Data: Mapbox/OSCE as of Feb. 14, 2022; Map: Will Chase/Axios
Russian President Vladimir Putin has told his German and French counterparts that he intends to soon sign a decree recognizing two breakaway “republics” in eastern Ukraine as independent, the Kremlin announced on Monday. Putin is expected to give a televised address imminently.
Why it matters: The separatists don’t hold all of the territory they claim and have asked for Russian military assistance. Recognition could thus be a de facto declaration of war from Putin.
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The separatists declared independence in 2014 and have waged a low-scale war against Ukrainian forces since then, with military backing from Moscow.
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The fighting has escalated since Thursday, with Kyiv accusing the separatists of persistent shelling across the line of contact.
Between the lines: Analysts expect Russian recognition of the separatist republics to be followed by a deployment of “peacekeeper” forces, but it’s unclear whether they would seek to secure the territory the separatists currently hold or the entirety of the areas they claim (see map).
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At a time when the White House continues to warn of an imminent, large-scale invasion, Putin’s latest moves could be interpreted as a sign that his immediate military focus is on the eastern Donbas region and not on the capital, Kyiv.
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But Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia’s military capabilities at CNA, contends it’s more likely the first step in a broader military operation that won’t be limited to the Donbas.
It’s also unclear whether Putin’s move will immediately trigger the “massive” sanctions the U.S. and its European allies have promised in the event of an invasion.
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Recognizing the two breakaway regions “would be a sort of attack without weapons,” France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told a parliamentary hearing earlier Monday.
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Secretary of State Tony Blinken had said such recognition would also “call into further question Russia’s stated commitment to continue to engage in diplomacy to achieve a peaceful resolution of this crisis, and necessitate a swift and firm response from the United States in full coordination with our Allies and partners.”
State of play: Russia’s state Duma voted last week to ask Putin to recognize the “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk as independent. The separatist leaders echoed that request on Monday, before Russia’s most senior officials took turns making the case for recognition in an extraordinary televised Security Council meeting.
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As it concluded, Putin asked if there were any objections. Hearing none, he said a decision would be made “today.”
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The Kremlin claims Ukraine is preparing for a major military offensive in the east, which U.S. and Ukrainian officials have dismissed as absurd. More than 150,000 Russian troops are massed on the borders.
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Moscow has granted Russian passports to many residents of the separatist republics, and former president Dmitry Medvedev argued during the cabinet meeting that Russia had a duty to defend its citizens.
Zoom out: Russia claimed earlier Monday that its forces had killed five Ukrainians with anti-tank weapons after their vehicles crossed into Russian territory, which Ukraine denied. The head of Russia’s FSB intelligence service later claimed one Ukrainian soldier had been captured.
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Russian state media claimed the Ukrainians that were killed had been on a “sabotage” mission, and also reported that Ukrainian shells had destroyed a border post on Russian soil.
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Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba denied both allegations and called on Russia to “stop your fake-producing factory now.”
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The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine tweeted: “Russia’s execution of transparent, hackneyed plots to justify an invasion would be laughable if they weren’t so destructive and dangerous.”
Zoom in: During Monday’s cabinet meeting, Putin cut off foreign intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin when he said (apparently mistakenly) that Russia should annex the republics, rather than recognizing them as independent.
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Recognition amounts to a withdrawal from the Minsk Accords, which were mediated by Germany and France in 2014 and 2014 in an attempt to end the war. Putin claims the Ukrainian government has no intention of implementing those agreements, which call for a “special status” for Donetsk and Luhansk.
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Kuleba, meanwhile, requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting on Monday to “discuss urgent actions aimed at de-escalation, as well as practical steps to guarantee the security of Ukraine.”
Worth noting: The justifications Russia appears to be building for war closely track with the playbook the Biden administration predicted Putin would follow.
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They also appear to be choreographed in advance. Independent Russian network TV Rain noted that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s watch showed a time five hours earlier than the purportedly “live” Security Council meeting was aired.
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Previously, separatist leaders had released videos announcing an emergency civilian evacuation which turned out to have been recorded two days before they were released.
Go deeper: Biden and Putin fight to control of Ukraine narrative
Editor’s note: This story has been updated with additional details from the Kremlin.
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