Fertility charges are falling around the globe, however Republic of Korea is the outlier, with a fertility charge of 0.72 in 2024. The Worldwide Financial Fund, in its report on Korea’s financial scenario (usually fairly good), thought that Korea’s low fertility justified including an “Annex” to its most up-to-date report on Korea’s financial system: “Addressing Korea’s Declining Labor Force” (IMF Nation Report No. 25/41, Republic of Korea, 2024 Article IV Session, February 5, 2025).
This determine places Korea’s fertility charge in perspective. You possibly can see that the US fertility charge is somewhat above the common for the OECD international locations (principally the high-income international locations of the world). Nations with low fertility charges embrace Spain, Italy, and Japan. However even among the many nations with low fertility charges, Korea is a transparent outlier.
Because the report notes: “According to the UN’s population projection, Korea’s population is projected to decline by 17 million (equivalent to 33 percent of its current population) by 2070. The working-age population, which peaked in 2019, is projected to decline to 36.3 million (70.2 percent of total population) in 2024; 34 million (66.4 percent) in 2030; and 16 million (45.8 percent) in 2070. This decline is putting considerable strain on labor supply and hence potential growth of the Korean economy.”
Let me simply empahasize that opening line once more: with a fertility charge of .72, Korea’s inhabitants will fall by two-thirds in lower than a half-century. Setting apart excessive situations of warfare, illness, famine, and oppression, I have no idea of any nation which has gone by way of such an expertise.
To see this one other means, the highest determine exhibits Korea’s inhabitants by age group in 2023. As you’ll be able to see, the younger age teams are fairly small in comparison with the center age teams. The underside determine than initiatives out these tendencies to 2070. At that time, the center age teams are small in comparison with the aged. Additionally, in the event you take a look at the determine extra intently, you will note that the horizontal axis in 2070 is completely different from the determine in 2023, so the decline within the measurement of the bars is even bigger than it would at first seem.
Discussions of fertility can have a excessive emotional cost, as a result of they generally can sound as if the policymaker (or the harmless author) is telling folks–and girls specifically–what number of kids they “should” have. It’s a respectable concern. However decisions about kids are closely affected by different elements: value of housing and faculties, flexibility of office preparations, availability of childare, construction of labor pressure, and extra. In Korea, these different elements are inclined to lean towards having kids.
Take into account a few of these elements:
Housing prices. The IMF notes: “As of 2024Q1, it is estimated that median income families spend about 63 percent of household income for loan repayment of a median-priced home. The ratio is notably higher in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (151 percent), where the best jobs and education institutions are concentrated, and for larger living spaces needed to raise a child (153 percent for a property bigger than 135 square meters).” Fee of this measurement just about outline “unaffordable.” (For many who don’t learn metric, 135 sq. meter is about 1200 sq. toes; that’s, a typical measurement for a two-bedroom residence or condominium.)
The centrality of personal tutoring for kids. Moms in Korea are sometimes anticipated to oversea a regime of personal tutoring, which is seen as crucial to achieve entry to prestigous univerisities. The IMF: “Korea’s high private tutoring participation rates largely reflect fierce competition to enter prestigious universities. … A significant portion of parent’s income is thus spent on private tutoring. In 2023, 78.5 percent of Korean primary and secondary school students took private tutoring (Ministry of Education, 2024). Monthly average expenditure for private tutoring per student relative to household disposable income has increased sharply since 2015, reaching … roughly 10 percent of average household disposable income in 2023. Empirical analysis suggests that prevalence of private tutoring is negatively associated with country-level total fertility rate …”
A dual-structure workforce. Korea’s labor market has what is known as a “dual structure,” which implies that one set of jobs are extremely paid, extremely demanding, seniority-based and sometimes fairly safe, whereas the remaining jobs are much less well-paid, with restricted promotion prospects, and sometimes insecure. Thus, a mom in Korea could have a really exhausting time remaining on the highly-paid monitor–and in a dual-structure financial system, as soon as you’re off the highly-paid monitor, it is vitally troublesome to re-enter that monitor. Right here’s a determine displaying flexibility of working preparations. The US ranks close to the highest; Korea is close to the underside.
This determine illustrates the twin labor-market in Korea by displaying that momentary and self-employment in Korea are particularly excessive compared to different international locations.
Though the IMF report doesn’t point out this level, it additionally appears related to me that the custom in Korea has been for a married couple to maneuver in with the husband’s household, which has typically meant that the spouse find yourself doing family duties along with her mother-in-law. This sample has grow to be much less widespread over time, however the potential for such a residing association appears prone to discourage marriage and child-bearing for at the very least some girls.
The IMF report goes into element about how numerous coverage steps may offset Korea’s low fertility charges, at the very least to some extent. I must also add that the risks of extrapolation apply right here with some pressure: If Korea’s inhabitants and workforce decline with the pace of those predictions, then within the subsequent few a long time housing ought to grow to be considerably extra inexpensive, admissions at main Korean universities will likely be much less selective, corporations will likely be beneath strain to be extra versatile of their workforce, and so forth. Because the US skilled after World Warfare II, child booms are potential, too. Choices about what number of kids you “want to have” should not made in a vacuum.
