(Bloomberg) — Boris Johnson will face a leadership vote in his ruling Conservative Party, after a series of missteps and scandals became too much for scores of Tory Members of Parliament.
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Senior Conservative MP Graham Brady said Monday the threshold of at least 54 MPs — 15% of the Conservative total — has been met to trigger a confidence vote in Johnson, who became the first sitting prime minister found to have broken the law earlier this year.
Some MPs had requested holding off until after weekend celebrations marking Queen Elizabeth II’s 70 years on the throne. The secret ballot will be held for two hours from 6 p.m., with a result shortly afterward.
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Pressure on the British prime minister has been building for weeks over “partygate,” the media nickname for the illegal events in Downing Street during the pandemic for which Johnson received a police fine.
But discontent with Johnson’s leadership goes far beyond partygate for some MPs, who have been frustrated at being forced to defend controversial policies only for the government to be forced by public pressure into a U-turn.
Rebel Anger
A so-called windfall tax on energy firms has angered traditional fiscal conservatives, while others are angry that his plan to rip up the Brexit deal over Northern Ireland will see the Tories — who call themselves the party of law and order — breaking international law.
On Monday, former minister Jesse Norman published a letter to the prime minister excoriating Johnson and accusing him of “lacking a sense of mission.”
That so many MPs have lost confidence in him is a massive blow to Johnson, who led the Conservative Party to its biggest general election win in more than three decades in 2019. Still, it is by no means a given that a vote will bring an end to his premiership, and Johnson made clear he plans to come out fighting.
“Tonight is a chance to end months of speculation and allow the government to draw a line and move on, delivering on the people’s priorities,” a spokesperson for Johnson’s office said in a statement. The prime minister will address rank-and-file Tory MPs at 4 p.m. to make his case.
Cabinet Backing
Senior members of his cabinet, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Health Secretary Sajid Javid, said on Monday Johnson has their support.
“The prime minister will stand and fight his corner with a very, very strong case,” Javid told Sky News on Monday, before Brady’s statement. “So let’s just wait and see what happens.”
The problem for the Tory rebels is that triggering the confidence vote is the easiest part of the process to oust Johnson. Having secured 15% support, they now need a majority of the party’s 359 MPs to win a vote, with any abstentions altering the math.
Lacking Unity
With rebels coming from different wings of the party with disparate grievances, that has made it difficult to come up with a clear, unifying successor — especially as the big hitters in Johnson’s cabinet have not made a public move. The number of MPs with government jobs also makes it difficult for the rebels to get the 180 votes they need.
If Johnson wins the secret ballot, under party rules he would be immune from another vote for a year.
But history shows the reality is often much more complicated, with prime ministers usually significantly weakened even if they win. That’s because the depth of opposition is laid bare, both in the numerical outcome of the vote but also in the public comments by rebel MPs in the build up.
Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, won a confidence vote but was forced out months later, as the Tory wrangling over Brexit and the strength of their opposition to her policies made her position untenable. For Johnson, there are clear dangers ahead even if he wins on Monday.
Danger Ahead
Tory fears that Johnson could cost the Conservatives the 2024 general election will have been heightened by new polling suggesting the party is facing defeat in a special election in Wakefield on June 23. The seat is among the historically Labour-voting districts in northern England — the so-called Red Wall — that helped deliver a huge House of Commons majority for the Tories in 2019. On Sunday, pollster J.L. Partners put Labour 20 points ahead.
The party is also facing humiliation in a separate by-election due to be held in Tiverton and Honiton in southwest England on the same day. Bookmakers have the Liberal Democrats as favorites to take the Conservative stronghold. Both votes were triggered by Tory MPs stepping down over separate sex scandals.
That electoral threat has been a key driver as the push to unseat him gathered momentum in recent days. Johnson has already lost some key parliamentary seats and his party received a drubbing in local elections last month. With the Conservatives trailing Labour in opinion polls since December, much of Johnson’s appeal as a proven vote winner has worn off.
Uncertainty over Johnson’s future comes at a vulnerable time for the UK, with the economic fallout from Brexit and the pandemic leaving consumers facing the worst squeeze on living standards since the 1950s.
The cost-of-living crisis has been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which initially appeared to have saved Johnson from facing a confidence vote. But the drip-drip of Tories adding their name to the rebel ranks means Johnson is now battling to save his premiership.
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