I don’t work for the U.S. government or Jane’s or some think-tank in Washington, but even sitting in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, it is pretty evident Vladimir Putin has made a massive miscalculation on many levels.
First, and most apparent, he believed he would waltz into Ukraine with a powerful army and sweep away any resistance before the West could react. Wrong. The Ukraine resistance is already the stuff of legend, a David-and-Goliath kind of tale.
Second, Putin obviously believed the West either would not care or would behave in a spineless manner and more or less roll over for him. Wrong again. Western leaders are galvanizing against him, first with sanctions that are already having a crippling effect on the Russian economy, then with increasing military aid to Ukraine.
Another aspect of this are the volunteers from around the world, many of them veterans, who see a righteous cause worth fighting for, who are converging on Ukraine to join the battle against the Russians. This includes a growing number of American veterans who can see a clearly defined enemy who is equally clearly in the wrong.
Third, Putin seems to have completely overlooked reaction within his own nation. Protests against the government, which are against the law in Russia, are taking place all across that country with massive turnouts. The oligarchs are getting restless, yet another bad sign for Putin.
One of my daughters has been fascinated with Russia and Ukraine, particularly the whole Chernobyl thing, but also with the oligarchs, since she was a very young teen. She tells me that one of the oligarchs, the owner of the Chelsea Football Club in England, is selling the team and donating the proceeds to Ukraine. This oligarch owner and Putin have been close. This is a very bad sign for Putin.
Ordinary Russian citizens who already had passports and visas are flocking to Finland in an effort to get out of Russia. These are not the uber-rich. These are normal folks who are horrified by what their government is doing. Yet another bad sign for Putin’s government.
Putin has his rear end in a crack and the crack is closing. He is pushing through a law that will bring heavy punishment for what he calls “fake news.” By Putin’s definition, and by some who have cried “fake news” in our country, this means any news he disagrees with.
You can always tell the bad men in government. They want to either control the media or shut it down entirely. One of the fundamental cornerstones of a free society is a free and unfettered news media.
The thing is, a politician who is doing nothing wrong doesn’t have to worry about what the news media reports. It is only those who have something to hide or cover up who are always crying “fake news.” This is an old, well-worn strategy. It dates back for as long as there has been a printed media available to the general public and it is always a sign the guy screaming “fake news” is the very one who is the most likely to be doing the lying and the coverups.
Putin is in trouble. And you can bet the Pentagon has our cyber warriors lighting him up on Russian social media networks. I wonder how he likes being on the receiving end of that particular stick. After he meddled in two U.S. presidential elections, it must feel a bit uncomfortable to be getting some payback. Don’t expect me to cry for him.
A recent headline in the Washington Post says Putin is asking for a return to normal relations with the West. No need for sanctions. I bet. When your only friend is communist China, you might be wishing for a little normalization.
Putin spent a couple of decades building financial relationships with the European Union and the United States. He just threw all that away in less than a week. I’m guessing that wasn’t part of his calculations either.
Here is the problem. Putin, even if he quit fighting today, which is unlikely because it would cause him to lose face, would not want to pull out of Ukraine. The West cannot lift the sanctions until he pulls out, otherwise we will be condoning and legitimizing his invasion.
So we sit here looking across a gaping chasm that Putin created through a horrible miscalculation, waiting to see who blinks first. If there is wisdom in the Western powers, and I certainly hope there is, someone must open a door for Putin to back down and save some face or we will be looking at a situation none of us wants to contemplate.
There is plenty of military power in Western Europe to give the diplomats what they need to negotiate an end to this mess. Let us hope a man or woman of wisdom steps forward who can bring peace.
Gary Cosby Jr. is photo editor of The Tuscaloosa News. Readers can email him at gary.cosby@tuscaloosanews.com.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Vladimir Putin’s massive miscalculation in Ukraine | GARY COSBY JR.
