“Russia – the land of yesterday,” sang the talented West High cast of “Anastasia” recently in Iowa City.
Although the song referred to Russia’s Romanov era, while sitting in the theater I thought about Russia’s current war on Ukraine and its 1999-2000 war against Chechnya, a small Muslim-majority region on the Russian Federation’s southern border. The Russian army, in that “land of yesterday,” pulverized the Chechen capital of Grozny, targeting civilians to break the population’s will to resist.
Amnesty International estimates Russian troops killed some 25,000 Chechen civilians. Vladimir Putin, then prime minister, said of Chechen fighters, “if we capture them in the toilet, then we will waste them in the outhouse.”
This month, Russian columns north of Kyiv retreated back to Belarus in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance. What happened while Russian troops occupied this territory?
Nightly newscasts highlight destroyed towns, mass graves, body-strewn streets and harrowing tales of brutality at the hands of Russian troops. Putin’s apologists claim these reports are fabricated provocations, despite many of the atrocities being caught on video.
Beyond the horrifying human costs imposed on Ukrainian individuals and society, how might Russian atrocities influence the war’s wider political and diplomatic trajectory?
First, the atrocities will harden NATO resolve. On April 6, Germany’s intelligence service, the BND, briefed German officials about Russian radio intercepts concerning the killing of Ukrainian civilians and POWs in Russia-occupied territory north of Kyiv.
Soldiers slaughtering civilians in Ukraine is a particularly sensitive topic in modern Germany, and recent revelations may help those proposing tougher sanctions on Russia. Putin relies on oil and natural gas exports for 40% of government revenue; Germany remains one of Russia’s largest hydrocarbon customers.
Some analysts argue that Russia’s undiminished oil exports combined with higher oil prices due to the war means Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is basically self-financing. Russian atrocities may also spur Sweden and Finland to consider joining NATO; this would be a significant setback for Putin’s strategic goals.
Second, Russian atrocities have prompted the expulsion of about 400 Russian “diplomats,” (mostly intelligence officers under official cover). Finland, Austria, Lithuania, Japan and others have booted Russian embassy employees engaged in non-diplomatic activity. While these expulsions will not crimp Putin’s war efforts immediately, they will disrupt his espionage, propaganda and intimidation efforts in many countries.
Third, the ghastly scenes witnessed in Russian-occupied territory will limit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ability to accept a settlement leaving part of Ukraine under Russian occupation. “Peace now” activists who seek an immediate cease-fire in place will lose traction, as Putin will likely pocket any territorial concessions and be free to commit war crimes against the unfortunate Ukrainians in that area. Even the pre-invasion status quo — Russians controlling the Donbas statelets and Crimea — will now be hard for most Ukrainians to swallow.
Finally, the allegation of war crimes may also harden the position of Putin and his henchmen. Putin, called a “killer” by U.S. President Joe Biden, will only be indicted for war crimes if he loses power and then is arrested or extradited by a new government.
Due to nationalism, tight control of Russia’s media, and repression, Putin’s domestic position seems secure at present. However, further battlefield setbacks or tightened energy sanctions could erode Putin’s domestic support.
He has yet to issue a general mobilization of Russia’s huge military reserve forces. Nevertheless, many observers believe Putin wants to achieve a major victory by the politically significant date of May 9 (WWII “Victory Day”).
The coming four weeks will be crucial to the next phase of the war and to the future of Ukraine, Russia, NATO and democracy.
Putin’s Russia deserves to be “the land of yesterday.” If Putin wins the war, will other autocrats see Putin’s Russia as the land of tomorrow?
Ron McMullen, a former U.S. ambassador and career diplomat, teaches political science at the University of Iowa.
This article originally appeared on Iowa City Press-Citizen: Opinion: For the world’s sake, Putin’s vile ambition must be stopped
