Lower than per week after the deposed Syrian president Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, Turkish officers raised their flag over the embassy in Damascus. Whereas lots of the shutters on the palatial villa remained closed, the purple and white crescent flew over the embassy rooftop for the primary time in 12 years.
It was a second preceded days earlier than by the arrival within the Syrian capital of Turkey’s spy chief, Ibrahim Kalin. On this fast aftermath of the top of the Assad regime, Kalin rode in a black sedan pushed by the chief of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmed al-Sharaa, who wore civilian costume as he chauffeured Kalin by means of the crowded streets. The spy chief prayed beneath the hallowed archways of the Umayyad mosque, earlier than rising to shocked crowds gathered to see the primary overseas dignitary to go to the brand new Syrian management.
Dareen Khalifa of the non-profit Worldwide Disaster Group describes Kalin’s go to to the Syrian capital as “a victory lap,” with Ankara rising as a serious beneficiary from the brand new authorities in Damascus. The toppling of Assad has vindicated Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s strategy on Syria at dwelling in Turkey, granted Ankara new alternatives in an influence battle throughout Kurdish areas within the north-east and afforded it recent affect as Syria rebuilds.
“Relations between HTS and Turkey shouldn’t be overestimated, it’s not a proxy relationship, but Turkey was smart to wait until things were settled and then go in full force with Kalin’s visit and other senior people as well,” says Khalifa.
Ankara had for months stalled HTS and delayed the launch of the group’s offensive, analysts mentioned, and as a substitute tried to make use of a gathering with Russian and Iranian officers in early November within the hope of lastly bringing Assad to the negotiating desk. Erdoğan has mentioned that Assad rebuffed his provide to “discuss the future of Syria together”, unknowingly lacking his final likelihood to forestall the sweeping navy offensive that ended his household’s brutal 53-year rule.
Not solely did Assad refuse, however his forces continued to strike the lone rebel-held pocket of Idlib managed by HTS, fuelling the group’s need to launch their offensive. Turkey appealed to Assad’s Russian allies, Khalifa believes, asking Moscow to talk to the Syrian chief and cease the strikes, with little outcome. By the point Sharaa, who was previously recognized by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, approached Ankara later in November, notifying them that his forces had been able to launch an offensive, they relented due to Moscow’s lack of ability to cease Assad.
“Ultimately Turkey said OK, teach them a lesson, but Ankara didn’t realise that HTS would seize Aleppo, let alone the entire country,” Khalifa says. “No one thought it would become something this big. Ankara knew what kind of manoeuvre that HTS might pull, that they would give the impression they were going in one direction, east, when actually they wanted to go south. But it wasn’t more than that.”
By the point the insurgents had massed across the outskirts of Homs, pushing south on the freeway resulting in Damascus two days earlier than Assad fled, Erdoğan publicly threw his help behind what he known as “this march of opposition”. Turkey was monitoring the insurgency intently by means of its community of intelligence channels in addition to public studies, he mentioned, talking outdoors a mosque in Istanbul, including: “May this march in Syria continue without any accidents and troubles.”
Gönül Tol of the Center East Institute thinktank says the triumph of the insurgency nonetheless shocked Turkey, leading to what she phrases “a catastrophic success” from Ankara’s perspective. “This really surprised Ankara, and of course now they are banking on it – it opens up opportunities particularly for Turkish foreign policy and for Erdoğan domestically, but obviously there are also risks,” she says.
The Turkish president has lengthy tried a home balancing act on the problem of Syrian refugees, mediating between a rigorously crafted public picture as a frontrunner of the Islamic world who welcomed displaced Muslims and the wishes of his nationalist coalition companions to expel lots of the 3.2 million Syrians in Turkey.
Assad’s fall, says Tol, has allowed Erdoğan a method to bolster his model because the chief who did essentially the most to guard Syrians whereas hundreds go away, placating his nationalist backers. Turkish officers wasted no time: the overseas minister, Hakan Fidan, mentioned the day after Assad’s ousting that Syrians would return dwelling, and an estimated 7,600 folks had crossed the border by the top of final week.
Fidan’s pledge that Turkish firms would assist to rebuild Syria precipitated shares in building and cement firms to rise the day after Assad was toppled, regardless of their broken repute owing to widespread destruction after the lethal earthquakes that struck southern Turkey and northern Syria early final yr.
Whereas Ankara just lately started a tentative outreach to Kurdish militant teams it has lengthy thought to be terrorist organisations, Tol pointed to the sudden shifts inside Syria which have led to a pivot. Turkish-backed insurgent teams are actually routing US-backed Kurdish forces from cities throughout northern Syria, quickly extending their zone of management.
“While all eyes are on Damascus it’s a free-for-all in the north-east, and Ankara is getting everything it wants,” says Khalifa. “The town of Manbij fell to Turkish-backed forces without making headlines, so they’re pushing in the north-east and getting away with it in ways that would never have happened before.”
Talking throughout a convention on Syria in Jordan over the weekend, Fidan made Ankara’s technique plain. “We support the legitimate representatives of Syrian Kurds in their efforts to advocate for their rights in Damascus,” he mentioned, indicating that Turkey would solely settle for Kurdish illustration within the Syrian capital, however not elsewhere.
Turkish officers displaying up in Damascus, says Tol, can be utilizing their newfound leverage over Syria’s new rulers to make sure that no autonomous Kurdish administration takes maintain within the north-east.
“Post-Assad Syria grants Turkey a lot of leverage and HTS can use all the help it can get,” she says. The group is in search of to keep away from isolation and can use Turkey’s enter to make sure they finally achieve recognition from the worldwide neighborhood, she provides. However within the interim, Turkey stays their gateway to the surface world.
“Turkey will play an important role, helping HTS reconstruct and rebuild, plus Syria needs investment. Turkey will play an important role every step of the way.”
