The sudden collapse of the Assad regime on 8 December 2024, which put an finish to the mukhabarat (secret police) state-dynasty that had dominated Syria for the previous 54 years, was unexpected by worldwide observers and even stunned most Syrians. The struggle raging since 2012 had pitted the regime in opposition to varied militias, together with ISIS; fuelled by worldwide sanctions, the end result was a humanitarian and migration disaster. Now, in a matter of weeks, hope for a greater future returned. Throughout the nation and within the diaspora, Syrians rejoiced.
However neither celebration nor shock have prevented fast motion by the brand new Syrian authorities on the diplomatic entrance. Led by the previous jihadist chief Ahmad al-Sharaa (nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Julani), Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has launched into a public relations marketing campaign aimed toward reassuring each regional and worldwide actors concerning the route the ‘new Syria’ will take. European leaders, for his or her half, have moved shortly to have interaction the de facto authorities, regardless of not lifting the terrorist designation on HTS. Officers of nations that had moved to normalize with Assad simply weeks earlier than his fall now travelled to satisfy those that had caused his downfall.
The flurry of diplomacy is comprehensible. Al-Sharaa and his ministers search recognition of their management, given HTS’s Al-Qaeda origins, and extra importantly for the nation, an finish to the crippling sanctions imposed by the US and EU on the Assad regime. As al-Sharaa and his international minister Asaad al-Shaibani repeatedly insist, funds have to circulation with a purpose to revive a decimated financial system.
However a sure mutuality characterizes the eagerness to kickstart optimistic relations post-Assad. European international locations are serious about a steady and palatable Syrian regime, and significantly within the return of Syrian migrants and refugees. The inflow of tens of millions of Syrians since 2015 is seen by their more and more unwelcoming host states to have brought on huge political disruptions, above all within the type of a resurgent far-right.
Ahmad al-Sharaa receives EU Commissioner Hadja Lahbib, 17 January 2025. Picture: EC – Audiovisual Service / Supply: Wikimedia Commons
Alongside conventional financial and safety pursuits, European leaders’ engagement with the brand new Syrian management may be motivated by the necessity to show political acumen within the Center East. The utter failure of European diplomacy in Gaza is just not but behind us.
Diplomacy meets transition
In a extremely fluid scenario, diplomatic exercise is just not in itself indicative of the route of political change in Syria. Tensions between the interior calls for accompanying transition and the exterior pressures emanating from Europe and the US complicate issues immeasurably. Within the first two months after Assad’s fall, a Turkey-backed al-Sharaa appeared to have been prioritizing international diplomacy over outreach to home and diasporic political actors. Regionally, his administration’s accomplishments up to now embrace being embraced by the Gulf states, topped by a February go to to the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have pledged monetary assist and have echoed Damascus’s plea to have sanctions lifted. Following the US lead, the EU not too long ago introduced a plan for a 12-month, partial suspension of sanctions, conditional upon the brand new authorities in Damascus assembly EU benchmarks on political inclusiveness and human rights.
However home politics has lagged behind. For weeks after Assad’s fall, Syrians had been held in suspense about what would occur subsequent. Lastly, on the finish of January, al-Sharaa was named president, formally kicking off the transition. The announcement got here in a ‘victory conference’ of the now unified militias that – sans the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces – will develop into the Nationwide Military. The following day, al-Sharaa introduced a short roadmap. Addressing Syrians for the primary time, he promised to nominate a ‘mini legislative council’ to place in place a provisional structure. In a nonetheless vaguely outlined course of, a brand new structure may also be drafted and, finally, elections held.
Civil society inputs and democratic calls for are very important to shaping this long-awaited, Assad-free political future. After many weeks of ready, a seven-person nationwide dialogue committee was introduced in February. After a collection of city hall-style assembly throughout a number of Syrian cities, a Nationwide Dialogue Convention was held in Damascus on 25 February, culminating in 18 resolutions and the reassurance of an in depth report documenting contributors’ contributions. However with out dismissing the chance the nationwide dialogue affords, the method has up to now been discovered wanting: there isn’t a a transparent calendar with a practical timetable and deadlines, no collectively agreed guidelines and procedures, no far-reaching agenda, and no impartial convenors.
In view of Europe’s well-oiled diplomatic relationships with non-democratic leaders within the area, to not point out the Gaza genocide, synchronized requires ‘inclusion’ will not be taken at face worth. However this doesn’t alter the truth that a broad cross-section of Syrians clearly anticipate the broadening and deepening of political participation. The nation’s revolution got here at a excessive value. Fourteen years of in style battle for freedom and dignity spiralled from peaceable protests into a posh, bloody struggle, with casualties within the lots of of 1000’s and the displacement (inside and exterior) of half the inhabitants. Numerous residents in and out of doors Syria are relying on being contributors and never simply observers of the transition. Decoding the dynamic political scenario in Syria due to this fact requires consideration each to diplomatic utterances in addition to native (and diasporized) Syrian positions – and to the encounters between them.
Europeans converge on Damascus
The photographs and movies of European leaders streaming into Damascus to satisfy the previous HTS chief Ahmad al-Sharaa have been among the many extra sudden developments within the area’s turbulent politics over the previous weeks. Excessive-level officers embrace Annalena Baerbock and Jean-Noël Barrot, the international ministers of Germany and France respectively, who visited the nation collectively in early January. They had been preceded by the top of the EU Delegation to Syria, Michael Ohnmacht. The German diplomat was appointed in September 2024 with the mandate of coping with a rustic formally nonetheless dominated by the Assad regime; in an ironic coincidence, he now represents the EU in its relations with a post-Assad Syria.
There have been cries of sexism within the western media when al-Sharaa refused to shake Baerbock’s hand. However the controversy was rebuffed by many Syrians, who considered it as not fairly respectful of spiritual and cultural traditions and protocols. Only a week later, Syrian international minister Asaad al-Shaibani readily shook Baerbock’s hand on the margins of the Davos assembly of the World Financial Discussion board.
The fixation on semiotic and cultural practices resembling handshakes and clothes could seem trivial. Nevertheless, the extraordinary reactions on the Syrian (and broader Arab) facet don’t emerge from a vacuum. They replicate a sensitivity to western dealings with Arabo-Islamic societies produced by lengthy histories of western colonialism adopted by ongoing interventions in postcolonial states resembling Syria. Orientalized discourses, whether or not in academia, media or politics, are all too acquainted. Within the present case, the substance of European leaders’ messaging usually gives the look of an japanese society that should be taught or reminded of civilized western requirements.
Statements by official European guests to Damascus level to 2 units of points. The primary is the crucial of together with ladies and minorities within the new techniques and constructions of governance. France’s international minister Barrot, for example, stated that he and Baerbock had ‘obtained assurances’ on the ‘broad participation – particularly of women – in the political transition’. The implication was that participation was a concession extracted from Sharaa. However in actual fact, the ladies and minorities subject was the headline of their joint assembly. Baerbock added a warning that EU funding wouldn’t be awarded to ‘Islamist structures’ within the nation.
Probably conscious of the hubbub surrounding Baerbock’s and Barrot’s go to, Italy’s deputy international minister Antonio Tajani emphasised financial cooperation and a shared civilizational pedigree after assembly al-Sharaa and al-Shaibani. However he stayed on-message concerning inclusion. Like the French International Minister, Tajani met with Christian communities, signalling a European curiosity within the age-old ‘minority question’ within the Arab East (al-mashriq al-‘arabi). The French have also confirmed ongoing support, alongside the Americans, for the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) still hanging onto territory in the northeast. The Kurds ‘must find their place in this political transition’, the French International Minister informed his US counterpart Antony Blinken in January.
In fact, the SDF subject is a sophisticated one involving separatist aspirations, oil riches, and a worldwide coalition combating ISIS. About greater than merely the ‘integration’ of SDF, it entails a historical past of political inequality, cultural repression, and socio-economic marginalization in state insurance policies, as effectively some degree of social discrimination. Nevertheless, the ‘minority’ label is a standard one in western therapy not simply of Kurds (non-Arab Sunni Muslims), but in addition Christians, Alawites, Shiites, and so forth. For many Syrians, the time period ‘minorities’ carries overtones of colonial divide-and-rule. They have a tendency to view the ‘minority’ ticket as a justification for the western pursuit of security-economic pursuits.
There may be additionally frustration that European coverage discourses usually deal with Syria (and different neighbouring international locations) as a bundle of separate ethnic and non secular identities mired in primordial conflicts, reasonably than as nations with lengthy histories of coexistence. Some Syrian commentators have referred to as for ditching all political references to non secular, sectarian or ethnic origin in favour of the ‘citizenship’ of Syrians no matter background. The brand new Syrian administration has most well-liked the time period ‘components’ (al-mukawwinat) to ‘minorities’ (al-aqaliyyat), and al-Sharaa and al-Shaibani have even begun to sprinkle the time period ‘citizens’ into their evolving political discourse.
One other instance of the minority subject utilized by the West to additional its safety pursuits considerations the Israeli occupation of (increasingly of) southern Syria, which like Israel’s destruction of most of Syria’s remaining army capabilities has gone unrebuffed by western allies. The Israeli prime minister’s latest remarks that Israel ‘will not tolerate any threat to the Druze community in southern Syria’ and that Israel won’t permit Syrian forces ‘south of Damascus’ have drawn the ire of Syrians, who’ve referred to as for protests in opposition to Israel.
A second characteristic of European discourses on Syria have been blanket directions for Russia’s departure. Within the days after Assad’s evening flight, the EU Excessive Consultant Kaja Kallas insisted that the closure of Russia’s bases be an agenda merchandise for the EU’s diplomacy in Damascus. She additionally drew a lesson from Assad’s fall: ‘Russia is not invincible’. Baerbock was additionally unequivocal: ‘it is time for Russia to leave its military base in Syria’, she intoned upon leaving Damascus. What Syrians object to in such statements is the continuation of regional and worldwide meddling. The US has prioritized its struggle in opposition to ISIS as its airstrikes proceed. European leaders, too, nonetheless mission their safety pursuits onto Syria, now in a time of peace-building reasonably than war-making.
None of that is to say that Syrians see Russia in a optimistic mild. Quite the opposite, Russia’s ‘scorched earth’ bombing of cities like Aleppo made Syrians worry the skies. Russia’s army intervention largely rescued the regime from collapse because it fought off quite a few insurgent factions, and Bashar al-Assad himself stealthily escaped to Moscow on 8 December. Nonetheless, al-Sharaa’s administration, possible in tandem with Turkey, has not but settled the query of Russia’s presence. Whereas there are unconfirmed stories that the Syrian authorities have cancelled port administration contracts with Russia, Damascus is reportedly nonetheless in talks with Russia about whether or not it should depart from their airbase in Hmeimeim. No matter settlement is reached, the purpose is that worldwide pressures stay ample even after management of the nation has modified fingers – and that these are a supply of tensions.
‘Revolutionary’ civil society?
Syrian social media, tv media appearances and printed political commentary has been in overdrive since 8 December. A convention of civic engagement, which appeared tentatively through the Damascus Spring within the early 2000s earlier than roaring into life after the 2011 revolution, has now been absolutely revitalized. Reactions of delight and astonishment on the rapid-fire diplomatic achievements of al-Sharaa and al-Shaibani are widespread throughout ideological tendencies. However whereas patterns are nonetheless tough to measure in any systematic sense, the positions of some segments of organized civil society are very clear.
The insistence on inclusivity has been expressed not simply verbally however by varied conferences between Syrian civil society leaders, together with ladies activists, and European diplomats, together with the EU Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Disaster Administration Hadja Lahbib. This interpenetration of worldwide, native and diasporized actors and discourses in Syria’s ever-shifting politics additional affirm the centrality of civil society since Assad’s departure. To grasp the political transition in Syria at the moment, one due to this fact must look past western interactions with al-Sharaa and his administration and deal with the function of civil society within the 14 years between the Syrian Revolution and the overthrow of the Assad dynasty.
In a largely Muslim nation resembling Syria, the place native traditions and types of company replicate indigenous histories and ‘modernities’, civil society doesn’t all the time meet the requirements prescribed by Euro-American understandings of the idea. The ‘autonomy’ carved out militarily by HTS in Syria’s Northern Idlib within the final 4 years of the Assad regime was, arguably, antithetical to that propounded in western theories of civil society. Elements usually thought of to be integral to civil society-driven change – e.g. peaceable protest, public disobedience, or ‘colour’ revolution – had been absent within the occasions main as much as 8 December. The civil society teams approximating or cooperating with western counterparts had been tangential at greatest to the model of spiritual and armed ‘civility’ immediately answerable for the collapse of the regime.
How, then, to know the concurrence, resembling it’s, between the inclinations and instructions of Syria’s civil society and people of the EU after the ouster of Assad? Right here the native hirak – or in style mobilization – comes into focus. Whereas not contributing militarily to the collapse of the Assad regime, a wide-ranging Syrian hirak has been lively over the previous 14 years of revolution, with teams taking part in quite a few roles and taking varied organizational kinds.
Hirak in transition
Syria’s multi-pronged civil society contains political our bodies fashioned within the early months of the 2011 revolution. But none of them – be it the Syrian Nationwide Council, the Nationwide Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (Etilaf), or the Excessive Negotiating Committee (HNC) – succeeded in asserting themselves after the autumn of Assad; they’ve now both recognised al-Sharaa’s presidency or fallen by the wayside. In accordance with the declaration issued on the finish of the HTS ‘Victory Conference’, revolutionary our bodies and revolutionary civil society will likely be dissolved.
There will likely be little remorse on the dissolution of Etilaf and the HNC, which have lengthy been deemed elitist and politically ineffective. However the native councils of opposition-held areas are considered extra positively by many. From Daraya close to Damascus to Syria’s north, they had been important centres of civic group and in some circumstances, democratic governance. If native administration is restructured, as is deliberate in reference to the brand new structure, these too might find yourself belonging to the revolutionary previous, even permitting for some sort of decentralization within the northeast or Suwayda within the south.
The prospect of the 1000’s of Syrian civil society organizations painfully constructed through the revolution being swallowed up or prevented from working offers many pause. Some CSOs are within the strategy of registering with the brand new authorities, however the exact contours of the state’s openness to civil society are nonetheless being decided.
Humanitarian work (together with that carried out by religiously oriented teams) was a necessity borne of struggle. Right here civil society stepped in to supply training, medical help, psychological assist, orphanages, and a variety of different wants for native populations that ordinarily the state would offer or a minimum of administer. Worldwide donors, each particular person, organizational and even governmental, have been key right here. A few of these teams will possible proceed working in a rustic the place the poverty fee remains to be 90% and medical infrastructure has both been destroyed by struggle or is sorely old-fashioned. The latest arrival of a Saudi medical mission mirrored the paucity of care and absence of certified personnel within the nation. The return of 1000’s of Syrian medical doctors from exile might trigger a disaster for Germany and different European international locations, however their companies will likely be welcome in Syria as long as there may be funding.
Whereas these humanitarian organizations will not be anticipated to subject declarations concerning the brand new powers in Damascus, some have. The Syrian Civil Defence Forces or White Helmets of worldwide renown have taken an lively function in working with the brand new authorities to rescue folks from jail, clear up cities, and the like. In a latest podcast interview, Raed Saleh, the director of the White Helmets, averred that he could be prepared to ‘hand over the keys’ of his group to a democratically elected authorities, and maybe return fortunately to his hometown.
Civil society additionally contains spiritual our bodies, essentially the most distinguished of which is the Syrian Islamic Council fashioned in 2014. Made up of imams from inside and out of doors Syria, it oversees a variety of spiritual and proselytizing (da‘wah) activities, and issues regular statements on political developments. As a kind of religious authority with a sizable following or ‘base’, it acts as a supply of assist and steerage for spiritual Sunni Syrians against Assad each within the nation and out of doors it. From the start of Rad‘ al-Udwan operations, the Islamic Council printed statements and made tv appearances backing the offensive. They prominently congratulated al-Sharaa when he was named interim president.
Such backing is notable given the Council’s public variations with HTS within the latest previous. Upon his return to Damascus, the top of the Council Shaykh Usama al-Rifa‘i, named Mufti of the Syrian Republic from his Istanbul diaspora in 2021, has had high-profile encounters with al-Sharaa, including at the funeral of his brother (also a Shaykh) Sariyah al-Rifai. It is not yet clear what the future of the Syrian Islamic Council’s official relationship with the brand new authorities will likely be. One main query is whether or not it should substitute or one way or the other be folded into the Spiritual Endowments (Awqaf) Ministry that, within the vogue of all Arab international locations, is the state arm overseeing spiritual actions.
On the different finish of the spectrum of Syrian civil society are organizations whose particular focus is human rights, transitional justice and democracy. Plenty of these teams – together with Baytna, The Day After, Badael and Madaniya – have robust connections to western and worldwide funding companies. Each Madaniya’s philanthropist donor and government director met al-Sharaa early after he took energy in Damascus and afterwards had been cautiously optimistic concerning the assembly. Because the well-known Aljumhuriya information and tradition web site put it, there’s a ‘reluctant’ dedication amongst many Syrian civil society actors to have interaction the brand new powers. The one various is opting out of the entire transition, an method antithetical to democratic, participatory aspirations.
Transitional justice, for instance, is a sticky subject in Syria: the size of crimes dedicated by Assad, his allies, and among the anti-Assad army factions is so huge as to have affected almost each household in Syria not directly. Most of the households of the victims of Assad’s prisons, whether or not departed or nonetheless lacking, maintain sit-ins in Marjah Sq. in central Damascus, demanding data and accountability. Photos of their family members adorn a monument within the Sq.. That is a part of the daunting strategy of transitional justice in Syria that may absolutely take years.
One indication of the potential for cooperation and openness between these teams and the (former) HTS leaders was the First Syrian Convention for Transitional Justice held in Damascus on the finish of January, reportedly attended by an advisor to the Justice Minister. A collection of suggestions to the interim authorities, printed on the shut of the occasion, included the quick issuing of a short lived constitutional decree; clear communication with the general public; common conferences with civil society and citizen stakeholders; a prohibition on justice personnel responsible of human rights violations; safety of knowledge and proof for future trials; and, most significantly, ‘building a relationship of transparency and cooperation between civil society and state institutions’, thus offering the house for civil society to function and profit the nation with its experiences.
One other of the Transitional Justice Convention suggestions for each the state and civil society was the inclusion of girls in related transitional justice and political work. Gender inclusion and equality usually are not the ‘discovery’ of civil society upon listening to statements by western officers. Reasonably, a number of organizations have persistently and systematically addressed ladies’s financial and civic-political empowerment over the previous fourteen years. Some are religiously oriented, others are extra overtly secular of their platforms and calls for and clearly influenced by worldwide norms and insurance policies, together with the UN Ladies, Peace, and Safety Agenda. The Syrian Ladies’s Political Motion memorably held its first convention from Damascus in January 2025, a few of its members assembly with visiting western officers.
Whereas there’s something of a cultural divide (secular vs. spiritual, westernized vs. regionally oriented) in Syrian ladies’s activism, akin to that present in most different Arab-Muslim international locations, it isn’t essentially ironclad. The discourses of many teams and people are altering. Which may be one cause why an early interview by Ayesha Al-Debes, the brand new authorities’ appointee as Head of the Ladies’s Workplace, provoked such controversy. Her feedback a couple of ‘new model’ for Syrian ladies, pointed dialogue of girls’s maternal and household function, unfavorable remarks about foreign-funded, ‘self-styled’ feminist ladies’s teams, and her suggestion that she wouldn’t hearken to these with whom she disagreed, spurred debate amongst Syrians throughout the political-ideological spectrum for days. On prime of the problem of increasing the breadth of civic house, ladies’s society teams face the conundrum of the best way to interact each other in civil, and civically productive vogue.
Trying forward
For the foreseeable future, Syria’s new leaders will face the duties of persuading regional and worldwide world leaders to ease sanctions, of rebuilding a rock-bottom financial system, and of handle the regular inflow of returnees. They might want to do that whereas searching for to keep up order and safety in a territory that’s not but absolutely beneath their management. On the European facet, leaders who for years have more-or-less boycotted the Syrian state and dealt nearly completely with civil society teams must shift gear and direct diplomatic consideration to the brand new (interim) state officers, whereas maintaining conferences with civil society teams.
Syrian civil society, too, is in flux. Formal and casual organizations of ‘revolutionary civil society’ are, in spite of everything, comprised of odd residents wanting to restart and rebuild their lives in what’s being referred to as the Third Republic. Some are returning residence, though others are unable to take action or continuing with extra trepidation. Even when the foremost subject on Syrians’ minds is livelihoods and dwelling preparations, civic and political considerations are alive and effectively. Expressions and value determinations of all method of public statements and choices immediate passionate exchanges on-line and off.
The uncertainty of the second is mixed with the scent of chance, one thing sensed not simply by Syrians, however by Europeans too. A democratic Syria is just not but received. However with the demise of Assad, it’s nearer now than ever earlier than. European officers ought to take be aware that simply as Syrians made their very own revolution, so they need to cleared the path into their very own post-Assad future.
