(Bloomberg) — Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, known for her fierce criticism of Vladimir Putin and his war in Ukraine, is fighting to stay in power after she dismantled her ruling coalition, saying it lacked unity to face the dangers of Russia.
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Kallas’s best chance lies with clinching a deal with the smallest opposition party in parliament — the conservative Pro Patria — which may decide as early as Monday whether or not to join her and the Social Democrats in a new ruling alliance. If she fails, she may be headed toward a no confidence vote and possibly a snap election in a country shoring up the eastern fringe of the European Union and NATO.
With hours to go before the meeting, Pro Patria’s leadership remained undecided. If it doesn’t join Kallas, it may also choose to throw in with former Prime Minister Juri Ratas’s the Centre Party — the former coalition faction whose dispute with Kallas torpedoed their ruling pact — and a far right party in an alternative government. A third option is to remain in opposition.
Pro Patria leader Helir-Valdor Seeder told public broadcaster ERR that his party may need more time to make decision as it needs to hold meetings with each of the rival alliances.
“I don’t believe a final position will come today,” Seeder said, without elaborating.
He has also said that any new government will have to tackle serious geopolitical threats and high inflation, now at 20%.
It was under Kallas that Estonia, long suspicious of the intentions of its neighbor Russia, took one of Europe’s most outspoken stances against Putin’s attack on Ukraine and strongest advocates of helping Kyiv fight off the invasion.
The Baltic nation of 1.3 million has spent roughly a third of its military budget to support Ukraine’s armed forces, sending howitzers and over 100 javelin rockets. Its parliament was also among the first in the world to accuse Russia of genocide for allegedly undertaking actions to kill Ukrainians and wipe out their culture.
As a result, her popularity has soared. A June 1 Norstat survey showed her Reform Party leading the political field with 34.7% support, well ahead of the far-right EKRE Party, in second place with 19.4%, and the Centre Party with 16.3%. Her popularity could play into her favor if the turmoil does trigger an early vote, with elections currently set to take place before next March.
Strong and United
She ended weeks of squabbling with Centre Party on Friday, saying the nation needs to have a strong and united government to face external threats.
While all Estonian parties share Kallas’s pro-Ukrainian views and resolve to fight against the Kremlin, the prime minister has been criticized by political opponents for ignoring domestic issues, such as rising inflation.
Kallas urged Pro Patria not to side with Ratas, saying that would jeopardize Estonia’s image and international partnerships by helping the far-right EKRE to return to power.
Ratas’s previous government collapsed in 2021 under a corruption probe and after two years of scandals tied to EKRE, whose members repeatedly made racist comments and questioned US President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory.
“It’s really complicated to say what Pro Patria will do,” Lauri Laanemets, the head of the Social Democrats, said by phone. It “has to really seriously weigh the consequences if it will bring into government a party whose ministers damage Estonia’s security situation or call into question Estonia’s trustworthiness in NATO.”
(Adds comments from Pro Patria leader on party’s plans from fourth paragraph.)
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