The economic system of Poland has accomplished very nicely within the final couple of a long time, particularly compared to different international locations of japanese Europe that escaped from Soviet political and financial management again within the Nineteen Nineties. The IMF does semi-regular evaluations of nationwide economies in what are known as “Article IV” report. Listed below are some insights from the IMF on Poland’s economic system (Republic of Poland — 2024 Arcticle IV Session, January 2025).
Poland has achieved substantial financial convergence inside the EU. The economic system has roughly doubled in dimension during the last 20 years. Actual GDP per capita over the identical interval has elevated from just below 50 % of the EU27 common to 80 %. Progress has been among the many quickest traditionally for an economic system of its revenue degree and dimension, now the twentieth largest on the earth in actual phrases. Social indicators have additionally improved markedly with robust training outcomes and declining poverty charges. Furthermore, revenue inequality in Poland is among the many lowest within the OECD.
One difficulty for international locations like Poland is the dreaded “middle-income trap,” the place an economic system goes by a sample of productiveness progress and corresponding structural change for a time, however then its speedy progress ranges off. Nonetheless, Poland appears to be continuing alongside the trail of South Korea, a nation which has suffered much less from the middle-income entice than many others.
The horizontal axis on the determine measures from the date by which a nationwide economic system reached a per capita GDP of $25,000. As you’ll be able to appear, Korea (blue dashed line) stored rising strongly and Poland (crimson stable line) has accomplished the identical, whereas international locations like Spain and Hungary have seen their progress charges drop off. You need to get used to considering of Poland’s progress expertise as much like that of Korea.
Whereas Poland’s economic system has grown, its charges of poverty have fallen (not particularly stunning) and in addition its charges of inequality (considerably stunning). Whereas better financial progress and better inequality do generally go collectively, the connection between the 2 is closely formed by political choices.
There at the moment are predictions that subsequent yr, per capita GDP in Poland will surpass that of Japan. So together with considering of Poland’s progress expertise as much like that of Korea, you should get used to considering of the typical way of life in Poland as much like that of Japan.
One reservation about these comparisons is price noting. To check GDP between international locations that use totally different currencies, one has to decide on an alternate charge. There are mainly two decisions right here: a market alternate charge, which can then fluctuate with the generally unstable world alternate charge markets, or an alternate charge that’s calculated based mostly on the shopping for energy of a foreign money as measured in internationally tradeable items. This second method is named a “purchasing power parity” alternate charge, which is calculated by a analysis group on the World Financial institution. (For an outline of their most up-to-date report, see right here.)
The selection between market alternate charges and PPP alternate charges could make a giant distinction in worldwide comparisons. For instance, if one compares the GDP of the US and China utilizing market alternate charges, the US GDP is about 50% greater than China. However in the event you do the identical comparability utilizing PPP alternate charges, then China’s economic system is about 25% bigger than the US.
Usually, the PPP alternate charge takes into impact the truth that many items and companies are significantly cheaper in lower-income international locations. Thus, the shopping for energy of currencies inside that nation is bigger. A rule-of-thumb is that when evaluating common way of life between international locations, per capita GDP transformed on the PPP alternate charge is smart. However when taking a look at world financial clout, the market alternate charge stays extremely related.
Getting again to Poland, no nation has a assure of future financial success, and the IMF report discusses quite a few potential bumps for Poland within the financial highway forward. Nevertheless it’s price noting that again within the Nineteen Nineties, when international locations throughout japanese Europe have been popping out from below Soviet management, Poland was often known as a rustic that adopted a disruptive “shock therapy” method to its financial transition to a market-oriented economic system, versus different international locations that sought to observe a extra staged and nuanced step-by-step method. For Poland, the embrace of market economics has paid off.
