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There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in Guardian Australia’s modelling. The model averages the polls over the time they are in the field and factors in sample sizes, previous results and the “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster.
There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in Guardian Australia’s modelling. The model averages the polls over the time they are in the field and factors in sample sizes, previous results and the “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster.
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Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the best overnight stories and then Krishani Dhanji will be your guide.
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Stock markets in Europe and the US have seen heavy losses after yesterday’s announcement by Donald Trump of tariffs on US trading partners. Anthony Albanese’s government is still considering its response but has unveiled $1bn in loans to help Australian exporters after the tariff hit. We have more coming up.
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The US president’s economic warfare has made him politically toxic with Australian voters. Although the situation is fraught with difficulties for Albanese – will it crash our economy? – there could be political benefits because Peter Dutton has in the past tried to align himself with Trumpist themes such as being “strong” on defence and immigration. Our political writers have their analysis, and in the blog in a minute we’ll look at a new poll showing that Dutton is losing popularity with voters.
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Key occasions
The trade minister, Don Farrell, says the government will use critical minerals as a negotiating tactic with the US – though when Australia tried to negotiate on the resource after the first round of tariffs came into effect, the US wouldn’t accept a deal.
Farrell tells ABC News Breakfast that the government hasn’t given up on negotiating with the US:
Australia is within the backside rung of these nations affected by tariffs …
We haven’t given up and positively the feedback that we have now made to the USA and the feedback which have come again from them is that they’re nonetheless ready to speak with us about this difficulty, and we’ll … proceed to barter with them with a view to eradicating all of these tariffs.
Farrell says Australia already has a crucial minerals take care of Europe and the federal government may have extra to announce on minerals son.
Q: Why did the US administration slapped tariffs on Norfolk Island, Heard Island and the McDonald Islands?
Poor previous penguins, I don’t know what they did to Mr Trump, however, look, I feel it’s a sign, to be trustworthy with you, James, that this was a rushed course of … it’s clearly a mistake.
Younger voters and the gender divide
Voting traits amongst Gen Zers within the western world level to younger males favouring extra rightwing events whereas younger girls are leaning extra to the left.
The divide may have an effect within the federal election the place lots of the youthful era will likely be voting for the primary time.
Benita Kolovos has been chatting with some youthful voters concerning the gender divide – “there’s this sort of us v them kind of mentality” says one – whereas a date-gone-wrong confirmed Grace Richardson (pictured) that the hill was “much steeper” than she thought.
Learn the complete article right here:
Bandt: federal election a ‘battle of the bandaids’
Now we’re onto the toothbrush: Bandt says individuals have been pushing aside going to the dentist as a result of they will’t afford it.
The Greens have mentioned they’d pay to get dental into Medicare by taxing giant firms:
By bringing that into Medicare, it would ship actual financial savings. How can we afford it? Nicely, in the mean time, one in three huge firms on this nation pays no tax in any respect and so we have now launched a costed plan to make these huge firms begin paying their fair proportion of tax.
Bandt says dental is a giant precedence for the minor get together if it will get right into a negotiating place within the occasion of a minority authorities.
However the Greens need extra motion on local weather and Bandt believes neither get together is doing sufficient on housing, healthcare or the surroundings.
You simply have to have a look at the primary week of the marketing campaign, it’s the battle of the bandaids. We’re dealing with these huge crises on this nation – individuals can’t afford to purchase a house, persons are skipping healthcare as a result of they will’t afford it, we bought floods, we bought fires, and as a substitute we’ve simply bought this tinkering across the edges. [We’ve] bought a alternative between the timid and the horrible actually.
Bandt brandishs brush as he urges Australia to ‘detach’ from Trump
If there’s one factor that this marketing campaign has thus far been lacking, it’s large props – however it seems Greens chief Adam Bandt has us coated this morning, with an enormous toothbrush on ABC Information Breakfast (no prizes for what he’ll be speaking about).
However earlier than he will get to dental into Medicare – which is the place I assume he’s going – Bandt is speaking Trump and says Australia needs to be “detaching ourselves” from the US president.
Donald Trump is harmful, a hazard to peace, a hazard to democracy … very clearly these aren’t the act of a good friend, however nonetheless Australia acts as if Donald Trump goes to journey to the rescue … in terms of defence, for instance, I feel this is a chance for Australia to detach itself from Donald Trump, have a way more impartial relationship.
Now we have bought the capability to now forge these new alliances with different nations.
Bandt says Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton have been speaking robust when Australia needs to be resetting its relationship with the US.
He factors to Canada, who he says have reassessed that alliance.
Dan Jervis-Bardy
PM returns to Sydney to finish first week of campaigning
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, will wrap up the primary week of the election marketing campaign along with his first cease in his residence metropolis of Sydney.
The NSW capital is residence to a number of battleground electorates, with Labor bracing for defeat in Bennelong and underneath menace in a number of different seats together with Parramatta, Werriwa and Macarthur.
Senior Labor ministers Tony Burke (Watson) and Jason Clare (Blaxland) are additionally dealing with challenges from impartial candidates hoping to faucet into discontent with the federal government’s method to the Israel-Gaza battle.
Albanese is scheduled to look at a Each day Telegraph-hosted occasion in western Sydney on Friday, the place he’ll reportedly commit to increase the $20,000 instantaneous asset write-off for small companies and tradies for an additional 12 months.
The opposition chief, Peter Dutton, will make a $231m roads funding announcement on the identical occasion, the Each day Telegraph experiences.
Forward of the occasion, Albanese introduced $120m for a brand new birthing service at Rouse Hill Hospital in north-west Sydney. The PM mentioned:
Western Sydney is one among our quickest rising areas, and we’ll ship $120m to ship birthing and maternity providers on the new Rouse Hill hospital – so mums-to-be in Western Sydney may give start nearer to residence.
Good morning
Krishani Dhanji
Krishani Dhanji right here with you: due to Martin Farrer for beginning us off this morning.
It’s Friday! Truthfully it’s been a protracted journey getting thus far (and there’s nonetheless a lot marketing campaign to go).
Donald Trump and his tariffs are nonetheless dominating our headlines in Australia and there’ll be lots extra political response to it at present.
The prime minister and Peter Dutton are each in Sydney at present, and each making bulletins for western Sydney, an space essential for each events.
So buckle up, it’s going to be a giant one!
YouGov ballot says Dutton’s approval lowest since changing into opposition chief
Elias Visontay
Opposition chief Peter Dutton’s recognition with voters has plummeted, a contemporary ballot suggests, along with his approval score at its lowest since taking over the Coalition’s prime job.
In a YouGov ballot offered to Australian Related Press – the primary performed because the federal election was known as – Dutton’s satisfaction score dropped to destructive 15, slumping by 10 factors within the two weeks because the earlier ballot.
Prime minister Anthony Albanese’s score improved barely over the identical interval, growing from destructive 9 to destructive six. The ballot’s outcomes are the primary time since June that Albanese has a better net-satisfaction score than Dutton.
Albanese additionally solidified his lead as most popular prime minister, main 45% to 38%, after a two-point drop in help for Dutton as chief.
On a two-party most popular foundation, Labor holds a slim 51-49 lead over the Coalition.
The YouGov ballot additionally confirmed Labor’s major vote went backwards barely because the election marketing campaign began, dropping one level to 30%, whereas the Coalition’s fell by two factors to 35%. Greens and One Nation have remained at 13% and seven% respectively, whereas independents have loved a slight enhance of two factors to 10%.
Nevertheless, in accordance with the most recent evaluation from Guardian Australia’s ballot tracker – a mannequin developed by political scientists, which follows all the foremost polls – the Coalition nonetheless leads total on major and two-party most popular help.
After 4 consecutive weeks of features for Labor, the mannequin confirmed the get together’s two-party most popular help beginning to stage off.
