One hundred days in and Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is not going well. For anyone.
What began as just another neo-imperial adventure, a “special operation’” to “denazify” Ukraine and restore Russian authority over its former Soviet neighbor, has spiraled out of all control. Millions have been forced from their homes; tens of thousands have been killed on the battlefield or by Russian bombardment; a great power has been humbled, and turned into a global pariah.
And the worst thing is, the fighting is nowhere near over.
“We just have to be prepared for the long haul,” NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told reporters after meeting President Joe Biden at the White House on Thursday. “Because what we see is that this war has now become a war of attrition.”
This Could Be the Next Big War That Grips the Entire World
When the invasion began on Feb. 24, Putin and his generals were convinced it would be over in days. Spy chiefs at the FSB assured them Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms. Russian commanders and paratroopers rushed into northern Ukraine, desperate to be the ones to “liberate” Kyiv from its “Nazi” government.
But the Ukrainians fought back, more bravely and more cleverly than anyone had expected. Russia lost thousands of soldiers, from all ranks, before admitting defeat in the Battle for Kyiv and pulling its forces back.
Two months on from that turning point and the picture is transformed. Having concentrated its forces on securing control of the Eastern Donbas, Russia has been using its superior firepower to blast away resistance and grind out small wins and incremental advances across the battlefield.
On Thursday, 99 days into the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces now controlled about one-fifth of his country—an area almost equivalent to the state of New York. An even greater area is contaminated by landmines and unexploded ordnance. Twelve million people have been internally displaced, 5 million have fled the country as refugees.
And where Ukraine once helped feed the world, sending 6 million tonnes of grain a month through its Black Sea ports, its vast grain reserves have either been captured and looted by invaders or are blocked because Russia now controls the seas it must pass through.
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In in its daily intelligence update on Twitter, the U.K Defence Ministry did its best to encapsulate 100 days of war, beginning with the push towards Kyiv and Russia’s repeated failure to secure control of the key Hostomel airfield, northwest of Kyiv, with its airborne forces.
“Following the failure of the initial plan, through false planning assumptions and poor tactical execution, Russia adapted its operational design to focus on the Donbas,” it said.
“Russia is now achieving tactical success in the Donbas. Russian forces have generated and maintained momentum and currently appear to hold the initiative over Ukrainian opposition.”
The Whitehall analysts say Russia now controls over 90 percent of Luhansk Oblast, one of the two regions that comprise Donbas, and is likely to win complete control in the coming weeks.
“Russia has achieved these recent tactical successes at significant resource cost, and by concentrating force and fires on a single part of the overall campaign. Russia has not been able to generate manoeuvre or movement on other fronts or axes, all of which have transitioned to the defensive,” it said.
“Measured against Russia’s original plan, none of the strategic objectives have been achieved. In order for Russia to achieve any form of success will require continued huge investment of manpower and equipment, and is likely to take considerable further time.”
But time may not be on Russia’s side. The longer-range HIMARS missile systems promised this week by the United States, together with other advanced weaponry from the U.S. and other Western allies, could indeed be the “game-changer” the Ukrainians have been hoping for, allowing them to turn the tide in Donbas and start to recapture territory along the southern coastal corridor.
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The 100-day landmark passed unmentioned in Russian media, after the Kremlin ordered its propagandists and pundits not to “draw attention” to the fact that Putin’s war was becoming so “dragged out,” according to insiders who spoke to Latvian news site Meduza.
The most highly paid propagandist, TV host Vladimir Solovyov—who has had two villas on Italy’s Lake Como seized under EU sanctions—refuses to accept that the war in Ukraine is going any way but as planned. On Thursday night’s program, he was asked by a guest where Russian forces might decide to stop once they seal control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
“Kyiv? Lvov?” Solovyov replied. “Where will we stop? Stonehenge, perhaps?”
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