Oscars Predictions: Supporting Actor – Will Star Power Help Contenders Like Brad Pitt and Tom Hanks With Academy Voters?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks - Elvis — Tom Hanks as Colonel Tom Parker

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: There’s star power in the supporting actor mix.

“Babylon” has equal amounts of passion and dread among those who’ve experienced the 188-minute classic Hollywood epic. This is proven by its “rotten” tomato score (as of 12/23, it’s 56%), but it still managed to land 11 Critics Choice nods. Oscar winner Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood”) was able to pick up a Globe nod and could translate similarly to Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush from the divisive “Vice” (2018), whose performance (and film) landed multiple nods despite mixed reviews.

And then there’s Tom Hanks, who could ride in with his co-star Austin Butler in the Baz Luhrmann biopic “Elvis.” He’ll also have his grouchy but lovable “A Man Called Otto” (contending in lead actor) to help keep the focus on him. A surprise and possible double-acting nominee?

WOMEN TALKING, from left: Ben Whishaw, Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection

Ben Whishaw has been highly respected among his peers, with standouts on television such as his Emmy-winning turn in the limited series “A Very English Scandal” in 2019. So, will his awards chances increase as audiences and industry voters see his remarkable work in “Women Talking,” which opens in theaters this holiday weekend?

Similar to Rachel McAdams who was the sole female voice in a predominately male cast in “Spotlight” (2015), for which she earned a supporting actress nod, Whishaw is the most prominent male actor in a sprawling ensemble who is might have trouble getting any of them recognized due to vote-splitting. So far this season, he’s picked up mentions from the Gotham Awards and a couple of other regional critics’ groups but failed to nab Critics Choice and Golden Globes.

The SAG Awards, which are far more open to TV actors crossing over, will be his best shot at recognition before moving on to the BAFTA voting body, which announces its shortlist on Jan. 5.

Whishaw must break up a possible double dip from two films — “The Banshees of Inisherin” with Brendan Gleeson and Karry Keoghan and “The Fabelmans” with Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. The four men are trying to ride on each of their film’s momentum to join Ke Huy Quan, the only safe bet (and front runner) for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

If two actors from two separate movies were to be nominated, it would mimic the supporting actress lineup of 1949. In that respective year, Mercedes McCambridge won the Oscar for “All the King’s Men” over four women from two films — Ethel Barrymore and Ethel Waters from “Pinky” and Celeste Holm and Elsa Lancaster from “Come to the Stable.”

We also have a pair of actors contending to be the sole mentions for their movies — Brian Tyree Henry for “Causeway” (unless Jennifer Lawrence can break into her competitive lead actress race) and Eddie Redmayne for “The Good Nurse” (unless a surprising adapted screenplay nom drops on Oscar morning). The sole acting nominees are hard to come by unless you’re a former winner (Tom Hanks in “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” and Christopher Plummer in “All the Money in the World”) or run the gauntlet with critics’ prizes (Willem Dafoe in “The Florida Project” and Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”). Voters will often watch a movie for multiple citations, but difficult to get them to view for only a single one.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

CAUSEWAY, from left: Brian Tyree Henry, Jennifer Lawrence, 2022. ph: Wilson Webb /© Apple TV+ / Courtesy Everett Collection

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank	Name	Film	Distributor
1	Ke Huy Quan	“Everything Everywhere All at Once”	A24
1	An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
2	Brendan Gleeson	“The Banshees of Inisherin”	Searchlight Pictures
2	Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
3	Barry Keoghan	“The Banshees of Inisherin”	Searchlight Pictures
3	Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
4	Judd Hirsch	“The Fabelmans”	Universal Pictures
4	A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
5	Brian Tyree Henry	“Causeway”	A24/Apple Original Films
5	A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.
Next in Line
6	Paul Dano	“The Fabelmans”	Universal Pictures
6	A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
7	Brad Pitt	“Babylon”	Paramount Pictures
7	A tale of outsized ambition and outrageous excess, it traces the rise and fall of multiple characters during an era of unbridled decadence and depravity in early Hollywood.
8	Eddie Redmayne	“The Good Nurse”	Netflix
8	An infamous caregiver is implicated in the deaths of hundreds of hospital patients.
9	Tom Hanks	“Elvis”	Warner Bros.
9	Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.
10	Ben Whishaw	“Women Talking”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
10	A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11	Ben Foster	“Emancipation”	Apple Original Films
12	Jeremy Strong	“Armageddon Time”	Focus Features
13	Woody Harrelson	“Triangle of Sadness”	Neon
14	Mark Rylance	“Bones & All”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
15	Micheal Ward	“Empire of Light”	Searchlight Pictures
16	David Lynch	“The Fabelmans”	Universal Pictures
17	Toby Jones	“Empire of Light”	Searchlight Pictures
18	Miles Teller	“Top Gun: Maverick”	Paramount Pictures
19	Andre Braugher	“She Said”	Universal Pictures
20	Viggo Mortensen	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
Also In Contention
21	Colin Farrell	“The Batman”	Warner Bros.
22	Edward Norton	“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story”	Netflix
23	Glen Powell	“Devotion”	Sony Pictures
24	Anthony Hopkins	“Armageddon Time”	Focus Features
25	Don Cheadle	“White Noise”	Netflix
26	Paul Dano	“The Batman”	Warner Bros.
27	Harry Styles	“My Policeman”	Amazon Studios
28	Raúl Castillo	“The Inspection”	A24
29	Bokeem Woodbine	“The Inspection”	A24
30	Ben Aldridge	“Spoiler Alert”	Focus Features
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—	John Way	“A Love Song”	Bleecker Street
—	Manuel Garcia-Rulfo	“A Man Called Otto”	Sony Pictures
—	Justin H. Min	“After Yang”	A24
—	Aaron Hilmer	“All Quiet on the Western Front”	Netflix
—	Albrecht Schuch	“All Quiet on the Western Front”	Netflix
—	Devid Striesow	“All Quiet on the Western Front”	Netflix
—	Edin Hasanovic	“All Quiet on the Western Front”	Netflix
—	Mortiz Klaus	“All Quiet on the Western Front”	Netflix
—	Thibault de Montlembert	“All Quiet on the Western Front”	Netflix
—	Jonathan Pryce	“All the Old Knives”	Amazon Studios
—	Laurence Fishburne	“All the Old Knives”	Amazon Studios
—	Alessandro Nivola	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
—	Chris Rock	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
—	John David Washington	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
—	Matthias Schoenaerts	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
—	Michael Shannon	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
—	Mike Myers	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
—	Rami Malek	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
—	Robert DeNiro	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
—	Timothy Olyphant	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
—	Norman Briski	“Argentina, 1985”	Amazon Studios
—	Peter Lanzani	“Argentina, 1985”	Amazon Studios
—	Anthony Hopkins	“Armageddon Time”	Focus Features
—	Jaylin Webb	“Armageddon Time”	Focus Features
—	Jeremy Strong	“Armageddon Time”	Focus Features
—	Dustin Hoffman	“As They Made Us”	Quiver
—	Britain Dalton	“Avatar: The Way of Water”	20th Century Studios
—	Cliff Curtis	“Avatar: The Way of Water”	20th Century Studios
—	Stephen Lang	“Avatar: The Way of Water”	20th Century Studios
—	Brad Pitt	“Babylon”	Paramount Pictures
—	Tobey Maguire	“Babylon”	Paramount Pictures
—	Andrés Almeida	“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”	Netflix
—	Iker Solano	“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”	Netflix
—	Aldis Hodge	“Black Adam”	Warner Bros
—	Alex Livinalli	“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”	Marvel Studios
—	Martin Freeman	“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”	Marvel Studios
—	Tenoch Huerta Mejia	“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”	Marvel Studios
—	Winston Duke	“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”	Marvel Studios
—	Adrien Brody	“Blonde”	Netflix
—	Bobby Cannavale	“Blonde”	Netflix
—	Evan Williams	“Blonde”	Netflix
—	Xavier Samuel	“Blonde”	Netflix
—	André Holland	“Bones & All”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Mark Rylance	“Bones & All”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Michael Stuhlbarg	“Bones & All”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Jeffrey Donovan	“Breaking”	Bleecker Street
—	Michael Kenneth Williams	“Breaking”	Bleecker Street
—	Guy Branum	“Bros”	Universal Pictures
—	Jim Rash	“Bros”	Universal Pictures
—	Luke Macfarlane	“Bros”	Universal Pictures
—	Miss Lawrence	“Bros”	Universal Pictures
—	Trevante Rhodes	“Bruiser”	Onyx Collective
—	Andrew Scott	“Catherine Called Birdy”	Amazon Studios
—	Joe Alwyn	“Catherine Called Birdy”	Amazon Studios
—	Brian Tyree Henry	“Causeway”	A24/Apple Original Films
—	Gustav de Waele	“Close”	A24
—	Igor Van Dessel	“Close”	A24
—	Scott Speedman	“Crimes of the Future”	Neon
—	Glen Powell	“Devotion”	Sony Pictures
—	Joe Jonas	“Devotion”	Sony Pictures
—	Thomas Sadoski	“Devotion”	Sony Pictures
—	Benedict Wong	“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”	Marvel Studios
—	Ethan Suplee	“Dog”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Kevin Nash	“Dog”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Luke Forbes	“Dog”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Robbie Gene Bevins	“Dog”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Harry Styles	“Don’t Worry Darling”	Warner Bros
—	Chris Pine	“Don’t Worry Darling”	Warner Bros.
—	Nick Kroll	“Don’t Worry Darling”	Warner Bros.
—	Allen Leech	“Downton Abbey: A New Era”	Focus Features
—	Brendan Coyle	“Downton Abbey: A New Era”	Focus Features
—	Dominic West	“Downton Abbey: A New Era”	Focus Features
—	Harry Hadden-Paton	“Downton Abbey: A New Era”	Focus Features
—	Hugh Dancy	“Downton Abbey: A New Era”	Focus Features
—	Jim Carter	“Downton Abbey: A New Era”	Focus Features
—	Jonathan Zaccaï	“Downton Abbey: A New Era”	Focus Features
—	Kevin Doyle	“Downton Abbey: A New Era”	Focus Features
—	Michael Fox	“Downton Abbey: A New Era”	Focus Features
—	Robert James-Collier	“Downton Abbey: A New Era”	Focus Features
—	Noah Jupe	“Dreamin’ Wild”	No U.S. Distribution
—	David Wenham	“Elvis”	Warner Bros.
—	Kelvin Harrison Jr.	“Elvis”	Warner Bros.
—	Richard Roxburgh	“Elvis”	Warner Bros.
—	Tom Hanks	“Elvis”	Warner Bros.
—	Aaron Moten	“Emancipation”	Apple Original Films
—	Ben Foster	“Emancipation”	Apple Original Films
—	David Denham	“Emancipation”	Apple Original Films
—	Grant Harvey	“Emancipation”	Apple Original Films
—	Sebastian Chacon	“Emergency”	Amazon Studios
—	John Patton Ford	“Emily the Criminal”	Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment
—	Theo Rossi	“Emily the Criminal”	Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment
—	Colin Firth	“Empire of Light”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Micheal Ward	“Empire of Light”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Toby Jones	“Empire of Light”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Ke Huy Quan	“Everything Everywhere All at Once”	A24
—	Dave Bautista	“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”	Netflix
—	Edward Norton	“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”	Netflix
—	Leslie Odom Jr.	“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”	Netflix
—	Austin Crute	“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”	Focus Features
—	Conphidance	“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”	Focus Features
—	Devere Rogers	“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”	Focus Features
—	Anthony Edwards	“Hustle”	Netflix
—	Ben Foster	“Hustle”	Netflix
—	Juancho Hernangómez	“Hustle”	Netflix
—	Kenny Smith	“Hustle”	Netflix
—	Robert Duvall	“Hustle”	Netflix
—	Ashton Sanders	“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”	Sony Pictures
—	Clarke Peters	“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”	Sony Pictures
—	Stanley Tucci	“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”	Sony Pictures
—	Matthew Duckett	“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”	Netflix
—	Alex Sharp	“Living”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Tom Burke	“Living”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Brett Gelman	“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”	Sony Pictures
—	Jason Kravits	“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”	Sony Pictures
—	Scoot McNairy	“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”	Sony Pictures
—	Shawn Mendes	“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”	Sony Pictures
—	Winslow Fegley	“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”	Sony Pictures
—	Stephen Graham	“Matilda”	Netflix
—	Asivak Koostachin	“Montana Story”	Bleecker Street
—	Gilbert Owuor	“Montana Story”	Bleecker Street
—	Oliver Jackson-Cohen	“Mr. Malcolm’s List”	Bleecker Street
—	Theo James	“Mr. Malcolm’s List”	Bleecker Street
—	Jason Isaacs	“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”	Focus Features
—	Lambert Wilson	“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”	Focus Features
—	Lucas Bravo	“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”	Focus Features
—	David Dawson	“My Policeman”	Amazon Studios
—	Morgan Spector	“Nanny”	Amazon Studios
—	Sinqua Walls	“Nanny”	Amazon Studios
—	Brandon Perea	“Nope”	Universal Pictures
—	Steven Yeun	“Nope”	Universal Pictures
—	Jonathan Tucker	“Palm Trees and Power Lines”	Momentum Pictures
—	Ethan Hawke*	“Raymond & Ray”	Apple Original Films
—	Ewan McGregor*	“Raymond & Ray”	Apple Original Films
—	Adrien Brody	“See How They Run”	Searchlight Pictures
—	David Oyelowo	“See How They Run”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Harris Dickinson	“See How They Run”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Reece Shearsmith	“See How They Run”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Andre Braugher	“She Said”	Universal Pictures
—	Tom Pelphrey	“She Said”	Universal Pictures
—	Ben Aldridge	“Spoiler Alert”	Focus Features
—	Bill Irwin	“Spoiler Alert”	Focus Features
—	Joe Alwyn	“Stars at Noon”	A24
—	Allan Corduner	“Tár”	Focus Features
—	Julian Glover	“Tár”	Focus Features
—	Mark Strong	“Tár”	Focus Features
—	Barry Keoghan	“The Banshees of Inisherin”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Brendan Gleeson	“The Banshees of Inisherin”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Andy Serkis	“The Batman”	Warner Bros.
—	Barry Keoghan	“The Batman”	Warner Bros.
—	Colin Farrell	“The Batman”	Warner Bros.
—	Jeffrey Wright	“The Batman”	Warner Bros.
—	John Turturro	“The Batman”	Warner Bros.
—	Paul Dano	“The Batman”	Warner Bros.
—	Peter Sarsgaard	“The Batman”	Warner Bros.
—	Brian D’Arcy James	“The Cathedral”	Hulu
—	Paul Dano	“The Fabelmans”	Universal Pictures
—	Seth Rogen	“The Fabelmans”	Universal Pictures
—	Eddie Redmayne	“The Good Nurse”	Netflix
—	Malik Yoba	“The Good Nurse”	Netflix
—	Nnamdi Asomugha	“The Good Nurse”	Netflix
—	Noah Emmerich	“The Good Nurse”	Netflix
—	Bill Murray	“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”	Apple Original Films
—	Russell Crowe	“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”	Apple Original Films
—	Bokeem Woodbine	“The Inspection”	A24
—	Raúl Castillo	“The Inspection”	A24
—	Harry Lloyd	“The Lost King”	Warner Bros.
—	John Leguizamo	“The Menu”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Nicholas Hoult	“The Menu”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Reed Birney	“The Menu”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Claes Bang	“The Northman”	Focus Features
—	Gustav Lindh	“The Northman”	Focus Features
—	Willem Dafoe	“The Northman”	Focus Features
—	Dylan O’Brien	“The Outfit”	Focus Features
—	Johnny Dlynn	“The Outfit”	Focus Features
—	Simon Russell Beale	“The Outfit”	Focus Features
—	Harry Melling	“The Pale Blue Eye”	Netflix
—	Robert Duvall	“The Pale Blue Eye”	Netflix
—	Jared Harris	“The Sea Beast”	Netflix
—	Michael Smiley	“The Silent Twins”	Focus Features
—	Treva Etienne	“The Silent Twins”	Focus Features
—	Zen McGrath	“The Son”	Sony
—	Matthias Schweighöfer	“The Swimmers”	Netflix
—	Pedro Pascal	“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”	Lionsgate
—	John Boyega	“The Woman King”	Sony Pictures
—	Toby Jones	“The Wonder”	Netflix
—	Tom Burke	“The Wonder”	Netflix
—	Colin Farrell	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	James Teeradon Supapunpinyo	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	Joel Edgerton	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	Paul Gleeson	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	Sahajak Boonthanakit	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	Tom Bateman	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	Tui Thiraphat Sajakul	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	Viggo Mortensen	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	Weir Sukollawat Kanaros	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	Russell Crowe	“Thor: Love and Thunder”	Marvel Studios
—	Paul Mescal	“God’s Creatures”	A24
—	Pete Davidson	“Bodies Bodies Bodies”	A24
—	Lee Pace	“Bodies Bodies Bodies”	A24
—	Christian Bale	“Thor: Love and Thunder”	Marvel Studios
—	Taika Waititi	“Thor: Love and Thunder”	Marvel Studios
—	Sean Patrick Thomas	“Till”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Frankie Faison	“Till”	Orion/United Artists Releasing
—	Jalyn Hall	“Till”	Orion/United Artists Releasing
—	Glen Powell	“Top Gun: Maverick”	Paramount Pictures
—	Jon Hamm	“Top Gun: Maverick”	Paramount Pictures
—	Miles Teller	“Top Gun: Maverick”	Paramount Pictures
—	Woody Harrelson	“Triangle of Sadness”	Neon
—	Ving Rhames	“Wendell and Wild”	Netflix
—	David Strathairn	“Where the Crawdads Sing”	Sony Pictures
—	Eric Ladin	“Where the Crawdads Sing”	Sony Pictures
—	Garret Dillahunt	“Where the Crawdads Sing”	Sony Pictures
—	Harris Dickinson	“Where the Crawdads Sing”	Sony Pictures
—	Luke David Blumm	“Where the Crawdads Sing”	Sony Pictures
—	Sterling Macer Jr.	“Where the Crawdads Sing”	Sony Pictures
—	Taylor John Smith	“Where the Crawdads Sing”	Sony Pictures
—	Don Cheadle	“White Noise”	Netflix
—	Don Cheadle	“White Noise”	Netflix
—	Sam Nivola	“White Noise”	Netflix
—	Ben Whishaw	“Women Talking”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Carloto Cotta	“You Won’t Be Alone”	Focus Features
—	Felix Maritaud	“You Won’t Be Alone”	Focus Features

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)

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