An agreement to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal could be just days away, with negotiators from Europe and Iran making clear that they’ve reached the final hurdles.
Driving the news: Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, will travel to Tehran on Saturday to try to resolve one of the remaining disputes: Iran’s insistence that an investigation into its undeclared nuclear activity be dropped. The success of failure of Grossi’s visit could determine the fate of the deal.
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What they’re saying: All participants in the Vienna talks have been stressing that a deal is very close but not yet at hand.
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“There has been significant progress and we are close to a possible deal, but a number of difficult issue remain unsolved,” deputy State Department spokeswoman Jalina Porter said in a conference call with reporters.
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The British chief negotiator Stephanie Al-Qaq also said, in a Farsi-language tweet, that a deal was “very close” but “final steps” still remained.
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French negotiator Philippe Errera posted a photo of the European negotiating team and thanked them for their work over the past 11 months, in a possible signal that talks are concluding.
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Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh tweeted that regardless of the positive rumblings, “Nobody can say the deal is done until all the outstanding remaining issues are resolved.
What to watch: The biggest hurdle appears to be the IAEA investigation, which Western powers have said can’t be shut down until the agency’s concerns are addressed. Grossi’s visit is intended to find a formula that all sides can live with.
The big picture: Iran has dramatically accelerated its nuclear program since Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, and has also limited the access of inspectors. The deal would require Iran to dial back its nuclear program and restore the inspections, in exchange for sanctions relief from the U.S.
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President Biden has argued that returning to the deal would put Iran’s program “back in a box.”
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However, U.S. officials believe Iran’s nuclear advances mean that under a restored deal, Iran’s “breakout time” — the time needed to enrich enough uranium for a bomb — would be 6 to 9 months, rather than a full year as in 2015.
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