The NFL’s offensive panorama has been shifting dramatically for the reason that mid-2010s.
Bear in mind when passing was all the fad? Groups had been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging a staggering 480 passing yards per sport in 2015 and 2016.
It was a golden age for quarterbacks and receivers, whereas working backs watched from the sidelines as speeding yards plummeted to ranges not seen for the reason that late Nineteen Nineties.
However the winds of change are blowing once more. Because the 2024 season will get going, a pattern is elevating eyebrows throughout the league.
If issues proceed this manner, we could be wanting on the lowest common passing yards per sport in additional than three many years.
So, what’s behind this seismic shift? Jonathan Owens of the NFL on CBS factors to a defensive revolution.
“We’ve looked at several reasons why passing is historically down this season, and I believe there’s no singular reason. But a leading one? The NFL Numbers Folks show two-high safety looks have increased from 44 percent to 63 percent in just five seasons,” Jones wrote on X.
We’ve checked out a lot of the reason why passing is traditionally down this season, and I consider there’s no singular purpose. However a number one one? The NFL Numbers Of us™️ present 2-high security seems to be have elevated from 44% to 63% in simply 5 seasons https://t.co/OMV9vwTwPE
— Jonathan Jones (@jjones9) September 25, 2024
Groups are embracing multi-safety schemes like by no means earlier than, with formations akin to Cowl 2, Cowl 4 and Cowl 6 turning into the norm relatively than the exception.
Owens additionally dug deeper into Subsequent Gen Stats’ participant location knowledge, evaluating the primary three weeks of the 2024 season to the 2019 marketing campaign.
The visible distinction is placing. Gone are the times of aggressive press protection and lone excessive safeties.
As a substitute, we’re seeing what Owens calls a “red crab” formation: linebackers hanging again and safeties enjoying deeper than ever.
This defensive shift is having an actual impression on the sport.
Quarterbacks are feeling the squeeze, with the typical air yards per cross try dropping to a decade-low 7.7 yards.
Deep passes? They’re turning into a uncommon sight, falling from 10.2 per sport in 2019 to simply 7.7 in 2024.
As defenses adapt and evolve, offenses are being compelled to rethink their methods.
The times of simple deep bombs could be over, changed by a extra methodical, brief passing sport.
It’s a chess match enjoying out on fields throughout the league, and proper now, it seems to be like protection is making a comeback.
