Vladimir Putin, leader of Russia and the man who I cannot resist calling Vlad the Impaler, has 100,000 troops poised to invade Ukraine. The big question is what, if anything, will the U.S. and NATO do to stop him?
I call him Vlad the Impaler in jest, though I know the actual guy was not a Russian, but a hero in Wallachia, a region in what is present-day Romania. Interesting side note, Vlad the Impaler was also known as Vlad Dracula and might well have been the inspiration for the infamous character in the book by Bram Stoker.
The name seems to fit the former KBG agent who leads a paper democracy in Russia. By the way, if you really want to see election fraud, just check into how Vlad runs elections and how he poisons – allegedly – political rivals. It’s very enlightening.
Vlad is pushing President Joe Biden and NATO’s buttons with this threat of military invasion of the former Soviet republic. So far, NATO, which is dominated by the United States, has managed to avoid a classic blunder. If you read much history, or at least watched “The Princess Bride” movie, you know the most classic blunder is to engage in a land war in Asia. Asia eats armies. Ask Napoleon or Hitler. Only Attila the Hun seems to have had success there, but he was, in fact, Asian.
Here is some classic propaganda coming out of Vlad’s camp. Quoting from a Reuters story; “Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Washington of fueling tensions over Ukraine — repeating Moscow’s line that the crisis is being driven by U.S. and NATO actions rather than by its own buildup of tens of thousands of troops near the Ukrainian border.”
Vlad began massing troops along the Ukraine border nine or 10 months ago, shortly after Donald Trump lost to Biden in the U.S. presidential election. Had Trump won reelection, there might not have been a troop buildup since Trump advocated on Vlad’s behalf with NATO and the European economic powers. He would likely have done nothing to oppose any move Vlad made against Ukraine.
Back in the days of the Soviet Union, Ukraine played a key role in agricultural production, weapons manufacturing and provided the Soviet Union with a warm-water naval port on the Black Sea. It was also the republic with the highest population in the old Soviet Union, apart from Russia itself. At least there are some valid reasons to want Ukraine back in the Russian family.
Perhaps someone should inform Vlad that modern nations have these things where we trade with other nations, creating mutually beneficial relationships. Ukraine can still provide food for Russia; it’s just that Russia would need to pay them for it. That’s the way nations not locked in the grip of communism work.
What The Impaler most wants is to prevent Ukraine from entering into the NATO alliance and becoming part of the European Union, something Ukrainian citizens would, in fact, like to see happen. I suppose their affiliation with Russia during the Soviet years was enough for most Ukrainians. So what happens if Russia invades Ukraine?
One possibility is that World War III erupts. The U.S. just put more than 8,000 troops on alert to deploy in Europe should the situation escalate. World War I started with the assassination of a single guy and his wife. World War II started with Hitler’s invasion of Poland after a great deal of appeasement politics designed to prevent war failed, thus launching the bloodiest conflict in human history.
What could we, and presumably our NATO allies, do should Vlad the Impaler begin actually impaling in Ukraine? Our options would be somewhat limited. We certainly would be reluctant to launch a military campaign using ground forces, at least not until all other options were used up.
With that said, appeasement is probably the worst possible strategy. I refer you to Neville Chamberlain’s dealings with Hitler as history’s primary example. We would have to make a rather dramatic stand against Russian aggression, which would mean some form of military strike, likely using non-nuclear cruise missiles or NATO airpower.
The most likely strategy would be to fight a shadow war as we did when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, supplying weapons and military advice to Ukraine.
That might not be enough to actually win a war against Russia, but it might be enough to show Vlad that impaling is unacceptable. Of course, we would whip out the well-worn strategy of embargoes and trade sanctions. Those work, but, like throwing up earth works around a castle and starving out your enemy, you have to be prepared for a long siege.
The one great advantage of sanctions is that the Russian economy isn’t strong. Sanctions would make the oligarchs angry, and they could take out their anger on Vlad, who could quickly become the impaled rather than the impaler.
The best strategy would begin by forcefully, directly and without any ambiguity, letting Vlad know that the world will not tolerate him impaling the Ukraine. This is certainly going to show us whether Biden is more of a Neville Chamberlain or an Attila the Hun.
Gary Cosby Jr. is photo editor of The Tuscaloosa News. Readers can email him at gary.cosby@tuscaloosanews.com.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Putin pushes NATO and Biden with Ukraine troop buildup| GARY COSBY JR.
