Far-right leaders in Europe have welcomed the victory of the nationalist opposition candidate, Karol Nawrocki, in Poland’s presidential elections, a consequence that offers an enormous blow to the centre-right prime minister Donald Tusk’s reform and pro-EU agenda.
Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former novice boxer, gained Sunday’s election with 50.89% of the vote, last figures confirmed on Monday, forward of his rival, Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal Warsaw mayor and an ally of Tusk, who secured 49.11%.
“Congratulations to President @NawrockiKn on his fantastic victory,” Hungary’s intolerant prime minister, Viktor Orbán, posted on social media, including that he was “looking forward to working” with the 42-year-old, who has by no means held elected workplace.
France’s far-right Nationwide Rally chief, Marine Le Pen, mentioned Nawrocki’s win was “good news” and marked a “disavowal of the Brussels oligarchy” attempting to impose its “authoritarian policies and federalist ambitions … in defiance of the democratic will”.
Nawrocki was backed by the right-populist Regulation and Justice (PiS) occasion, which dominated Poland till Tusk’s parliamentary election victory in late 2023.
Whereas the presidential function is essentially ceremonial, it has some affect over overseas and defence coverage, in addition to the important energy to veto new legal guidelines. This could solely be overturned with a 60% majority in parliament, which Tusk’s coalition doesn’t have.
Nawrocki’s veto means will probably be laborious for the prime minister to cross massive adjustments earlier than the following elections in 2027.
Nawrocki’s win was a reversal of early exit polls, which instructed that Trzaskowski would edge the competition by lower than a proportion level. Each candidates subsequently claimed victory, with Nawrocki’s win formally confirmed at about 8am on Monday.
Trzaskowski later conceded, congratulating Nawrocki on a victory “that comes with great responsibility, especially in such challenging times”. He thanked his supporters for voting for a “strong, safe, honest and empathetic” Poland.
Throughout a bitterly fought and sometimes bad-tempered marketing campaign in current weeks, the 2 males supplied very totally different visions of Poland, and the consequence may have monumental implications for the nation’s political future and for its function in Europe.
Trzaskowski, a pro-EU progressive, backed abortion legislation liberalisation and civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ {couples}. Nawrocki, who espouses conservative Catholic values, would in all probability veto any authorities try to implement such strikes.
He’s fiercely important of the EU and more likely to ally himself wherever he can with different nationalist, Eurosceptic leaders corresponding to Orbán, fuelling divisions inside the bloc at a time when it faces main challenges, together with US tariffs and the struggle in Ukraine.
Nawrocki replaces the outgoing president and PiS ally, Andrzej Duda. Tusk’s time as prime minister has been marked by difficulties bringing his broad coalition into line, a scenario made tougher by having an ideologically opposed president in workplace.
Nawrocki’s win will in all probability delay impasse, turning’s Tusk’s authorities into “a lame-duck administration for the next couple of years”, mentioned Prof Aleks Szczerbiak, an professional on east and central European politics on the College of Sussex.
“And it will be worse than with Duda, as Nawrocki will come in with a new mandate from what effectively turned into a referendum on the government,” he added It would additionally enhance PiS, which clashed closely with Brussels over the rule of legislation when in energy.
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A senior PiS lawmaker, Przemysław Czarnek, instructed his occasion might quickly begin attempting to select off members of Tusk’s broad and already fractured coalition, with the eventual intention of making a brand new rightwing majority in parliament.
“I can reassure you that maybe not starting tomorrow, but from Tuesday, we will begin very energetic work in order to give the Polish people another gift – the end of Tusk’s government,” Czarnek mentioned.
Borys Budka, an MEP from Tusk’s Civic Platform, mentioned he believed PiS would now search to “overthrow the legal government”. He mentioned this is able to be “a big challenge for the government, which will be blocked when it comes to good initiatives”.
Nawrocki has headed the Institute of Nationwide Remembrance, a state analysis physique typically accused of pushing a politicised model of historical past, since 2021.
Trzaskowski, the Oxford-educated mayor of Warsaw since 2018, beforehand held ministerial posts and served within the European parliament. He sought to mission himself as a protected pair of arms to work with the federal government on progressive reforms.
Nawrocki’s marketing campaign was overtly backed by the US president Donald Trump’s Maga motion and his victory means “Trump will have more to say in Polish politics”, mentioned Krzysztof Izdebski, the coverage director on the Stefan Batory Basis thinktank.
EU leaders put a courageous face on the consequence, which got here two weeks after Romania’s presidential election was gained by the centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicuşor Dan, in a setback for the continent’s nationalist forces.
The European Fee president, Ursula von der Leyen, mentioned on Monday she was satisfied the EU might proceed its “very good cooperation” with Poland, whereas Germany’s president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, despatched “warm congratulations”.
Steinmeier supplied shut cooperation “on the foundation of democracy and the rule of law”, so as “to ensure a future for Europe in security, freedom and prosperity”, including: “A strong Europe needs good German-Polish cooperation.”
However the result’s more likely to weaken Poland’s newfound place on the coronary heart of EU mainstream choice making and will enhance the Czech Republic’s Eurosceptic opposition chief, Andrej Babiš, earlier than elections in October.
