1. Dickson (Qld)
The seat held by Peter Dutton on a 1.7% margin covers suburbs on the northern outskirts of Brisbane. There was no expectation at first of the marketing campaign that it might change fingers, however the decline within the Coalition vote within the polls means we are actually contemplating the likelihood that Labor might acquire seats, with the opposition chief’s very marginal seat probably in play.
The teal unbiased candidate Ellie Smith is operating a distinguished marketing campaign, however polls counsel Labor’s Ali France is extra more likely to emerge as Dutton’s principal opponent within the remaining spherical of counting. Smith is recommending an open ticket, which means she doesn’t specify how voters ought to order the opposite candidates after giving her their first desire. That is widespread among the many teal independents, and doesn’t have an effect on the result once they make it to the ultimate spherical of counting. However the place they fall brief, their preferences could possibly be essential.
In an in depth race, the stream of preferences from teal voters might resolve who wins Dickson. I count on lots of Smith’s preferences would stream to Labor, however maybe fewer than if she had put France above Dutton on her how-to-vote card.
2. Fremantle (WA)
Kate Hulett, operating within the Labor-held seat, got here near successful the state seat of the identical identify in March. One factor that introduced her undone was the Liberal celebration’s determination to desire Labor above her.
However now the Liberals have gone the opposite approach for the federal election, directing preferences in the direction of Hulett, and the Greens are additionally preferencing her. This can be sufficient for Hulett to pose a severe risk to Labor’s Josh Wilson.
3. Macnamara (Vic)
This seat within the interior south of Melbourne is especially complicated. In 2022, the Labor, Liberal and Greens candidates polled nearly precisely the identical first-preference vote. The Greens got here third in the important thing spherical of counting, enabling Labor to win the seat with a 12.2% margin over the Liberals due to Greens preferences.
The seat has one of many largest proportions of Jewish voters in Australia, and there was a robust push to distance Labor from the Greens over its place on the struggle in Gaza. Labor has historically preferenced the Greens over the Liberals, which might most likely result in a Greens victory if Labor was to fall into third place.
This time the incumbent Labor MP, Josh Burns, has as an alternative issued an open ticket on his how-to-vote card, not recommending preferences. This received’t matter if Burns stays within the prime two, wherein case he’ll win, with Liberal preferences serving to him beat the Greens, or Greens preferences serving to him beat the Liberal. But when Burns falls into third, it’s unclear how his preferences will stream. Will Labor preferences nonetheless stream strongly to the Greens, or will many Labor voters as an alternative desire the Liberal candidate?
4. Leichhardt (Qld)
Leichhardt covers Cairns and the Cape York peninsula within the far north of Queensland. The Liberal MP, Warren Entsch, is retiring after holding the seat for many years and Labor believes it has a robust likelihood of successful.
There was an growing vote for rightwing minor events lately, and people events will generally attempt to make their presence recognized with their preferences.
This yr, One Nation is preferencing the Coalition over Labor throughout the nation, in most seats giving the Coalition its second desire. Against this, Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots has chosen to place the incumbent main celebration final, which suggests it has ranked Labor forward of the LNP in Leichhardt. Historically, Labor has gained sturdy desire flows from the Greens, whereas preferences from One Nation and different right-wing minor events have solely barely favoured the Coalition.
The primary problem for these events can be to get their how-to-vote playing cards to potential voters. It’s a giant job for the smaller events to ship volunteers to each polling place – together with some in very distant areas. A how-to-vote card is not any good if voters don’t see it.
5. Sturt (SA)
This inner-city Adelaide citizens is held by the Liberal James Stevens, however is a prime goal for Labor and a teal unbiased, and has even been talked about as a Greens goal.
Greens voters strongly favour Labor over the Coalition when marking their preferences, however there may be extra uncertainty in the case of selecting between Labor and independents.
In some seats the Greens have preferenced the native unbiased greater, however in Sturt they’ve most well-liked Labor over the teal unbiased Verity Cooper, regardless of Cooper being a former Greens member.
If the progressive vote is cut up between Labor and the unbiased, Greens preferences could possibly be essential in deciding which candidate makes it to the ultimate rely in opposition to Stevens.
