Key occasions
The best way to learn exit ballot
Jakub Krupa
For all of the comprehensible deal with the exit ballot at 9pm (8pm BST), let’s face one factor: sure, it is going to give us a sign on the place the pollsters suppose we’re, however don’t be stunned if their prime line is effectively throughout the margin of error.
On Friday, Ipsos Poland – which runs the primary exit ballot for 3 broadcasters, TVP, TVP and Polsat – warned that the exit ballot has +/- 2% error for every candidate, with the later late exit ballot – anticipated two hours later – narrowing it all the way down to +/- 1%.
Given how shut this race has been, it’s not inconceivable that the distinction between the 2 candidates will nonetheless be inside that margin, and which means we should wait a bit longer.
Ipsos themselves stated that, after all, they had been effectively ready for the problem forward, however would nonetheless want a bit extra luck than ordinary.
There’s additionally a second exit ballot, by OGB for Republika (identical caveats and guidelines on margins of error apply). They had been fairly shut within the first spherical, so I’ll deliver you each units of figures.
For context, right here is our ballot tracker all of the polls carried out and printed earlier than the nation went into electoral silence on Friday evening.
Jakub Krupa
60 minutes to go.
Each candidates solid their votes earlier at present, surrounded by their closest relations.
And each of them voted in Warsaw, the place they may also host their outcomes events tonight.
Poland chooses its subsequent president
Jakub Krupa
Good night, or dobry wieczór, from Warsaw, Poland.
We’re lower than 90 minutes away from the polls closing in what’s the anticipated to be the closest Polish presidential election after the autumn of communism in 1989.
The race pits the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by Donald Tusk’s politically-diverse governing coalition, towards the historian and former newbie boxer Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by the populist-right Regulation and Justice (PiS) celebration that ruled the nation between 2015 and 2023.
Reporting from Warsaw, I’ll deliver you all the important thing updates all through the night as we hope to search out out who would be the subsequent president of Poland.
Why does it matter, I hear you ask? Properly, it’s Europe’s sixth largest economic system, the best GDP spender on defence inside Nato, and a (to date) supportive ally of Ukraine. That’s to begin with.
You’ll be able to learn our primer on what it means for Poland’s home politics and the place of the present authorities, led by former European Council president Donald Tusk, right here.
In the event you fancy a broader take a look at Poland’s place in Europe and what tonight’s outcome might imply for that, right here’s a broader evaluation on that challenge.
In the event you don’t need to learn the complete factor simply but, don’t fear – I’ll deliver you some key bullet factors right here.
The polls shut 9pm native (8pm BST), and we’ll get exit polls numbers right away.
It’s Sunday, 1 June 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa right here.
Let’s go. Zaczynamy.
