Australia information dwell: OECD economists slash progress estimates for Australian financial system and warn commerce wars could push costs up

Chalmers on Dutton’s referendum proposal to deport twin residents convicted of significant crimes

Wrapping up the interview, Jim Chalmers was requested about reviews opposition chief Peter Dutton was contemplating proposing a referendum to vary the structure to permit the federal government to deport twin residents convicted of significant crimes.

The treasurer stated these have been “important issues”, however argued Dutton would do “absolutely anything to avoid coming clean on his cuts or on any economic policies, and that’s what we see from an almost daily basis.”

Final time he tried to impose these legal guidelines, the excessive court docket threw them out. Now [he wants a] referendum to repair his errors.

We’ve taken a unique strategy. We rewrote his damaged legal guidelines to create a extra sturdy system to maintain our group secure…

He’s fairly weird. He needs one other referendum. I don’t suppose this concept will final lengthy, similar to a variety of the opposite issues that he stated in an effort to try to keep away from speaking in regards to the financial system and his cuts.

Chalmers responds to newest OECD outlook

As flagged earlier, the OECD’s economists have slashed their estimates for Australian actual GDP progress from 2.5% in 2026 to 1.8% and effectively beneath the Reserve Financial institution’s forecast of two.3%.

Responding to this, Jim Chalmers stated Treasury would offer its personal forecasts within the funds this time subsequent week for progress and inflation:

However we’ve had some very heartening information on each of these fronts. In latest occasions, progress has rebounded solidly within the Australian financial system. The non-public sector has began to take its rightful place as the important thing driver of progress in our financial system similtaneously we’ve received inflation down from larger than 6% and rising once we got here to workplace to now within the backside half of the Reserve Financial institution’s goal ban.

The treasurer stated Australia had made “a lot of progress” and amid world financial uncertainty, “we don’t want to put that progress at risk.”

And that’s why this shall be a accountable funds. It is going to be all about making our financial system extra resilient in unsure occasions. It is going to be about price of dwelling assist and constructing Australia’s future and persevering with to scrub up the mess that we inherited a couple of years in the past.

The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is talking with ABC RN forward of a serious financial handle in Brisbane later at this time.

He’ll define that Treasury estimates present the oblique influence of US metal and aluminum tariffs can be 0.1% of GDP by the top of the last decade. However how a lot worse might or not it’s if the US imposes its subsequent spherical of tariffs?

Chalmers responded that the “direct impacts are concerning, but manageable.”

It’s the broader, oblique impacts that come from this severe escalation of commerce tensions all over the world which is far more regarding to us.

This can be a new world of uncertainty and the tempo of change on this planet in the case of rewriting the principles of world financial engagement has quickened for the reason that new administration took workplace within the US. And so a few of these developments, they’re not shocking, however they’re seismic.

The treasurer stated the funds technique was “not to go for retaliation, but … to make our economy more resilient at a time of very serious global economic uncertainty.”

He added that the imposition of further tariffs can be “very concerning.”

We’re not uniquely deprived by the types of tariffs popping out of DC, however we deserve higher as a long-term companion and ally. These kinds of tariffs are self defeating, they’re self sabotaging, they’re a recipe for much less progress and better inflation – not simply within the US, however all over the world.

Experiences of mysterious foam washing up on South Australian seaside

Experiences have emerged of mysterious foam washing up on a South Australian seaside, with surfers turning into sick and obvious fish deaths.

Native surfer Anthony Rowland wrote on the Victor Harbor Fb group group that on Saturday, greater than 100 surfers have been contaminated at Waitpinga seaside.

All of us skilled a sore throat, dry cough and irritated eyes. Some even reported blurred imaginative and prescient. It lasted 24 hours or so.

He stated that within the following hours and days, there was “visible evidence” that “something weird is in the water.”

[There was a] lot of yellow foam and darkish inexperienced tidelines on the seaside after which on Sunday, whereas amassing water samples, I seen a variety of totally different species of fish lifeless on the seaside together with a handful of leafy sea dragons.

It has been reported that the Division of Major Industries and Areas is investigating whether or not a fish mortality occasion occurred – now we have contacted them for a press release, and can deliver you the newest once we can.

Labour-hire flight attendants to get pay enhance

Greater than 750 home flight attendants funnelled to Qantas by labour-hire corporations will get a hefty pay enhance, AAP reviews, in what’s being hailed as a victory for “same job, same pay” legal guidelines.

The win for the flight attendants comes after an settlement between the service and the Flight Attendants’ Affiliation of Australia, and means they may earn the identical pay as colleagues employed immediately by Qantas.

Their base pay will rise by as much as $20,00 a 12 months, in some circumstances amounting to a 42% rise, excluding allowances, from April. Union secretary Teri O’Toole stated:

A few of these crew will now not want three jobs to make ends meet and put a roof over the heads of their households.

The settlement has been hailed a victory for the federal Labor authorities’s similar job, similar pay legal guidelines, which closed the loophole that allowed labour rent staff to be paid lower than direct workers of a enterprise. The employment minister, Murray Watt, stated:

These are staff who put on the identical uniform, do the identical work, work the identical rosters however have been paid considerably lower than their colleagues. They do the identical job and so they deserve the identical pay.

Two retailers broken in Melbourne buying centre fireplace

Victoria police are investigating after two retailers have been considerably broken in a buying centre fireplace in a single day.

Emergency providers responded to reviews of the 2 retailers on fireplace at an Endeavour Hills buying centre about 12.45am.

Police stated nobody was inside both of the retailers on the time of the hearth, and that the hearth triggered “significant damage” to the 2 retailers.

A criminal offense scene has been established and an arson chemist will attend the scene [this] morning. The investigation into the circumstances surrounding the hearth stays ongoing.

Anybody with info is urged to contact Crime Stoppers.

Lambie backs Turnbull Aukus criticism

Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie was additionally on the As we speak present, and responded to these feedback from Malcolm Turnbull that Trump can be questioning “who are these dumb guys who agreed to this deal” – concerning Australia’s involvement in Aukus.

Lambie backed his feedback, and stated:

In fact [the US are] laughing … and it’s solely going to be a matter of time earlier than he asks for extra money … I feel that is actually extremely embarrassing the best way this deal has gone down, and I’d by no means have given him that cheque.

‘Tariffs are a self-imposed own goal on Americans’, Rishworth says

Over the weekend, the commerce minister, Don Farrell, informed Sky Information he was going to make Donald Trump “an offer he can’t refuse” in response to the US tariffs on metal and aluminium. He stated on the time:

I discover that dialogue is one of the simplest ways to resolve these points. Not retaliatory tariffs, however dialogue. What we have to do … is locate out what it’s that the People need by way of this relationship between Australia and the US after which make President Trump a suggestion he can’t refuse.

The social providers minister, Amanda Rishworth, was on the As we speak present this morning, and was requested what this supply is. She didn’t reply immediately, however stated:

Don is a good negotiator [who] managed to get a few of these very troublesome tariffs off our items we import to China. However in the case of the US, we’re making our place very clear that we need to see free and honest commerce and that the tariffs which have been imposed on our metal and aluminium are unjustified.

She added that “tariffs are a self-imposed own goal on Americans”.

That is one thing that we’re pursuing relentlessly to be sure that our producers are supported and that we do get exemptions …

Good morning

Emily Wind

And completely happy Tuesday – Emily Wind right here, signing on for running a blog duties. I’ll be bringing you our rolling protection for many of at this time.

As all the time, you’ll be able to attain out with any suggestions or questions by way of e-mail: emily.wind@theguardian.com. Let’s go.

Greens name to scrap unfavourable gearing and capital beneficial properties tax forward of funds

Sarah Basford Canales

The Greens say “it’s time” for Labor to think about scrapping unfavourable gearing and capital beneficial properties tax reductions forward of the federal funds subsequent week.

The minor occasion’s housing spokesperson, Max Chandler-Mather, and financial spokesperson, Nick McKim, wrote to the treasurer yesterday asking him to think about winding again the Howard-era adjustments that give property buyers tax break incentives to build up extra actual property.

Jim Chalmers conceded final 12 months he had requested the Treasury division to get recommendation on the tax adjustments however insisted it was not a part of Labor’s agenda.

Chandler-Mather and McKim described the tax breaks as “deeply unfair”, including it was tilting the enjoying subject in favour of “wealthy property investors” and making it tougher for first-time homebuyers.

The Greens have proposed phasing out each unfavourable gearing and the CGT low cost, however grandfathering entry to unfavourable gearing for folks with one current funding property.

A Parliamentary Finances Workplace evaluation, requested by the Greens final 12 months, confirmed tax income forgone because of the federal authorities’s insurance policies of unfavourable gearing and capital beneficial properties tax reductions will whole about $165.58bn between 2024-25 and 2033-24. The letter stated:

It’s time in your occasion to choose – do you characterize the property investor who owns 100 homes or do you stand with the younger instructor or nurse who has given up on proudly owning a house as a result of unfavourable gearing and capital beneficial properties reductions have stacked the deck in favour of the rich?

Labor can be returned to authorities with an elevated majority if the federal election was held tomorrow, the newest Roy Morgan survey finds at this time.

The ballot places Labor on 54.5% (up 3%) forward of the Coalition on 45.5% (down 3%) on a two-party most well-liked foundation.

It’s the ALP’s largest lead within the Roy Morgan survey for greater than 18 months since August 2023, tallying with our Important ballot out at this time that reveals Anthony Albanese’s approval score in optimistic territory for the primary time for the reason that voice referendum.

The Roy Morgan authorities confidence score elevated three factors to 84.5, with 35% of Australians saying the nation is “going in the right direction” (up 2%) in contrast with 50.5% (down 1%) who say the nation is “going in the wrong direction”.

The Coalition main vote lead was considerably decreased this week with help down 3% to 34%, whereas ALP help elevated 2.5% to 32.5% and help for the Greens was unchanged at 13.5%, Roy Morgan stated.

Assist for One Nation was steady at 5% and help for independents was unchanged at 10.5%. Michele Levine, boss of Roy Morgan, says:

The newest Roy Morgan survey reveals the Albanese Authorities gaining floor for a second straight week. Cyclone Alfred triggered intensive disruption to thousands and thousands of Australians within the final two weeks, however it has not damage the Authorities’s standing – which has improved throughout this era.

For the primary time in over 9 months the Albanese Authorities has a two-party most well-liked lead that will ship the occasion a transparent majority in Parliament – if this help holds up till the election.

Opposition Chief Peter Dutton made a uncommon misstep two weeks in the past when the Coalition asserted an L-NP Authorities would finish working from dwelling preparations and power public servants to return to the workplace 5 days per week. Though the Opposition Chief has walked this pledge again in latest days, it seems to have performed important injury to the Coalition’s broader help.

Extra on the OECD outlook

For extra on the OECD’s gloomy outlook, you’ll be able to see our world story.

Briefly: The Paris-based boffins have downgraded the prospects for world progress this 12 months and subsequent, together with a pointy hit to exercise within the US, Canada and Mexico. The OECD stated in its interim financial outlook report:

Vital dangers stay. Additional fragmentation of the worldwide financial system is a key concern. Greater and broader will increase in commerce obstacles would hit progress all over the world and add to inflation.

A broad-based additional enhance in commerce restrictions would have important unfavourable impacts on dwelling requirements.

Learn extra:

OECD economists slash progress estimates and warn commerce wars could push costs up

Patrick Commins

The Paris-based OECD – a 38-member grouping of wealthy nations, together with Australia – on Monday night issued a extra downbeat evaluation of the worldwide financial system, laying the blame on Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The OECD’s economists slashed their estimates for Australian actual GDP progress from 2.5% in 2026 to 1.8% and effectively beneath the Reserve Financial institution’s forecast of two.3%.

The identical report warned the rise in protectionism would push client costs larger and will power central banks to start out lifting rates of interest to comprise any inflationary resurgence – though the inflation outlook for Australia remained largely unchanged and even decrease in 2026 as slower progress bites.

Jim Chalmers will warn Australia should give attention to resilience over retaliation because the Trump administration overturns the principles which have ruled the worldwide financial order for the previous 4 many years.

The treasurer will ship a serious financial handle in Brisbane at lunchtime at this time, and we’ll deliver that to you reside. Learn extra:

Good morning and welcome to our dwell information weblog. I’m Martin Farrer with one of the best in a single day tales after which it’ll be Emily Wind to take the reins.

Our high story this morning is that our newest Important ballot reveals extra Australians approve of Anthony Albanese because the nation’s chief than disapprove of him. That’s the primary time he’s been in optimistic territory for the reason that voice referendum 18 months in the past stalled his authorities’s momentum. On a two-party most well-liked foundation, the foremost events are neck-and-neck at 47% every, with 6% undecided. A separate Roy Morgan ballot at this time places Labor forward of the Coalition by 54.5% to 45.5% on a two-party most well-liked foundation.

Jim Chalmers will warn Australians at this time that the nation should give attention to resilience over retaliation because the Trump administration overturns the principles which have ruled the worldwide financial order for the previous 4 many years. Because the OECD downgraded the prospects for world progress this 12 months and subsequent, Chalmers will say that Donald Trump’s tariffs are “self-defeating and self-sabotaging”, however Australia won’t “race to the bottom” in its response.

There’s additionally a report this morning that can shock many Australians as a result of it reveals that swimming requirements are falling. Analysis by Royal Life Saving Australia says practically half of all 12 months 6 college students can’t carry out the fundamental benchmarks of swimming 50m and treading water for 2 minutes – and so they’re not bettering in highschool.