As President Biden aims to further punish Vladimir Putin and his military by banning Russian oil and gas imports, the numbers that matter most are eight, 60, 20 and two.
About 8% of U.S. oil and gas imports last year came from Russia. Eight may not seem like a large number (51% comes from Canada), but turning away that energy supply at a time when gas prices are already at historic highs will wallop families’ bank accounts, not least because the cost of so many other products on which we rely tracks the price of fuel. Yes, the U.S. is now a net exporter of oil and gas — but it turns out, energy independence is functionally impossible in this complex, interconnected global economy.
Americans cannot and should not indefinitely pay such a price atop already escalating inflation if it’s solely symbolic. The move must meaningfully tighten the chokehold on Putin, increasing the odds that he will fail in his attempt to overtake Ukraine and subjugate Ukrainians.
But it won’t do that unless, following the American lead, our allies join in. Sixty percent is the share of Russian oil exports that go to Europe (20% goes to China), versus a paltry 2% coming here. As long as those far more Russia-dependent economies, especially Germany and the Netherlands and the U.K. and their neighbors, keep buying what Putin is pumping, he’ll continue to rake in billions of rubles — or trillions, as hyperinflation sets in — to fund his war.
What’s more, to make up for what’s lost, the United States may be forced to deepen economic ties with Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia, each of which has suppressed millions in its own way. We are not naive; we know wars often force moral compromises and alliances of convenience. Still, it would be ironic if an attempt to check a tyrant in Moscow empowers a nuclear jihadist in Tehran and a kleptocratic dictator in Caracas.
Turn away Russian oil, but do it with eyes wide open to the limitations.
