US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential Taiwan visit may worsen the troubled US-China relationship, but observers say it is unlikely to change Beijing’s agenda ahead of a key leadership reshuffle.
The tense situation across the Taiwan Strait is not expected to turn into a military conflict, or have an impact on President Xi Jinping‘s plan to secure a third term in power when the ruling Communist Party holds its twice-a-decade congress in autumn.
Nationalist sentiment is surging in mainland China and Beijing has warned of “forceful measures” if Pelosi goes ahead with the trip. Observers say its reaction if she does visit will be an indication of just how confident Xi’s China is.
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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi meets Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Monday. Photo: Handout via Reuters alt=US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi meets Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Monday. Photo: Handout via Reuters>
Pelosi’s visit to the self-ruled island – which Beijing claims and has vowed to take control of, by force if necessary – will reportedly be part of her Asian tour that began in Singapore on Monday. But she has yet to confirm if Taiwan is on the itinerary, which also includes Malaysia, South Korea and Japan.
Taiwan is a hypersensitive issue for Beijing – especially US arms sales and increasing official exchanges with Washington, which does not have formal ties with Taipei.
In a phone call last week, Xi told President Joe Biden that the US should abide by the one-China principle and that “those who play with fire will perish by it”. Biden tried to reassure Xi that US policy on Taiwan had not changed, but said Washington opposed unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the strait.
If Pelosi visits Taiwan, she will be the highest-ranking US official to do so in 25 years. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said it would cross Beijing’s “red line”, while the military held live-fire drills over the weekend off the coast of Fujian province – directly opposite Taiwan.
It comes at a politically sensitive time for Beijing. Xi is expected to enter a norm-breaking third term as leader at the party congress, but harsh Covid-19 controls have left the economy struggling, and relations with the West are in a downward spiral over China’s assertiveness and tacit support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A mainland-based political analyst familiar with Beijing’s thinking said the priority was to avoid any major disruption to the US relationship ahead of the party congress.
“China-US ties cannot deteriorate further and that was the tone set by the party before [Pelosi’s potential Taiwan trip was reported],” said the analyst, who did not want to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. “Beijing has grave concerns about the situation escalating, especially in the event of an accidental conflict.”
George Magnus, an economist and research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre, said Beijing and Washington were in a tough spot.
“[Pelosi’s] purported visit to Taiwan is clearly seen by China as throwing down a gauntlet, and by the US as the weaponisation of simply a trip by a senior politician,” he said. “They both seem to feel an obligation to react, and resist, respectively.”
Magnus said Xi would “want to appear in control and firm in his handling of what is regarded as a provocation” in the face of domestic and external challenges when he was seeking another term at the party congress.
“Although I think it is unlikely that his renomination as head of state and the party is seriously at risk, failure to be seen to stand up to the US could undermine his status and freedom of manoeuvre, and might encourage his opponents now or in his new term.”
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University, did not expect any retaliatory measures taken by Beijing to lead to military conflict.
“Despite the more ominous indications, the fundamental situation of the Taiwan problem should be regarded as largely stable at its bottom,” he said. “They have established quite firmly … each side’s bottom line and would be convinced that military conflict must be avoided absolutely until or unless it would be required absolutely.”
But Shi expected bilateral ties to worsen, and said “the possibility of accidental conflict has gone up significantly”.
For Beijing, the best-case scenario would be if Pelosi cancels the trip.
“It would be a major victory for Xi because he could claim the credit for successfully deterring the visit and reaffirming a bottom line on the Taiwan issue – that people like Pelosi aren’t allowed to visit,” said Deng Yuwen, a former editor at the Study Times newspaper, a party mouthpiece.
But even if she does go, it is likely to be an unofficial trip – and that would be a win for Beijing, according to Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
“Nationalism and support for Xi in China is stronger than ever before. Ordinary Chinese people feel that Xi is strong as he can manipulate the domestic propaganda into a narrative that he has scared the US and what might have been an official visit was changed to an unofficial one,” he said.
Wu said Beijing would try to avoid an overreaction that risked a military conflict with Washington just months ahead of the party congress.
“What Xi wants is a narrative that shows China is stronger than the US and that he’s in command – this is what Beijing wants,” he said. “Everything in China now is related to [Xi’s bid for] a third term and it is the top agenda. Xi will shout louder in condemning the US to show the domestic audience that he is strong.”
Dali Yang, a political scientist with the University of Chicago, also said that while a Pelosi visit could worsen tensions with Washington, it may not be bad news for Xi.
“An external challenge usually helps the party to strengthen its military and emphasise the party’s leadership, and it helps the cause of leaders with a nationalistic and a reunification agenda,” he said, adding that Xi would have to “keep the situation under control”.
Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the US-based Stimson Centre, said despite Beijing’s threats of using military force, the priority was stability in the lead-up to the party congress.
“[A Pelosi visit] will not endanger Xi’s plan [to stay on for a third term] as long as a war doesn’t break out,” she said. “It is embarrassing for him, but instability will be a bigger risk factor for him at this point.”
If the trip does go ahead, Beijing could react by firing missiles in Taiwan’s direction and sending more warplanes near the island, according to Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.
But he said there was no reason for China to overreact. “Xi is the most powerful leader since Mao – why would he have to even react to this?” Luft said.
“To be sure, the party apparatus will try to capitalise on such a visit, but an overreaction to a visit of an octogenarian who will soon be kicked out of her job as speaker … will only be a sign of insecurity, inviting more of the same,” he said.
“Self-confidence is the ability to exercise restraint in the face of provocations and disrespect. The world knows the purpose of the visit is provocation. What it is yet to determine is whether China is a confident superpower or an insecure and easily rattled wannabe.”
Additional reporting by Amber Wang and Jun Mai
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2022 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2022. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
