Poland presidential election 2025: right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki wins, official outcomes present – dwell

US President Donald Trump made it clear he needed Nawrocki as Poland’s president and in the previous couple of days he additionally acquired public backing from Kristi Noem, the US secretary of homeland safety.

Final month, the White Home launched pictures of Nawrocki assembly Trump within the Oval Workplace – a tacit however unmistakable present of assist.

The conservative group CPAC held its first assembly in Poland final week to offer Nawrocki a lift, AP reported. Noem urged Poles to vote for him. Talking to the convention, she mentioned:

I simply had the chance to satisfy with Karol, and hear, he must be the following president of Poland. Do you perceive me?

The US has about 10,000 troops stationed in Poland and Noem instructed that army ties may deepen with Nawrocki as president.

A standard chorus from Nawrocki’s supporters is that he’ll restore “normality,” as they imagine Trump has accomplished. US flags typically appeared at Nawrocki’s rallies, and his supporters believed that he provided a greater likelihood for good ties with the Trump administration.

Forward of the election, our Europe correspondent Jon Henley spoke to consultants about what a Nawrocki win would imply for the nation’s overseas coverage. Right here’s a snippet of what he wrote:

Whereas in idea Polish presidents have restricted affect over overseas coverage, a win for Nawrocki, backed by PiS, would inevitably – and, finally, considerably – constrain Poland’s European ambitions, analysts say.

“We’re not so much talking direct policy consequences,” mentioned Piotr Buras of the European Council on International Relations thinktank. “But if Trzaskowski, Tusk’s candidate, loses, the message is that Poles reject him and his government.”

Disadvantaged of that legitimacy, Tusk “will struggle to play the big role in the EU he has started to play”, Buras mentioned. “His government will be weaker, its room for manoeuvre will shrink. It’s about Poland’s capacity to play a strong role on the EU stage.”

Tusk’s electoral victory two years in the past marked the start of Poland’s return to the European fold after two fractious phrases of populist national-conservative rule throughout which Warsaw clashed repeatedly with Brussels over rule of regulation considerations.

PiS additionally frequently picked pointless fights with Germany, and in lots of EU debates sided with the intolerant Hungarian authorities of the prime minister, Viktor Orbán, the bloc’s disrupter-in-chief, additional alienating Poland from the European mainstream.

The return of Tusk, elected on a promise to undo a lot of the PiS-era reforms, led to a sea change in relations, with the EU quickly unblocking greater than €100bn of funds it had frozen in retaliation for Poland’s backsliding on democratic norms.

Bolstered by a thriving economic system, rising prosperity and its strategic significance within the resistance to Russia’s warfare on Ukraine, Warsaw has reworked itself in two brief years into one of many EU’s most influential capitals, greatest buddies with Berlin and Paris.

However its full return to the EU fold might be full provided that Tusk can ship on these key reforms – particularly, rolling again PiS’s politicisation of the courtroom system – which have to this point been blocked by the outgoing PiS-aligned president, Andrzej Duda.

President Andrzej Duda, a conservative like Nawrocki, has thanked voters for collaborating within the election and congratulated his successor. In a submit on X, he wrote:

THANK YOU! For taking part within the presidential elections. For the turnout. For fulfilling your civic obligation. For taking duty for Poland. Congratulations to the Winner! Keep sturdy, POLAND!

Nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki is a former beginner boxer with a specific curiosity within the felony underworld. Right here’s extra from AFP:

The 42-year-old Nawrocki has been endorsed by the right-wing Regulation and Justice (PiS) social gathering, which ruled Poland from 2015 to 2023.

The social gathering is carefully allied with outgoing President Andrzej Duda – who has publicly backed Nawrocki – and is a long-standing rival of the ruling Civic Coalition.

Nawrocki campaigned below the slogan “Poland first, Poles first”.

Whereas he has pledged to proceed Poland’s assist for neighbouring Ukraine in opposition to Russia’s invasion, he has denounced the advantages given to warfare refugees.

He mentioned in a marketing campaign video in April that “social benefits will be above all for Poles” and that “in queues for doctors and clinics, Polish citizens must have priority”.

In Could, he claimed Ukraine “has not shown gratitude for what Poles have done” and accused President Volodymyr Zelensky of “insolence”.

He opposes Ukraine’s bid to hitch Nato and can be an admirer of Donald Trump and has mentioned Poland ought to concentrate on shaping and main Europe’s relations with the US president.

He served because the director of the World Conflict II museum in Gdansk from 2017 to 2021. Since then, he has led the Institute of Nationwide Remembrance, which investigates Nazi and communist-era crimes.

What does Nawrocki’s win imply for home politics?

Jakub Krupa

Whereas the function of the Polish president is largely ceremonial, it carries some affect over overseas and defence coverage and a crucial energy to veto new laws. This may solely be overturned with a 60% majority in parliament, which the present authorities, led by Donald Tusk, doesn’t have.

At stake is whether or not Tusk’s authorities will be capable to make progress on its electoral guarantees on the rule of regulation and social points, together with abortion and LGBTQ rights, after 18 months of adverse cohabitation with the opposition president, Andrzej Duda.

Nawrocki’s win is predicted to delay the impasse, making it tough if not inconceivable for the federal government to go any huge reforms earlier than the 2027 parliamentary election.

“Tusk knows the stakes and that if Nawrocki wins, he’s got a lame-duck administration for the next couple of years. And it will be worse than with Duda as Nawrocki will come in fresh, with a new mandate from what effectively turned into a referendum on the government,” Prof Aleks Szczerbiak, who teaches east and central European politics on the College of Sussex, mentioned previous to the election.

The populist-right opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Regulation and Justice social gathering (PiS), has gained Poland’s presidential election, defeating his pro-European rival Rafał Trzaskowski, in a nail-bitingly shut contest.

Official outcomes confirmed Nawrocki took 50.89% of votes within the runoff, with Trzaskowski on 49.11%.

Nawrocki’s victory is a significant blow for the coalition authorities led by Donald Tusk and is predicted to delay the present political impasse within the nation in addition to complicate the nation’s place in Europe.

The outcomes comes after a dramatic turnaround given the primary exit ballot revealed simply because the polls closed had instructed a slender win for Trzaskowski by 0.6pp, prompting him to declare victory.

Nawrocki didn’t concede, saying he remained assured he would win when all of the votes have been counted. “We will win and save Poland,” he mentioned. “We must win tonight.”

Throughout a bitterly fought and sometimes bad-tempered marketing campaign in latest weeks, the 2 males have provided very completely different visions of Poland, and the results of the race could have huge implications for the nation’s political future, given the president’s capacity to veto authorities laws.