Vladimir Putin’s use of Russian energy to blackmail Europe comes as no surprise. Last week, he cut off natural gas to Bulgaria and Poland, two NATO nations aligned with the rest of Europe in standing against the invasion of Ukraine. In the face of stiff sanctions from the West, Putin always had the energy card to play against Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian energy, particularly natural gas. It was only a matter of time before he played it.
The move was in effect a warning shot to the rest of Europe — stop rearming Ukrainian military forces, or find another way to power up your factories. It also was an attempt to fragment the unity that the U.S. and NATO allies have crafted since the invasion began in late February. Putin’s likely calculus: How long can Western unity last if natural gas-deprived Europeans start shivering in their homes next winter?
But like much of Putin’s game-planning in Ukraine so far, the energy gambit is likely to backfire.
In the short term, Europe will feel some hurt. More than 45% of Poland’s natural gas comes from Russia. Bulgaria gets roughly 90% of its natural gas from Russia’s state-run energy behemoth, Gazprom. Those countries will scramble to find alternate sources, though Poland has been bracing for a Russian cutoff and has ample supplies of natural gas in storage.
But it’s also vital that Western leaders look at Putin’s provocations through the prism of long-term ramifications. And in the long term, the West may have the upper hand.
Revenue from oil and natural gas exports is the lifeblood of the Russian economy — and Putin’s government. The Kremlin’s storehouse of rubles is large enough now to keep the war effort in Ukraine going. But if the European Union followed through with its oft-stated goal to eventually wean itself off completely from Russian energy, Putin’s aggressive capabilities would be dramatically weakened.
The trick is, how can Europe uncouple itself from dependence on Russia, and how soon?
For a template, the EU should look to Poland. For years, Warsaw has been wary of its reliance on Moscow for energy. So in 2011 it began construction on a liquefied natural gas terminal on Poland’s Baltic Sea coast, and now that terminal imports LNG from suppliers in the U.S. and Qatar. Later this year, Poland plans to begin receiving natural gas from Norway via a new pipeline under the Baltic Sea. Building new pipelines and LNG terminals carry daunting price tags, but Europe has witnessed what price is paid by relying on a Putin-led Russia for its energy needs.
There are other alternate sources Europe can pursue, from new nuclear power plants and renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and geothermal power to stepping up production of biomethane made from agricultural waste. No single source will replace the large amounts of Russian natural gas that Europe imports, but a strategy that combines an array of alternatives gives the EU its best opportunity to break away from its self-defeating over-reliance on Russian energy.
It seems the will is there. A day after Moscow announced the shutdown of gas to Poland and Bulgaria, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that “the era of Russian fossil fuels in Europe is coming to an end.” The question is when.
Western sanctions imposed on Russia have had a strong impact on the Russian economy, but they haven’t curtailed Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. Those sanctions have the broader goal of ensuring that, after the Ukraine war is over, Russia under Putin would remain demonstrably diminished. “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III said last week.
That’s the right mindset, but without cutting the cord on Russian energy, it’s not likely. EU leaders have said their hope is to shut the valve off to Russian energy completely by 2030. Putin has made it clear he’s far too much of a threat to the world for the West to adhere to that timetable. Based on the bloodshed and ruin that the Russian leader has inflicted on Ukraine, the deadline must be moved up as soon as possible.
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