Western governments have exaggerated the risk of a “full-blooded” Russian invasion of Ukraine, a former MI6 chief has said.
Sir John Sawers claimed Vladimir Putin was “ahead on points” after forcing the issue of Nato back up the agenda and reminding European countries of their reliance on Russian gas.
“I don’t think that President Putin ever decided to invade the country and, indeed, I think it would always have been a very risky course for him to have taken,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“But I think Russia has also come out of this with a number of important gains.
“I think the risk of full-blooded invasion… was never quite as high as was being portrayed by some Western governments, but I think that has receded.”
His comments came as Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, repeated his claim there would be a “whiff of Munich” in the air if Russia were to invade, but denied making any accusations around appeasement.
Follow the latest updates below.
01:22 PM
‘Not a bad crisis’ for Boris Johnson and Ben Wallace
Vladimir Putin has “virtually invaded and taken over Belarus of last few weeks and and no one seems to care”, says Mutaz Ahmed, our Comment Journalist.
“Britain’s position on Ukraine has been quite a hardline one – our position, as Ben Wallace wrote in his essay in response to Putin’s essay, is that Vladimir Putin is someone not to be trusted, someone who will attempt, whatever the West does, to enact this thuggery on Ukraine.”
What the crisis has done is created a rare moment of unity in British politics, caused at least in part by the Salisbury poisonings: “The Prime Minister can pretty easily stand up and be tough, and it’s a good look to be tough and he can do that without expecting much opposition. It’s not a bad crisis for Boris Johnson, he can give some very good, strong speeches, looking very prime ministerial.”
For Danielle Sheridan, the “grief” Putin felt from the demise of the Soviet Union “was something that has stayed with him throughout his life… So he obviously yearns to reform the Soviet Union.”
And it is no coincidence Ben Wallace is now the most popular Cabinet member among Conservative grassroots voters: “However this plays out, he is coming out very well, and he’s been all over Europe meeting with allies to show Russia that the UK is standing up.”
01:13 PM
Is Putin a modern man reacting to a new world?
Is Vladimir Putin a figure of the past, or is he something new? asks Francis Dearnley, our Assistant Comment Editor.
If he’s a figure of the past, then often he’s talked about as being a Soviet throwback, or perhaps even a modern tsar, but there’s been a lot of interesting things that have been written more recently, which have attempted to argue that he’s a modern man reacting to a modern world using modern methods in an attempt to make something new.
It is not the failure of democracy in Russia, but it is the rise of this Russian authoritarianism, which is new and is doing things differently, and perhaps speaks to a collectivised, data driven technocratic state.
That is, in a sense, not just Russia’s future, but something that all of us in the West should be very concerned about. This has been an ongoing crisis, but it has a very long history.
01:10 PM
No sign of Ukraine de-escalation amid ‘underhand’ Russian tactics
There is no sign of any de-escalation in Ukraine as things stand, says Danielle Sheridan, our Political and Defence Correspondent.
“I think the the big development everyone was waiting to see was whether or not there would be an invasion. We were told it would happen at 1am UK time and that did not take place.
“Putin said that he was de-escalating, that he was withdrawing troops. However, actions speak louder than words and as things stand we haven’t seen troops moving away from the Ukrainian border, so everything is kind of up in the air at the moment. But this idea that an invasion is imminent remains on the cards.
The cyber attack carried out on Ukrainian government, military and banking sites yesterday “shows that dirty games are being played, and if it’s not troops invading then they’re doing it underhand online”.
“There is a lot to be said for this idea Putin hasn’t even decided what he wants to do yet.”
01:01 PM
‘We don’t see any withdrawal yet’
Ukraine hasn’t yet seen any evidence of Russian troops pulling back from the border, President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Speaking to the BBC at a military base in western Ukraine, he said: “We don’t see any withdrawal yet, we’ve just heard about it.”
“I think all normal people expect de-escalation,” he said.
His statement comes as Russia said military drills in Moscow-annexed Crimea have ended and that soldiers are returning to their garrisons, a day after it announced a first troop pullback from Ukraine’s borders.
12:46 PM
Sir Keir Starmer: Conservatives must look more closely at party donations
Sir Keir Starmer has stressed the importance of standing “united with our allies and united with Nato” in the face of the Russian threat to Ukraine.
“It’s also important that in the UK our political parties are united in relation to Russian aggression,” Sir Keir told BBC News.
“But I do want to see the Government going further in relation to sanctions. I don’t think they’ve used the powers they’ve already got in relation to what they’ve already done and I don’t think they’ve looked closely enough at their own donations.
“I think any donations to the Conservative Party that have any link to Putin should be looked at very, very carefully and I want to see further sanctions put in place as soon as possible.
“We’ve been waiting for an economic crime bill for some time now – it needs to happen, it needs to happen fast and we’ll push the Government all the way on this.”
12:34 PM
Twitter Spaces: What is Putin’s plan?
What is Vladimir Putin’s overarching strategy – is he a Soviet throwback, a modern Tsar, or something new entirely?
Join our Assistant Comment Editor Francis Dearnley, our Comment Journalist Mutaz Ahmed and our Political and Defence Correspondent Danielle Sheridan for a Twitter Spaces on the current Russia-Ukraine crisis, hosted by David Knowles, at 1pm GMT.
Set a reminder to tune in and listen live below:
12:13 PM
Keir Starmer: The focus has to be on Epstein’s victims
Sir Keir Starmer has refused to be drawn on calls from the Labour MP for York Central for the “withdrawal” of the Duke of York’s ducal title.
Rachael Maskell this morning called on Prince Andrew to drop his Duke of York title to show “respect” for people living in the city.
“It is to be welcomed that he has now pledged to support the fight against the evils of sex trafficking and its victims,” she said.
“To demonstrate his seriousness in this endeavour, and his respect for those affected by abuse and the people of our city, I would ask that his first act of contrition is to confirm his support for the withdrawal of his ducal title.”
“I’m not going to comment on the details of it, but I think the focus has to be on the victims of sexual abuse in this case.”
12:06 PM
How expert bias toward the Covid catastrophe has been exposed
When in 2016 Michael Gove claimed that “the people of this country have had enough of experts,” the great and good were shocked and alarmed, recalls Ryan Bourne.
Gove was seen as fanning the flames – emboldening an anti-intellectualism that would trash the role of expert knowledge in policy making.
For offended academics, the opposite of expert-driven policy was populist politicians ignoring evidence entirely.
That was always a false dichotomy, of course, as the pandemic proves. Specialist expert failure these past two years has been pervasive, whether in epidemiological modelling or macroeconomics.
In fact, “the people who reasoned best across multiple domains, and made a lot of the right calls, were often generalists with significant experience talking to both political decision-makers and the educated general public,” says American public intellectual Tyler Cowen.
Ryan Bourne: Covid shows experts must be held to account
11:59 AM
Breaking: Met launches cash-for-honours investigation into Prince Charles’s charity
Scotland Yard has launched an investigation into allegations of a ‘cash for honours’ scandal involving the Prince of Wales Foundation.
The investigation was launched following reports that offers of financial help were made to secure honours of citizenship for a Saudi national.
The inquiry is being led by the Met’s Special Enquiry Team, the same unit that is in charge of the ‘partygate’ investigation.
11:57 AM
Breaking: Starmer says Prince Andrew settlement ends ‘sorry chapter’
The settlement between the Duke of York is the end of a “sorry chapter” , Sir Keir Starmer said as he called for a focus on sexual abuse survivors.
Sir Keir declined to comment on the details of the case in light of the fact it has been “settled”.
“In any of these issues, whoever is involved, my starting point is always the same – which is to think about the victims of sexual abuse,” the Labour leader told reporters.
“Across the world there are many, many victims and we should always start from that perspective.
“Whatever the rights and wrongs of this settlement, and it does seem to end a sorry chapter, I think it’s very important we don’t lose sight, don’t lose focus, on the victims of sexual abuse.”
11:55 AM
Levelling up cash only a ‘small refund’ in wake of austerity, says Rachel Reeves
The Government’s “levelling up” funding represents a “small refund” after years of austerity, the Shadow Chancellor said.
Rachel Reeves dismissed the £56million allocated by the Government to Stoke-on-Trent as she talked up Labour’s £600million proposal to support ceramics and other energy-intensive industries amid a spiralling global crisis.
Speaking on a visit to Stoke yesterday, Ms Reeves described the money as a “drop in the ocean”.
“A manufacturing business has said that they can’t use the apprenticeship levy, because it’s very restrictive on the types of courses and training,” she said.
“They are training and skilling up young people but the apprenticeship levy is too rigid, it’s not working for them. What does that say about our skills policy?
11:43 AM
‘The EU deserves never to recover from its shameful Ukraine failures’
Crisis doesn’t shape character; it reveals it, writes Madeline Grant.
And so it has been with the European Union and its handling of events in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s motivations may remain unclear, but regardless of whether the ongoing military escalations on the Ukrainian border are the preamble to a full-scale invasion, or merely some stress test of Western resolve, there is no doubt that the EU’s reaction has been found wanting.
The bloc emerges as fractured; unable to agree on military support or economic sanctions, divided between bilateral and multilateral modes of engagement.
While Poland and the Baltic states offer Ukraine military equipment and France makes its own overtures to Vladimir Putin, Germany’s response has been a mixture of vacillation and outright conciliation.
Ukraine has highlighted other historic Achilles’ heels too; a deplorable lack of investment by EU members in their own defence capabilities; the distinct reluctance of Germany and other member states to end their reliance on Russia for energy; Italy’s cosy commercial ties with Moscow, and much more. As it turns out, there is nothing like a crisis on its external border to expose the EU’s internal dysfunctions.
Madeline Grant: The broken EU empire is devoid of morality
11:31 AM
London braces for sanctions to hit its Russian cash cow
There will be nowhere to hide for companies linked to the Kremlin if Russia attacks Ukraine, Liz Truss vowed on Tuesday morning. Her promise of sanctions will have triggered a moment of deja vu for many.
Similar threats of tough measures were wheeled out by Theresa May after the poisoning of the former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury in 2018.
But Russian state energy empire Gazprom held a successful bond sale in the City just days later. The Russian embassy even mocked the UK after the deal, writing on Twitter that demand for the bond sale was “three times higher than the placing [€750m]. Business as usual?”.
Reminded of that deal on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Ms Truss insisted it will not happen again.
Kremlin-led Gazprom, a lucrative source of business for the Square Mile, is a likely target for financial penalties.
Lucy Burton, our Banking Editor, has the story
11:24 AM
Children aged five to 11 will be offered vaccines, confirms Nicola Sturgeon
Scottish children aged five to 11 will be offered vaccines, Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed ahead of the publication of an official guidance.
Vaccines for children in that age bracket were deemed safe by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) at the end of last year.
But there are reports of an impasse between No 10 and No 11 on whether all children in England should be offered a vaccine.
The announcements by the First Minister follows confirmation by the Welsh government that it will take the same approach as lockdown restrictions are eased.
“Although it has yet to be published officially by the JCVI, like colleagues in Wales we have received advice from the Joint Committee for Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) which recommends Covid-19 vaccination for all children aged five to 11-years-old,” Ms Sturgeon said.
“I can confirm that ministers have considered this draft advice and are content to accept its recommendations.”
11:08 AM
The Tory faithful have a new darling – but it’s not Truss
Few politicians have emerged from the events of the last few weeks with their reputations enhanced, but the Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, is the exception, observes Iain Dale.
His cool and deft handling of the Ukraine crisis has impressed even those who felt that he was only appointed because of his long-term support for Boris Johnson.
So impressed are some of his fellow MPs that they even whisper about him having become a contender for the leadership. They can’t have failed to notice that he has overtaken The Trussette in the monthly Conservative Home popularity polls, and he has done it without trying to take the form of a Margaret Thatcher reincarnation.
Certainly, he has resisted the oh-too-obvious photo opportunities that his predecessors loved so much. He doesn’t need to prove his credentials. He just gets on with the job, a lesson some of his more iridescent colleagues could learn from.
Iain Dale: Is Ben Wallace the man to save Nato?
11:00 AM
Priti Patel to push tech giants to ban ‘legal but harmful’ content
Priti Patel is preparing to go to war with big tech companies as she pushes for them to ban “legal but harmful” content generated by users.
The Home Secretary is looking to amend the wide-ranging draft Online Safety Bill – which seeks to protect children using the internet – to argue that the liability of internet giants should be increased.
Facebook and Google would be among the companies covered by new liabilities, as Ms Patel seeks to clamp down on issues including fraud and radicalisation.
She is said to have written to Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, and Mark Spencer, the new Leader of the Commons, setting out the proposals in more detail.
Full story: New laws would see Ofcom given more powers
10:47 AM
Jeremy Warner: Why fracking offers false hope
Why did no one think of it before? wonders Jeremy Warner. Lift the ban on onshore fracking, and miraculously all our worries about energy security and soaring fuel bills would be over.
No more cost-of-living crisis, no more blackmail from Putin’s Russia.
Why, we could even become a net exporter of gas, like the US, and thereby ease the plight of our poor benighted European neighbours, hopelessly dependent as they currently are on the Russian bear.
I exaggerate a little, admittedly, but that was the thrust of an open letter at the weekend from a group of prominent Conservatives, including Lord Frost, the former Brexit minister, and now something of a standard bearer for the Conservative Right, calling on the Prime Minister to give fracking another go.
Would that it were that simple.
Jeremy Warner: UK shale is quite unlikely to be viable
10:25 AM
Strict Covid rules did not keep Scotland’s deaths below England’s
Nicola Sturgeon is facing more pressure to ditch her draconian approach to Covid-19 restrictions after an analysis showed it had not prevented Scottish death rates from rising above England’s during the delta and omicron waves.
The Scottish Tories said it was time for the First Minister to trust Scots to take personal responsibility for how they manage the risks of the virus and claimed the data cast doubts over the effectiveness of her strategy of “bringing in restrictions on a whim”.
The Financial Times found that despite the SNP maintaining a legal requirement to wear face coverings in public places last summer and introducing vaccine passports, this did not stop death rates rising above England, where the measures were not in place.
England is to end all its Covid regulations on Feb 24 while Wales has indicated that its rules are likely to be replaced by guidance next month. Northern Ireland lifted its Covid laws yesterday.
Daniel Sanderson, our Scottish Correspondent, has this report
10:04 AM
Even if he has stood back, Putin is playing the long game, says Lord Darroch
Vladimir Putin is playing the “long game” as he seeks to secure a commitment Ukraine will not join Nato, the former British ambassador to the US said.
Lord Darroch cited a “classic Russian fear of encirclement” and claimed Vladimir Putin’s administration felt entitled to a “sphere of influence around its borders”
“They annexed Crimea eight years ago, they’ve been supported insurrection in the eastern provinces for eight years. I don’t believe he has given up his ambitions to force Ukraine to give up its ambitions to join Nato,” the peer told Sky.
“He can keep on putting pressure in various ways on Ukraine indefinitely, he might move troops back but he can put them back on the border very quickly if he chooses to. One way or another, I think Putin’s efforts to intimidate Ukraine are going to continue and we need to stay solid as a regional alliance.”
10:00 AM
‘London must escape its dirty Russian money addiction’
Has Moscow really blinked first? asks Ben Marlow, our Chief City Commentator. Some Russian troops in Belarus and Crimea have been pulled back from Ukraine’s border.
The deployment of nearly 150,000 troops was apparently nothing more than a giant military exercise and the West has been “humiliated and defeated without a single shot”, the Russian foreign ministry claimed, just a tad grandly.
Even if war has been averted – and with a master of dezinformatsiya such as Vladimir Putin involved, it may not have been – the threat from the Kremlin remains.
For a start, Britain should implement a concerted plan to cut off the flow of dirty Russian money into London. The motivation will never be greater than it is now.
Ben Marlow: London is a playground for Kremlin associates
09:51 AM
War unwelcome – ‘accidental, thermonuclear or otherwise’
Written questions in Parliament can border on the esoteric. But as pointed out by the Spectator diary, a former Labour peer – now sitting as an independent – recently tabled a question that would make anyone sit up and take note.
Lord Truscott wrote: “To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the remarks by Baroness Goldie on 29 November, what are their reasons for believing that a thermonuclear war with Russia would be an ‘unwelcome outcome’.”
Baroness Goldie, the defence minister, did not have any truck with his truly left-field query, responding: “It is difficult to envisage any scenario in which war, whether accidental, thermonuclear or otherwise, and irrespective of which other parties may be involved, would be a welcome outcome.”
She added the commitment that the Government is “committed to resolving issues peacefully and diplomatically wherever possible” – a stance that can only be welcomed.
09:38 AM
Seven per cent have a ‘positive’ view of politics
Just seven per cent of people have a “positive view” of politics in Britain today, a new survey shows.
Some 73 per cent have a negative opinion towards politics among the general population, polling for YouGov found, rising to 83 per cent among 2019 Labour voters – two per cent of whom have a positive view.
Among those who voted for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019, 61 per cent have a negative view of politics, while 16 per cent take a positive view.
Separate questions showed today’s politicians are seen as “less honest” and “less likely to follow rules”, while 77 per cent believe the ongoing “partygate” scandal is damaging to the wider political system and 88 per cent regard it as damaging to Boris Johnson.
09:29 AM
Bank governor wrong on asking for a pay rise, says Keir Starmer
Sir Keir Starmer has appeared to rebuke comments by the Bank of England governor suggesting workers should not ask for pay rises amid the cost-of-living crisis.
Andrew Bailey urged a “moderation” of wages earlier this month and said he would “broadly” implicitly ask workers not to demand a large pay increase.
But the Labour leader told reporters: “It’s very difficult to universally say to people ‘You are not entitled to even ask for a pay rise’.
“The Government is forever saying these are forces beyond its control, that it can’t do anything because this is all global. Actually, those tax increases are the Government’s own deliberate policy and half their own side don’t think they’re right.”
Labour would instead keep energy bills down with a one-off windfall tax on oil and gas companies, a policy that Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, dismissed as he set out his own package of support.
09:19 AM
Defence Secretary: Palace must decide if Duke loses title
Buckingham Palace must decide whether the Duke of York loses his last military title, the Defence Secretary has said.
It comes after Prince Andrew was yesterday confirmed to have reached an out-of-court settlement worth more than £12million with Virginia Roberts Giuffre.
The Duke, who has always vehemently denied the allegations, remains a Vice-Admiral as a former member of the Armed Forces despite having been stripped of his patronages, honorary military roles and HRH title in January.
“The decision on titles rests obviously with the Palace in the future,” Ben Wallace told Sky News.
“But it’s been pretty clear that this settlement is a recognition that he wants to bring this to a close and also recognise, as his statement says, the suffering and the challenges that the victims have been through as a result of their allegations, and their stand against the exploitation by Epstein.”
08:56 AM
Can a podcast really relaunch Matt Hancock’s career?
Throughout his dozen years in frontline politics, Matt Hancock has always made a point of doing things differently, writes Guy Kelly.
As a junior MP in 2012, he romped home in a charity horse race at Newmarket, becoming the first victorious parliamentarian jockey for almost a century. In his first major interview, aged 33, he humbly compared his coming career to Churchill, Pitt and Disraeli.
As minister of state for energy in 2014, he retweeted, then deleted, a poem suggesting Labour was “full of queers”. As culture secretary in 2018, he launched his own app, and then filmed himself trying parkour.
And we all remember what he was like as health secretary – the little NHS badge, the Partridge-style press briefing sign-offs, the running photo ops, the standing too close to women, the slogans, the vaccine-induced crocodile tears on Good Morning Britain, the PPE contracts, the CCTV stills with Gina Coladangelo…
He is a one-off. So imagine the nation’s collective disappointment to see that ‘Comeback Matt’ – who paused on the backbenches for about as long as it takes to say “Hands, Face, Space” – is having one of the more predictable midlife, post-marital breakdown resurrections of modern times.
Read more: The Health Secretary re-breaks his silence
08:42 AM
Germany agrees with Britain about Ukraine joining Nato, insists Defence Secretary
Ben Wallace has insisted Germany would agree with Britain and support Ukraine’s “fundamental” right to Nato membership after comments by the German Chancellor yesterday.
The German Chancellor said yesterday: “The fact is that all involved know that Nato membership for Ukraine is not on the agenda. Everyone must step back a bit here and make it clear to themselves that we just can’t possibly have a military conflict over a question that is not on the agenda.” He went on to describe it as an “absurd” situation.
Mr Wallace told Kay Burley at Breakfast: “My understanding of what Chancellor Scholz said is that Ukraine’s succession to Nato wasn’t on the agenda. Ukraine is on a path to joining Nato but a path that is obviously a very long-term path.
“But of course Nato’s fundamental policy is an open door policy, we will accept applications and consider as the 30 members anyone who chooses to join Nato. We do so in accordance with our values.
“That is a very important principle of Nato. Nato collectively reaffirmed that including the Germans only recently in response to the Russian government so that is the German position, it’s the British position and it is the position of all 30 members of Nato.”
08:31 AM
Ben Wallace repeats ‘whiff of Munich’ claim
Ben Wallace has repeated his claim there would be a “whiff of Munich” in the air if Russia were to invade Ukraine but denied any suggestion of appeasement.
Mr Wallace’s comments, made on Sunday, caused the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK to warn that panic caused by the West could ultimately play into the hands of Vladimir Putin and risked offending Nato allies.
The Defence Secretary told Sky News: “What I said was if Ukraine was invaded there would be a whiff of Munich, because in the Munich conference with Adolf Hitler in the late 1930s there were two paths there – one was appeasement, effectively… But the other part of Munich was the clear deception by Adolf Hitler.
“He had a plan already to expand way beyond the parts of the Czech Republic he was after, it was effectively a deception… I’ve been very consistent [about] President Putin that I have felt part of the argument about being encircled by Nato is in fact a straw man. [If] we all coalesce around this argument while all along if he invades Ukraine, it will have been a clear sign that he had a plan all along. And what we are seeing is a clear plan.”
Speaking to Times Radio, Mr Wallace added: “It was a charade, Adolf Hitler had other plans and I think the question here for President Putin is: ‘Did you have this plan all along?'”
08:24 AM
Foreign affairs committee chairman ‘wrong’ on scale of Russia threat
The Tory chairman of the foreign affairs select committee is “wrong” on the scale of the threat posed by Russia to Ukraine, Ben Wallace said this morning.
The Defence Secretary was asked about comments by Mr Tugendhat that appeared to suggest that between 130,000 and 150,000 troops was not enough to cause “severe” problems with Ukraine.
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“The Russians have overwhelming forces over Ukraine and if they really wish to inflict violence and invade they could do that,” Mr Wallace told Sky.
“The Ukrainians would put up a brave resistance, I made it very clear to the Russians the Ukrainians would fight but those odds are overwhelming and no one should delude themselves that they’re not. I respect Tom a lot but I’m afraid he’s wrong on the scale and the figures on the military forces on either side of the equation.”
On what Britons in Ukraine should do, Mr Wallace urged them to seek to leave or avoid travel to Ukraine as President Putin is still to make a “final decision” on war.
08:19 AM
Good morning
Vladimir Putin is “ahead on points” over the West in the current Ukraine crisis and the threat of a “full-blooded” invasion has been overplayed, the former head of MI6 has said.
Here is the front page of your Daily Telegraph:
