(Bloomberg) — Republican contenders for New Jersey’s congressional primary races are betting that the state’s blue wall is starting to crack.
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The June 7 election has drawn a massive field of 35 candidates, many of them Donald Trump acolytes who say they are energized by a stronger-than-expected GOP showing during last year’s state races, including a suspenseful governor’s contest decided on a 3% margin.
The far right historically doesn’t find favor in New Jersey. The governor’s seat and legislature are controlled by Democrats, and the state has voted for that party’s presidential candidate since 1992. Democrats hold 10 of the 12 congressional seats, and in November only one of those races, with an incumbent Democrat, is considered at risk of changing parties.
But flipping even one seat may have major consequences in a midterm election that could shift the balance of power in Congress to Republicans and rattle a reliably blue state like New Jersey.
In November, Democratic Governor Phil Murphy beat Jack Ciattarelli, a little-known Republican who rallied against abortion and headlined a “Stop the Steal” rally. Murphy became the first New Jersey Democrat to win a second gubernatorial term since 1977 — but his victory was far narrower than expected.
In that same election, New Jersey Republicans gained seven state legislative seats, narrowing the Democrats’ majority. Among them was Ed Durr, a 58-year-old truck driver and political newcomer who ousted Democratic Senate President Steve Sweeney, the highest-ranking state lawmaker.
Since taking officer, Durr’s proposed legislation — so far unsuccessful — has included prohibiting sexual-orientation and critical-race theory lessons in schools, expanding gun access and restricting abortions.
“It’s a huge awakening of people who politically were checked out,” said Ian Smith, a 35-year-old gym co-owner who found Fox News fame by refusing an order by Murphy’s administration to close during the pandemic.
Smith is among three Republicans seeking to run against Democrat Andy Kim in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district, a politically divided area of the state that voted for Trump by a narrow margin in the 2020 presidential election.
“People who are voting blue, and voted blue their whole lives, are starting to re-examine,” Smith said.
Trump Slogans
On his website, Smith criticizes “woke nonsense.” Other Republican candidates have also borrowed Trump buzzwords like “America First Republicans” in an effort to tap into the 41% of New Jerseyans who in 2020 voted for Trump, alongside 57% for Democrat Joe Biden.
That includes John Flora, the 63-year-old Republican mayor of Fredon, New Jersey, who is running in central New Jersey’s 7th District, where Tom Malinowski in 2018 became the first Democrat elected in six decades.
“Trump did expose New Jersey as well as many of the other progressive states to the idea that the alternative can and does work,” Flora said.
Malinowski is the state’s only Democratic seat with an incumbent who appears to be in danger, according to the Cook Political Report. Seven Republican are seeking their party’s nomination to run against him, including Tom Kean Jr., whom Malinowski defeated by just 1 percentage point in 2020. Kean’s campaign declined to comment.
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Even Republicans who are seen as too centrist face increasing competition from within their own party.
“There are cracks in the blue veneer,” said Tricia Flanagan, 57, a write-in candidate in the 4th District, which voted for Trump 61% to 38% in 2020. “If you are conservative as a Republican and come out and wear it as a badge, you can win.”
Flanagan is among the three Republicans going after 41-year Republican incumbent Chris Smith, who has sided with Biden in 42% of votes since Jan. 21, 2021, according to a FiveThirtyEight.com analysis. Smith’s solidly Republican district in central New Jersey, with a political map redrawn in December, gained an even larger slice of voters who are among the state’s most conservative. Smith’s campaign declined to comment.
“I call it the Alabama of New Jersey — we’ve never had a district so red,” Mike Crispi, a 29-year-old podcaster seeking the nomination, said in an interview.
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