When Jean-Claude Juncker turned president of the European Fee in 2014, he declared that accession negotiations would proceed over the following 5 years, particularly with the international locations of the Western Balkans, however that there can be no new enlargement earlier than 2020. His assertion was harshly condemned within the Western Balkans and Juncker needed to soften his tone.
Ten years later, not one Western Balkan candidate has joined the EU. However for many politicians in these international locations, that is no trigger for dissatisfaction. For them, the endless journey in the direction of the European Union looks like a good prospect.
Pretending to be implementing reforms and introducing European requirements, whereas in reality being solely occupied with entry to European funds, is a typical type of hypocrisy amongst Balkan politicians. However even coming into the EU shouldn’t be a failsafe safety in opposition to undemocratic processes. Some Western Balkan international locations have both proven indicators of democratic backsliding even after becoming a member of the EU or face sturdy inside challenges that undermine the democratic system.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU’s enlargement coverage in the direction of the Western Balkans has grow to be extra resolute. The difficulty now shouldn’t be whether or not the EU desires these international locations, however whether or not it could actually depart them out. As Russia revives its imperialist ambitions, envisioning a Eurasia stretching ‘from Lisbon to Vladivostok’ (Dmitry Medvedev), the safety danger of exposing a part of Europe to the Kremlin’s affect is just too nice for the EU. German Overseas Minister Annalena Baerbock not too long ago described EU enlargement as a ‘geopolitical necessity’, saying that the EU couldn’t permit itself ‘grey areas’ within the Balkans.
Encouraging messages from the EU
Understandably, European officers stay targeted on international locations instantly threatened by Russia’s aggressive insurance policies – in different phrases, direct navy intervention. However retaining the Western Balkans oriented westward continues to be very a lot on the EU agenda. EU leaders proceed sending encouraging indicators in regards to the area’s European prospects.
Based on EU overseas coverage chief Josep Borrell, the candidate international locations, together with the Western Balkans, have a ‘historic window of opportunity’ to bind their future to the EU. The bloc’s envoy for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, Miroslav Lajčák, has affirmed that membership prospects at the moment are ‘stronger and clearer than ever’.
At a December summit, EU leaders known as on the Western Balkans to implement decisive reforms to speed up accession. The summit declaration that they adopted highlighted rule of regulation, preventing corruption, human rights and financial overhauls as key priorities. The summit additionally promised the area over €6 billion in support, made conditional on enacting such reforms.
However this optimistic temper might not final indefinitely. There isn’t a united European entrance, nor a common consensus that Russia poses the first risk. After the EP elections, it’s probably that there will likely be extra MEPs sympathetic to the Kremlin and against EU enlargement than has been the case through the present legislature.
In the end, nonetheless, the central problem stays the political realities within the Balkan states themselves. EU members situation encouraging rhetoric, however developments on the bottom can’t be discounted. The Western Balkan international locations are formally on the European path and have declared EU membership to be their main goal. However whether or not their politicians are actually working in the direction of it’s one other matter. Extra broadly, it must be requested to what extent European values are rooted within the particular person Balkan societies, and what the inhabitants’s angle in the direction of the EU actually is.
Serbia’s anti-Europeanism
It has been 5 years since Serbia opened any new chapters in its negotiations with the EU. Though integration has not been ended formally, the regime in Belgrade is doing all the pieces in its energy to estrange Serbia from the EU.
All energy within the nation rests with one man: Aleksandar Vučić. The president wields whole management, brazenly handpicking authorities members. The premier, Ana Brnabić, boasted that she addresses Vučić as ‘boss’, and high-ranking state officers take each alternative to emphasize they’re solely placing his insurance policies into follow.
Many of the press are additionally beneath the president’s management. The media lynching of political dissenters and critics of the federal government is a day by day incidence. Establishments are taken over and subjugated to the ruling occasion and free elections are unattainable. Corruption is rife and the intertwining of political and legal buildings is just too advanced for investigative journalists to unravel.
Serbia was singled out for criticism on the current EU summit in Brussels for not imposing sanctions on Russia and never harmonizing its overseas coverage with the EU’s, regardless of having voluntarily dedicated itself to doing so. Such censure has been voiced again and again for the reason that starting of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Not solely has Serbia not imposed sanctions on Russia, however the loyalist media have grow to be a platform for rabid Kremlin propaganda. Sputnik and RT, each of that are banned within the EU, keep it up enterprise as traditional. Paradoxically, these Kremlin outposts should not even essentially the most radical pro-Russian media within the nation. The demonisation of democracy, liberalism, European values and all the pieces from the West is the core content material of most Serbian media.
Relatively than embracing EU requirements of rule of regulation, media freedom and democratic norms, Vučić seems bent on making a Russian satellite tv for pc within the Balkans – at the same time as Belgrade accepts European funding and support. His ruling Serbian Progressive Occasion brazenly celebrates Russia’s governance mannequin whereas mocking the EU. It’s unsurprising that solely 46% of Serbian residents favour EU membership, in keeping with an October 2022 ballot.
Vučić is systematically working to destabilize the area, particularly in international locations with a considerable Serbian ethnic group: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo. His associates promote a ‘Serbian World’ idea mirroring Russia’s revanchist imaginative and prescient, aiming to attain Nineties-era Larger Serbia ambitions – for now by ‘peaceful’ means. But the EU maintains a coverage of appeasement, with diplomats failing to pry Vučić from Moscow’s orbit regardless of occasional European Parliament criticism.
Certainly, the most recent EU decision calls for an unbiased probe into suspected electoral fraud throughout Serbia’s December 2022 parliamentary and native elections. It threatens to droop funding if direct authorities involvement in fraud is uncovered and requires auditing EU pre-accession support amid longstanding transparency issues.
However with Vučić persevering with to tighten his grip on energy, undermining democratic establishments and fanning ethnic tensions, Serbia seems to be more and more much less like a real EU membership candidate. The empty overtures from Belgrade will now not suffice.
Montenegro beneath malign affect
Among the many international locations of the Western Balkans, Montenegro has taken the lead in Euro-Atlantic integration. It joined NATO in 2017, opened all thirty-three negotiation chapters and curbed Russian affect. However the shortcomings in its struggle in opposition to corruption, rule of regulation failures and associated points, Montenegro had been on a clearly charted European course supported by a majority of the inhabitants.
Then got here the 2020 elections, ending many years of rule by the Democratic Occasion of Socialists (DPS). After the change of presidency, Montenegro formally continued with its integration course of, and western officers predicted that the nation would grow to be a member of the EU inside 4 years. However issues look totally different on the bottom.
Russian affect is more and more prevalent, particularly by buildings related to the regime in Belgrade. One instance: In 2021, Vladimir Božović, the founding father of the net newspaper IN4S, was appointed rector of the College of Montenegro (and reappointed for a second time period this 12 months). IN4S is among the most ardent spreaders of Kremlin propaganda and the Larger Serbia narrative, together with fixed denial of the genocide in Srebrenica.
The current change of presidency in Montenegro has been accompanied by the rising affect of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) within the nation’s politics, elevating issues over the erosion of secularism. A collection of processions organized by the SPC, with assist from pro-Serbian events and Serbian media, paved the way in which for the federal government transition. Representatives of the SPC have now grow to be vital gamers in political life, steadily consulted by public officers on varied problems with nationwide significance.
The Church is a centralized establishment led from Belgrade by Patriarch Porfirije, a long-time ally of Vučić who constantly propagates the official insurance policies of the regime. The newest instance of the SPC’s alignment with Serbia’s agenda is the Patriarch’s Easter epistle, during which Porfirije echoed Vučić’s marketing campaign in opposition to a current UN Decision on the Srebrenica genocide. Particularly, he repeated the regime’s false declare that the Decision declared the complete Serbian individuals to be genocidal. The Montenegrin authorities have adopted go well with, additionally proposing amendments to the Decision aimed toward supporting Serbia’s marketing campaign, and emphasizing that guilt can’t be attributed to anybody nation, ethnic or non secular group.
Whereas Montenegro stands out as the first among the many Western Balkan nations to hitch the EU, there are issues it may observe a path much like Hungary if malign Russian and Serbian affect is left unchecked. Such a state of affairs shouldn’t be far-fetched. The present president of Montenegro’s parliament, Andrija Mandić, was sentenced to 5 years in jail in 2019 for planning terrorist acts and making an attempt to undermine Montenegro’s constitutional order in a bid to stop the nation from becoming a member of NATO. After the 2020 elections, an appeals courtroom overturned Mandić’s sentence and acquitting him. The trial highlighted the presence of anti-western forces inside Montenegro.
Insurmountable obstacles in Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bosnia-Herzegovina acquired official candidate standing in December 2022, and the European Council determined to open negotiations on the nation’s EU membership in March this 12 months. Based on a current survey by the Directorate for European Integration of Bosnia-Herzegovina, 73.3% of respondents supported becoming a member of the EU; the approval price was 86% within the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina however solely 50.6% within the Republika Srpska, the semi-autonomous ethnic Serbian entity inside the nation.
The Republika Srpska entity is dominated with an iron fist by Milorad Dodik, a person beneath US sanctions. Seen as Putin’s principal puppet within the Balkans, Dodik’s loyalty surpasses even that of Vučić, who’s thought to be a extra pragmatic politician. Dodik persistently advocates for the Republika Srpska to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina and be included into Serbia. For the reason that begin of the full-scale struggle, he has met repeatedly with the Russian president, and final 12 months acquired from Putin the Order of Alexander Nevsky for his contributions to Russian-Bosnian cooperation. Dodik vocally helps Russia’s ‘special operation’ in Ukraine, stating throughout a go to to Moscow final 12 months that: ‘We understand that this is not a war between Ukraine and Russia – this is a clash between Russia and the West, which is trying to use Russia as a way to further inflame this war.’
A report submitted to the United Nations by the Excessive Consultant for Bosnia and Herzegovina states that the authorities of the Republika Srpska, led by Dodik, are actively undermining the Bosnian state, its competencies, establishments, and the Dayton Peace Settlement itself.
Whereas Dodik’s potential to trigger severe battle in Bosnia-Herzegovina shouldn’t be nice, he’s fairly able to hindering the nation’s European prospects and sabotaging all efforts in the direction of reforms and EU membership. The opposition in Republika Srpska shouldn’t be a lot better – its politicians are united in incurable nationalism, the denial of struggle crimes and genocide, and glorification of struggle criminals, in the beginning Ratko Mladić. On this respect, they totally concur not simply with Vučić’s regime, but in addition with a big a part of the Serbian opposition, in addition to influential mental, educational and ecclesiastical circles.
Half of Bosnia-Herzegovina is dedicated to anti-European and anti-liberal values, and it enjoys the assist of Serbia on this. To summarise: there are obstacles on Bosnia-Herzegovina’s path to hitch the EU that will likely be laborious to beat, regardless of the present European buildings’ good intentions.
Kosovo’s brick wall
Among the many Western Balkan nations, Kosovo stays the one one but to realize EU candidate standing. Regardless of making use of in December 2022, it has hit a brick wall. The crux of the problem is that 5 EU member states – Spain, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Cyprus – don’t acknowledge Kosovo as a sovereign nation. Spain’s stance stems from issues over emboldening separatist actions in Catalonia and the Basque area, whereas Greece’s place is linked to its historic ties with Serbia and the continued Cyprus dispute.
For years, the EU has mediated dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia in an effort to normalise relations between the 2 international locations. These efforts have been persistently obstructed by Serbia, which refuses to just accept Kosovo’s independence – a central tenet of Serbian politics throughout the political spectrum.
Kosovo’s authorities, led by Prime Minister Albin Kurti, is distinctly pro-western and pro-European, viewing the nation as a part of the Euro-Atlantic world. Nonetheless, the EU’s political buildings seem to favour Serbia, with the Serbian Progressive Occasion (SPS) regime controlling Serb-majority areas in northern Kosovo and utilizing them as a destabilizing pressure.
Allegations have surfaced of Serbia’s involvement in provocations and even a terrorist assault final 12 months within the village of Banjska, carried out by an affiliate of Vučić. Regardless of this, the EU has penalized Kosovo’s authorities.
Democratic deterioration in Croatia
Croatia turned the twenty eighth European Union member state in 2013. Nonetheless, the nation’s democratic growth has stagnated for years. For the sixth consecutive 12 months, Freedom Home’s annual ‘Nations in Transition’ report gave Croatia a rating of 4.25 out of seven, indicating an entrenched democratic deficit. The report cites widespread corruption in any respect ranges of presidency, a sluggish response from prosecutors to high-level graft instances, and issues over media independence. Public belief in Croatia’s judicial system stays among the many lowest within the EU.
Since 2016, the centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has led the federal government beneath the management of Andrej Plenković. For many of this time it has been in coalition with the minority Serb occasion. However after the parliamentary elections in April 2024, HDZ fashioned a brand new administration with the rightwing populist Homeland Motion, elevating fears of an additional democratic deterioration.
The Homeland Motion advocates tighter restrictions on migrant staff and stricter border controls. It additionally requires a withdrawal from the Istanbul Conference to fight violence in opposition to ladies and opposes LGBTQ rights. Its far-right ideology is prone to form authorities insurance policies beneath Plenković’s third time period as prime minister.
The opposition is little higher. Croatian President Zoran Milanović of the Social Democrats holds strongly pro-Russian views, opposes Ukraine’s NATO membership, criticizes western navy support and has predicted Kyiv’s imminent defeat by an ‘indestructible’ Russia. With an intolerant governing coalition and a pro-Kremlin opposition, Croatia’s democracy faces a decent squeeze.
Slovenia’s populist temptation
Of the previous Yugoslav states, Slovenia has progressed furthest on democratic norms, human rights and rule of regulation since becoming a member of the EU in 2004. Nonetheless, its democracy confronted a significant check throughout Janez Janša’s third time period as prime minister from 2020 to 2022.
Janša’s right-wing Slovenian Democratic Occasion clashed with EU companions and tried to steer Slovenia in the direction of an Orbán-style intolerant autocracy. Civil society fiercely resisted by fixed protests till early elections have been known as in April 2022. Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Occasion suffered a heavy defeat in opposition to Robert Golob’s newly fashioned social-liberal occasion Freedom Motion. The election noticed the very best turnout in 20 years. However whereas the populist risk in Slovenia has receded, the anti-democratic hazard persists, with Janša casting the European elections as a referendum on the brand new authorities.
Prospects
Serbia has emerged as a significant supply of instability and a hub for disseminating anti-European and anti-liberal sentiments throughout the Balkans. Aleksandar Vučić’s regime is accused of utilizing its affect over different Western Balkan nations to alienate them from the EU and the West, doubtlessly drawing them nearer into Russia’s orbit.
Critics argue that Vučić’s authorities destabilizes not solely the area but in addition the EU itself, as the problem of enlargement turns into intertwined with safety issues. Curbing Serbia’s affect over Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro is seen as a obligatory step for these international locations’ European integration prospects.
Classes from the EU’s previous engagement with Vladimir Putin recommend that appeasing autocratic leaders is the incorrect method. Nonetheless, accession is not going to inoculate nations in opposition to undemocratic forces, as evidenced by backsliding in EU member Croatia and democratic setbacks even in Slovenia, extensively thought-about essentially the most democratic nation within the Western Balkans.
All of this underscores that the struggle for democracy is an ongoing course of. Making certain stability and democratic consolidation within the Western Balkans stays a important problem for the area and the broader European venture.
