No one, certainly not Russian President Vladimir Putin, expected Ukraine to hold Russia’s military machine at bay with such ferocity.
In the first few weeks of the war, the Kremlin forged ahead with an all-out bid to take Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and oust President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team. Today, Kyiv remains in Ukraine’s hands, as do other cities and towns Putin tried to subdue with ugly brutality. In his videotaped missives, Zelenskyy has inspired awe around the world. His fiery courage epitomizes the resolve Ukrainians have maintained, even in the face of existential peril.
Putin has been forced to recalibrate. He has turned his attention and fighting force toward the Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial eastern region, unleashing what has now become the next phase of this terrible, bloody conflict.
As bad as Russia’s barbarism has been up until this point, the world can expect it to get horribly worse.
It’s likely that Putin wants to notch a major triumph in the Donbas ahead of Victory Day on May 9, a hallowed commemoration in Russia of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. Of all Russian holidays, Victory Day is one of the most revered. During Putin’s years in power, it also has become prime fodder for the Russian leader’s propagandistic attempts to revive within Russians a sense of Soviet glory.
Using the day’s parade on Red Square, he brought back puffed-up displays of Russian firepower — showy caravans of tanks, intercontinental ballistic missiles and legions of soldiers goose-stepping past the Kremlin’s reviewing stand. It’s not hard to imagine Putin relishing the moment when, in front of all that military hardware, he can trumpet a major win over Zelenskyy’s forces in Ukraine’s east. After a series of humiliating failures against a smaller, under-equipped opponent, Putin desperately needs to convey to everyday Russians some measure of success on the battlefield.
Ukraine surely will do its utmost to ruin Putin’s plans. But it’s also incumbent on President Joe Biden, NATO and its Western allies to do their part.
It’s clear that Ukrainian forces will need a steady, stepped-up supply of munitions on every level — from bullets and shoulder-fired Javelin launchers to anti-aircraft missile systems. Biden’s recent announcement of an $800 million military aid package, including 18 howitzers and 200 armored personnel carriers, will help. But if and when Zelenskyy asks for more in the way of munitions, the West should not hesitate.
Ahead of the Donbas offensive, the Kremlin has sent the Biden administration an ominous warning. Stop shipping advanced weapons to Ukraine, or risk “unpredictable consequences.” Moscow did not specify what those consequences would be, but it’s not the first time that Putin has threatened the U.S. for shipping armaments to Ukrainian forces.
Biden and Western allies shouldn’t be cowed by the threats. Biden has made it clear that the U.S. will not send troops to Ukraine, and would only directly intervene if any NATO member were attacked by Russian forces. But Western leaders know that, without military supplies from NATO, Ukraine would have already succumbed to Russian forces. Ukrainian resolve has fended off Putin to this point, but without Western munitions, resolve wouldn’t have been enough.
And it won’t come close to being enough amid the war’s next phase. Some estimates put Russia’s troop strength in the east at as many as 40,000 soldiers, and reinforcements stand at the ready in Russia and Belarus. Ukraine has also seen the utter destruction Russia’s air superiority can inflict on cities like Kharkiv and Mariupol, the latter of which is on the verge of falling to Russian troops. With Mariupol secured, Russian forces would have a vital port on the Sea of Azov, as well as a land bridge between Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula seized by Moscow eight years ago, and the Donbas.
While keeping Ukraine rearmed is vital, so is squeezing Russia even harder with harsher sanctions. The European Union has begun plans for an embargo on Russian oil that could be approved and enforced within a matter of weeks.
Western sanctions already imposed on Moscow have dealt a body blow to the Russian economy. An oil embargo would have the added effect of depriving Putin’s war effort of billions of dollars every month. European countries that depend heavily on Russian oil — Germany, for example, gets a third of its oil from Russia — could balk at the move. But it’s European unity that has been critical to thwarting Putin’s despotic agenda in Ukraine. Any cracks in that unity would work in Putin’s favor, and likely doom Ukraine’s defense of sovereignty.
The war’s next phase is sure to inflict even more horror and carnage on an already besieged Ukraine. Ukrainians have already shown they will defend their nation no matter the cost. The U.S. and NATO must show that they stand alongside Ukraine by keeping its forces resupplied — and tightening the vise of sanctions on Russia’s murderous autocrat.
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