” frameBorder=”0″ class=”dcr-ivsjvk”>
Labor is confident of holding all its seats in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and sources believe the party has stemmed some of the bleeding in Sydney.
The Liberal focus on Victoria, where the Coalition earlier talked up its chances of a decent haul, has narrowed to a handful of seats: Aston, Chisholm, McEwen, and at longer odds, Hawke or Gorton. Labor sources are resigned to losing a few Victorian seats, conceding there are tough challenges especially in Aston and McEwen, which Dutton has visited many times during the campaign.
The Coalition is adamant its internal research paints a rosier picture of marginal seats than that indicated by published polls. Labor is not talking up chances of grabbing Victoria’s ultra-marginal seats of Menzies or Deakin from the Liberals.
“It is closer than the national polls are suggesting,” one Coalition source said. Another stressed they believe it will be tighter than most people expect and downplayed the prospect of a Labor majority. A final blitz, including last minute ad spending, could affect a few more seats, they say.
Liberal strategists are additionally quietly assured of gaining the NSW seats of Bennelong, Gilmore and Paterson and probably Bullwinkel, Tangney and Curtin in WA; there are whispers about Whitlam. Sources level to a last-minute Labor advert blitz of their seats of Boothby, Paterson and Robertson, and Albanese’s choice to carry current occasions with Labor MPs in Bruce and Chisholm, as indicators of Labor concern about these seats.
Labor, conversely, believes it is on track to hold Tangney, and win the new seat of Bullwinkel. ALP sources are also confident of hanging onto all the Hunter region seats, formerly high targets for the Coalition.
Sources close to the Climate 200 movement admitted the race to win Curtin was proving tough. Held by teal independent Kate Chaney, it is thought the first-term MP has her “nose in front”.
The Liberals have relished stumbles from teal independent Monique Ryan in Kooyong, but one source admits winning back the seat after one term is a tough ask. They’d also love their candidate Tim Wilson to win back Goldstein from the independent Zoe Daniel.
Climate 200 sources believe the fight to win all the seats won by teal independents in the 2022 election will be a tough one, but they believe they can hold them all against Liberal challengers, with Allegra Spender’s seat of Wentworth in Sydney considered safest.
after e-newsletter promotion
The independents are facing attacks from third-party campaigners such as Advance and Australians for Prosperity. But Climate 200 says the candidates it has backed in the Coalition-held seat of Cowper, Bradfield and Wannon are doing well and may spring surprises on election night. The marginal seat of Forrest in Western Australia, long held by the Liberals, may also be an interesting race, with a new teal candidate facing off against a new Liberal candidate.
Labor and the Liberals consider they stand an opportunity of profitable Brisbane, and sources within the Greens – who maintain that seat by way of first-term MP Stephen Bates – admit will probably be arduous work to carry on to it.
The Greens are more confident about holding on to the neighbouring seat of Griffith, held by Max Chandler-Mather, and they are increasingly positive about retaining Ryan in Brisbane’s western suburbs. Chandler-Mather, the outspoken housing spokesperson, has helped transform the Greens into a self-described “party for renters” – but Labor is desperate to dislodge him.
The Greens remain confident of taking Labor’s Victorian seat of Wills, held by Peter Khalil, with their candidate Samantha Ratnam, the former state Greens leader. Labor believes it will hang on to Wills, but the Greens believe there’s a groundswell of anger in north Melbourne about Labor’s position on the Gaza war and the cost of living that could push voters to the smaller party.
There’s another three-cornered contest in Macnamara, held by Labor’s Josh Burns. The Middle-East conflict is also important to many voters in the Melbourne Port-side seat, which has a large Jewish community. The 2022 vote count between Labor, Liberals and the Greens was so close it took several days to finalise.
The Greens are quietly confident of taking Richmond, centred on Byron Bay, from Labor’s Justine Elliott. The seat has a high proportion of renters, high house prices and several Greens sit on the local council. Adam Bandt visited the seat on Saturday with candidate Mandy Nolan to launch a plan to raise the aged pension.
Labor believes it could win in Leichhardt, the north Queensland seat held by retiring Liberal MP Warren Entsch. Anthony Albanese’s recent visit to the seat with candidate Matt Smith generated some of the more interesting photos of the campaign, with the former pro basketball player towering over the prime minister.
Now for the wildcard: Labor has been throwing resources at Dickson, Dutton’s seat in Brisbane. Albanese visited Dickson on the first morning of the campaign and the party has dispatched a conga line of senior ministers to campaign there with candidate Ali France. Albanese told Guardian Australia last week that Labor genuinely wanted to unseat Dutton, noting that Dickson was Queensland’s most marginal seat on 1.7%.
Dutton has laughed off the challenge, saying he has always held on in tight contests. But one senior Labor source said that although the party wouldn’t bank its win just yet, internal polling showed the race was very tight.
Albanese’s path to majority authorities appears powerful however Dutton’s is almost invisible. A Labor minority continues to be thought-about by many because the more than likely final result. However with so many marginal seats and several other electoral X-factors mudding the water, it might be a courageous soul who would say what the ultimate numbers might be.
