Friedrich Merz’s authorities has despatched a transparent message to anybody excited about coming to reside in Germany: don’t. But its message to those that wish to come to Germany to work is: we want you.
This would possibly sound like a contradiction, however it’s a revival of the considering that drove the “guest worker” programme of the postwar growth years. Between 1955 and 1973, West Germany sought to rebuild its financial system by attracting labour, primarily from Turkey but additionally from Italy, Portugal and Yugoslavia. But it did so with out giving a lot consideration to the human wants of the individuals coming.
Repeating that experiment, and the social tensions it created, at this second could be even worse.
The Wirtschaftswunder (financial miracle) fuelled document development and labour shortages. Now, Germany’s financial system is in recession, nevertheless it desperately wants individuals to fulfil fundamental public providers. Above all, it wants them to assist finance its mounting pensions invoice.
On condition that Germany has additionally grow to be floor zero for Europe’s heightened sensitivity round immigration after the backlash that adopted Angela Merkel’s open-door coverage in the direction of Syrian refugees a decade in the past, it’s value listening to how Berlin navigates the difficulty. To this point, Merz is offering a masterclass in what to not do.
On the one hand, the conservative chancellor is fuelling rightwing narratives that recommend migration is a menace to the nation. On the opposite, he speaks because the voice of German enterprise and pleads for extra international staff.
“We need skilled immigrants as drivers of progress,” Merz mentioned this month, at a ceremony to honour the contributions of Özlem Türeci and Uğur Şahin – the Turkish immigrants behind Covid vaccine pioneer BioNTech. He added that anti-immigration “ideologies” had been a menace not simply to Germany’s prosperity “but even worse, their narrow-mindedness threatens the future of our liberal order”.
However his authorities has despatched precisely the sort of sign he claims to decry. Germany has continued with a brand new coverage of rejecting asylum seekers at its borders, regardless of a courtroom order calling it illegal and a violation of EU legislation. The border rejections standoff comes regardless of a dramatic decline in refugees – as much as April 2025, the figures had been down by practically half from the earlier yr.
One other leg of Merz’s anti-migration technique is to place an finish to “turbo naturalisation”, which permits newcomers the chance to use for a German passport after as little as three years in choose circumstances. The official justification is that ending fast-track citizenship will remove a “pull factor” and cut back unlawful migration.
However acquiring citizenship and skirting migration guidelines don’t have anything to do with each other. Crossing the border as an irregular migrant might be an act of desperation, and at instances opportunism. Getting a German passport requires authorized residency on the very least, but additionally includes numerous hurdles and a big quantity of paperwork.
The fast-track process is much more discretionary and reserved for those that exhibit “exceptional integration efforts”, equivalent to talking German at a sophisticated stage, persistently paying taxes and collaborating in the neighborhood, for instance by volunteering at native charities or sports activities golf equipment.
Eliminating that route, which solely opened in June 2024, may have little or no affect. Final yr – when a rush to make the most of the brand new course of may need been anticipated – solely about 7% of individuals receiving German citizenship had an accelerated utility, based on federal statistics company Destatis.
However Merz’s strikes reinforce the narrative that Germany is being overwhelmed by newcomers. The strategy bolsters the far-right AfD – a detailed second within the polls – which has known as for the deportation of hundreds of individuals, together with some with migrant backgrounds who maintain German citizenship.
Controlling entry is reliable, however such grandstanding insurance policies gasoline xenophobic sentiment and don’t allay the troubles of anxious residents. Additionally, the political dividends are restricted.
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Whereas the fevered dialogue round migration has stored it as the highest concern for Germans, solely 38% of individuals ranked it as one among their three essential considerations, which is 4 share factors decrease than in April, based on an Ipsos survey. Financial considerations equivalent to inflation and poverty/inequality are the opposite high considerations.
The harder-to-face actuality is that Germany might use all the assistance it will possibly get. With older Germans heading into retirement by the thousands and thousands over the approaching decade, the nation should welcome a web 400,000 newcomers every year to maintain issues balanced and shoulder the rising price of pensions.
However this isn’t the postwar period, the place Germany can signal agreements with poorer nations and anticipate hundreds to reach. There’s world competitors for certified staff, and Germany is at an obstacle due to its language and its fame for being unwelcoming.
That’s a legacy from the mismanaged Gastarbeiter (visitor employee) programme, when Germany had neither a plan for methods to combine the individuals it lured for work, nor the will to take action. It additionally displays a nationwide id left slender and underdeveloped because of its Nazi previous.
The previous footballer Mesut Özil, born in 1988 to a Turkish guest-worker household in Germany’s Ruhr Valley, by no means felt absolutely accepted. Although he performed a starring function in Germany’s 2014 World Cup win, he mentioned: “When we win, I’m German; when we lose, I’m a foreigner.”
His story reveals how acceptance is out of attain for a lot of. And it’s not remoted. In accordance to a current research by the Friedrich Ebert Basis, between 2015 and 2022, 12 million individuals migrated to Germany. The research additionally mentioned that, in the identical interval, greater than 7 million migrants left once more. The primary causes had been difficulties feeling a part of German society.
The following blow might be looming. Based on a research by Germany’s Institute for Employment Analysis, 1 / 4 of migrants within the nation – round 2.6 million individuals – are contemplating packing up and leaving.
Germany’s self-imposed isolation will result in a sluggish erosion of the labour pressure until it’s urgently addressed. Revising the narrative round migration to recast it as a part of the answer could be a great start line.
However the political class hardly appears prepared. As Markus Söder, the conservative premier of Bavaria, just lately instructed the rightwing media outlet NiUS: “Of course we need immigration– unfortunately.”
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Chris Reiter and Will Wilkes are the co-authors of Damaged Republik: The Inside Story of Germany’s Descent Into Disaster. Each cowl Germany from Berlin and Frankfurt, respectively, for Bloomberg Information
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