(Bloomberg) — A political deadlock has thrust Bulgaria’s president into a role of uncommon power, posing risks to Western efforts to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin for invading Ukraine.
After a fourth election in 18 months failed to produce a clear ruling majority, chances are slim that a new government will emerge soon. That has given President Rumen Radev, a former general who flew MiG jet fighters, in charge, with more power than his mostly ceremonial position usually commands in the NATO and European Union state.
Radev, a 59-year-old who holds a degree from the US Air War College, has rejected opponents’ claims that he’s too cozy with Moscow. But he won power two years after Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea on a campaign to lift sanctions, saying at one point the peninsula belongs to Russia. Since then he has criticized penalties over Putin’s invasion this year, and this month he refused to sign a declaration backing Ukraine’s membership bid.
Until a government is formed, a Radev-appointed interim cabinet is calling the shots. Having already drawn criticism for rekindling ties with Moscow, it represents a potential weak link for Putin to exploit as he tries to undermine Europe’s resolve to support Ukraine.
“The president is inching toward the pro-Russian camp, which suggests an interim government would steer Bulgaria away from its pro-Western position,” said Capucine May, an analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
The current government, appointed by Radev in August, has defended a decision to reopen talks with Russia’s Gazprom PJSC to restore imports. That coincides with Radev’s criticism that EU sanctions are damaging Europe’s economy, even as he condemns Moscow’s aggression.
“When we impose sanctions, we need a very deep and comprehensive analysis so that they don’t hurt the European economy irreversibly,” he told reporters in Prague at an EU summit last week.
His stance echoes criticism from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has struck energy deals with Moscow and called for sanctions against Russia to be lifted to help tame inflation.
Hungary and Bulgaria are also the only EU countries to officially withhold military aid from Ukraine. Radev has called sending weapons a “dangerous step toward involving Bulgaria in the war,” clashing with the growing effort by other members to arm Kyiv.
It’s not likely that Radev will be quickly supplanted as top decision maker, an unusual situation in Bulgaria, where the president is head of state and commander in chief, but most decisions are made by a prime minister backed by lawmakers.
Failure to form a full-fledged government could trigger a new snap election — a fifth in less than two years — although there’s no guarantee that would lead to a resolution. In the meantime, an interim cabinet can remain in place for months, and Radev will represent Bulgaria in major forums such as EU summits.
The government argues it isn’t a weak link concerning Russia and it’s trying to integrate deeper in the EU by pushing to adopt the euro currency, join the bloc’s visa-free Schengen zone and win membership in the OECD group of developed nations.
“We have continued working on all the processes of European integration,” Deputy Prime Minister Atanas Pekanov said in an interview.
Persistent Standoff
The winner of the Oct. 2 ballot, former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, has called for a compromise to end the stalemate. But other political forces have refused to work with Borissov’s party, accusing it of supporting graft. Chief among them is Kiril Petkov, who served as prime minister from December 2021 until infighting in his coalition forced him to step aside in August.
Petkov said the best way to remove Russian influence is to root out graft — and Borissov, who he says has kept communication lines open with Putin. While it’s unlikely that the interim cabinet will lead to a “U-Turn” in Bulgaria’s Euro-Atlantic orientation, its overtures to Moscow are worrying, he said.
“There is a tendency of the interim government to try to have more Russian-friendly policies, definitely,” Petkov said in an interview.
In the meantime, Radev’s ambiguous stance on Moscow is welcomed by many in the Black Sea nation, once the Soviet Union’s closest ally in eastern Europe. At least three of the seven parties elected in the Oct. 2 vote have pro-Russian sympathies.
But old connections only go so far. Borissov, who dominated Bulgarian politics for over a decade, made clear after the elections that he’s no friend of Putin.
“If we want to throw the country into a new election once again, that’s ideal for Putin,” he said.
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