- Putin’s declaration of martial law in occupied Ukrainian territories is being decried as a symbolic, desperate move.
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said the martial law decree is “largely legal theater.”
- The move came as Russia continues to face major setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of martial law in four Ukrainian regions that he illegally annexed is being decried as a largely symbolic move that changes little and shows how weak Russia’s position is eight months into its disastrous war.
Western leaders and officials are framing the decision as Putin’s desperate attempt to establish a veneer of control in territories he claims are part of Russia — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — even though Russian forces do not fully occupy the regions.
“Putin finds himself in an incredibly difficult position,” President Joe Biden told reporters on Wednesday. Biden said that the Russian leader’s martial law decree seems to be designed to intimidate Ukrainians into capitulating. “They’re not going to do that,” the president added.
The martial law decree comes on the heels of a series of escalatory steps from Putin, including a partial military mobilization to address glaring manpower shortages and referendums denounced as a sham by leaders worldwide that preceded the so-called annexations. Putin said the martial law announcement was a product of Ukraine’s refusal to accept the results of the discredited referendums, which effectively occurred at gunpoint.
Meanwhile, the Russian military continues to face major, embarrassing setbacks on the battlefield. Russian forces are losing ground to the Ukrainian military in areas Putin now says are part of Russia and under martial law.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken told “Good Morning America” anchor George Stephanopoulos that Putin’s martial law declaration “speaks to his desperation.”
“Just in the last few weeks, he’s tried to mobilize more forces. He’s gone through with this sham annexation of Ukrainian territory,” Blinken said. “Now, in saying that he’s declaring martial law in places that he claims to have people who somehow want to be part of Russia, that speaks to his desperation.”
Martial law provides the Russian military with more power to tighten its control over the partially occupied territories in Ukraine, such as by imposing curfews, restricting civilian movements, forcibly relocating people, and seizing property.
But Putin’s decree seems unlikely to lead to drastic changes or a significant shift from the conditions and practices already seen in these occupied areas. The Russian military, for example, has already subjected large numbers of Ukrainians to forced relocations, among other abuses.
—max seddon (@maxseddon) October 19, 2022
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukraine’s president, said in a tweet that the martial law declaration “should be considered only as a pseudo-legalization of looting of Ukrainians’ property by another ‘regrouping.'”
“This does not change anything for Ukraine: we continue the liberation and deoccupation of our territories,” Podolyak added.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said the martial law decree is “largely legal theater meant to legitimize activities the Russian military needs to undertake or is already undertaking while creating a framework for future mobilization and domestic restrictions,” adding, “Putin’s speech framed the declaration of martial law in four Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine as a continuation of the wartime status quo, adjusted to Russian legal frameworks after Russia’s illegal annexation of those territories.”
The Washington-based think tank further assessed that “these moves are likely necessary to fulfill basic military requirements, such as feeding, housing, equipping, and transporting mobilized and conscripted troops to the front lines; forcing defense contractors or other private businesses to align with government production requirements; and more easily controlling both the Russian population and the Ukrainian civilian populations in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.”
On Wednesday, Putin also announced he is giving “additional powers to the heads of all Russian regions” to “ensure the safety of people” and “maintain public order” in an apparent sign that he is moving to crackdown on dissent at home.
Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin, said in a post on Telegram that “in general, all this looks not so much as a struggle with an external enemy, but as an attempt to prevent a revolution ripening inside the country.”
Putin’s recent military mobilization — an effort to address Russia’s manpower issues in the face of staggering losses on the battlefield in Ukraine — prompted protests and saw tens of thousands of Russian men flee the country. Though some of those conscripted have already made it to the front lines, reports indicate they are poorly equipped and have little to no training.
With so many personnel problems, ISW said Putin’s martial law decree could also be designed to create “a legal framework for the forcible mobilization of Ukrainian civilians in Russian-occupied territories.” Ukraine’s leadership has said this could be a possibility.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday warned men in the occupied territories that they could be pushed into fighting on Russia’s behalf, saying that “the occupiers will try to recruit men into their army” and encouraging people to “try to leave the occupied territory.”
