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With the world holding arsenals of nuclear weapons, the risk of nuclear war is always present.
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Tensions have been rising with Russian threats around the war in Ukraine.
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Here’s what could happen to six US cities if they were hit by a 15-kiloton nuke, according to a simulation.
As Russia has struggled to make progress invading Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has made veiled but pointed threats suggesting he could deploy nuclear weapons.
Experts have told Insider nuclear weapons are still unlikely to be deployed in combat, a move that would put Russia at risk of alienating its allies and its own people. Nor have experts seen evidence of Russia preparing a strike.
Still, though the threat of nuclear war is always present, and world leaders are taking it seriously.
An interactive tool called NukeMap simulates the consequences of a nuclear weapon’s impact.
Using updated Cold War models of nuclear explosions, the tool provides an overview of the simulated scale of the devastation from a nuclear bomb in a given place — including a rough estimate of casualties and injuries.
Here’s what a 15-kiloton blast could look like on six US cities, according to this simulation.
The NukeMap tool lets you detonate a hypothetical nuclear bomb over any major city in the world.
Here’s what the following maps mean:
Yellow: Fireball (590-foot radius) — Less than one-millionth of one second after a bomb exploded, it would emit a giant orange fireball filled with hot air and weapon debris. Any buildings, objects, and people caught within this radius would likely burst into flames.
Green: Radiation (0.74-mile radius) — Within at least 15 minutes of a blast, clouds of dust and sandlike radioactive particles — what’s referred to as nuclear fallout — would reach the ground. Nuclear fallout can cause radiation poisoning, which damages the body’s cells and prove fatal. Wellerstein estimated that between 50% and 90% of people within this radius could die from the acute effects of radiation.
Blue-gray: Air blast (1.04-mile radius) — Air blasts are powerful enough to topple residential buildings. There would likely also be widespread injuries and fatalities within this radius.
Orange: Thermal radiation (1.18-mile radius) — People caught within this radius could experience third-degree burns, severe scarring, or disablement.
The tool, which can be found here, allows you to input the city and the yield of the nuclear weapon you’d like to simulate.
The tool is not meant to be seen as a precise map of what could definitely happen after an impact since nuclear attacks are difficult to model. But it provides “a realistic understanding of what nuclear weapons can and can’t do,” Nuclear-weapons historian Alex Wellerstein, who created the tool, previously told Insider.
It comes with some important limitations. For instance, it doesn’t take into account weather conditions, which can affect the altitude of a mushroom cloud and the fallout.
It uses data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (which is sponsored by the US Department of Energy) that shows how many people are likely to inhabit an area within a 24-hour period.
In the event of a 15-kiloton blast, 63,000 people in San Francisco could die — but that’s the smallest number of any city on this list.
The city could also see about 172,00 injuries — more than Houston, LA, or Washington, DC.
If a fireball were to hit the city’s Mission District, the Golden Gate Bridge would remain standing.
That blast would also miss two of the city’s iconic waterside landmarks: the Ferry Building and Fisherman’s Wharf.
Nuclear arsenals have evolved since Hiroshima
Nuclear weapons have a demonstrated devastating effect on life, health, and the environment.
The 15-kiloton bomb dropped by the US on Hiroshima in 1945 showed that. That attack immediately killed an estimated 80,000 people. Tens of thousands were exposed to lethal levels of radiation exposure.
The bomb the US dropped on Nagasaki had an explosive yield of 21 kilotons — it killed roughly 74,000 people.
The world’s nuclear arsenal is not as big as it was in the 80s. But nuclear warheads have gotten more sophisticated — and more powerful.
Russia is estimated to have about 5,997 warheads, per the Federation of American Scientists.
Of those, 1,912 are tactical nuclear weapons. These weapons tend to have yields that range from 10 kilotons — about the power of the Hiroshima bomb — to 100 kilotons, per Insider’s previous reporting.
The risk of nuclear war is heightened, but still low
In spite of the world’s expansive nuclear arsenal — nine countries hold about 12,700 warheads, per the Federation of American Scientists — nuclear weapons have been only been used in warfare twice since they were invented, both times by the US.
The risk of a nuclear war is escalated with the tension around Ukraine. But it remains low, experts previously told Insider.
“There is a consensus among people who’ve been looking at all this that the battlefield use of nuclear weapons is very much out of the question,” Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, previously said.
If Houston were attacked, 90,000 people could die.
About 65,000 Houston residents could also be injured from a Hiroshima-like blast — the smallest total of injuries on this list.
The Johnson Space Center and Space Center Houston would both be safe from damage if the bomb were detonated near the city’s downtown.
The Houston Zoo would likely escape air blasts as well.
In Los Angeles, 78,000 people would be killed.
About 140,000 people would be injured.
In the simulation below, Beverly Hills and neighborhoods like West Hollywood would be relatively safe in this simulation.
This is because Los Angeles is a sprawling city.
A 15-kiloton explosion could cause 120,000 deaths in Washington, DC.
Nearly 169,000 people would be injured.
The Pentagon and Ronald Reagan Airport might escape thermal radiation if a bomb were detonated over the National Mall.
The air blast could be strong enough to damage the White House and Washington Monument, according to Wellerstein’s simulation.
In Chicago, a 15kt nuclear bomb could kill 151,000 people — almost as many as Houston’s and San Francisco’s death counts combined.
About 209,000 residents would be injured.
People at the University of Chicago and Willis Tower would be exposed to severe doses of radiation under this simulation, according to an explosion simulation above the South Loop neighborhood.
Those visiting the Cloud Gate sculpture (better known as “The Bean”) could experience third-degree burns.
A nuclear bomb dropped on New York City could kill 264,000 people — the most of any city on this list.
The city’s total injury count would also be harrowing: About 512,000 people would be hurt.
If the blast were to strike lower Manhattan, most of Brooklyn and Queens would be safe, but some windows there might still shatter.
If the fireball were centered near SoHo, as shown above, Chinatown and the area around Washington Square Park would be exposed to radiation. Parts of the Financial District would also see thermal radiation.
This article was first published in December 23, 2019, and has been updated to reflect recent developments. Aria Bendix contributed to the earlier version of the story.
Read the original article on Business Insider
