive taxes.
Add to that the pandemic restrictions, broadly seen as heavy-handed makes an attempt to regulate private freedoms, and the federal government’s alignment with EU coverage on Ukraine, and obvious frustration on the bloc has deepened.
Elena Calistru, a Romanian civic activist and governance knowledgeable, tells me that Simion’s is a extra refined strategy than Georgescu’s, who was outwardly proposing exiting the EU and Nato.
“Simion is seeding deep distrust in democratic institutions themselves and promoting narratives that portray Romania as a ‘second-class country’ in Europe, treated like a colony by the EU and potentially dragged into foreign conflicts,” she says.
There’s a grain of reality in his rhetoric. Romania was stored out of the Schengen space till the starting of this yr, and Romanian migrant employees have lengthy confronted humiliation overseas, whether or not as exploited building labourers within the Netherlands or as care employees in Italy, usually working in situations that border on fashionable slavery. These frustrations have fed a broader sense of grievance over what many see as double requirements utilized to newer EU member states.
Simion’s rise, due to this fact, is much less about coverage than about nationwide identification. His marketing campaign slogan is “Respect”, one thing many Romanians, together with the migrant employees within the diaspora, have been craving. “The Romania you dream of, the Romania you want to return to, we will build it together,” he stated in a speech after his first-round victory.
This election will mark the top of an period. Romania’s transitional interval from dictatorship to democracy is over. For the primary time ever, in each the cancelled December election and now the re-run, not one of the institution events reached the second spherical of the presidential elections.
Romanians gained’t head to the polls on 18 Could to resolve whether or not they need to be within the EU, as a result of they overwhelmingly do. What they’re actually voting on is tips on how to confront a damaged system: via reform and worldwide collaboration – or isolation and nationalism.
