Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in a combative, hourlong address on Monday that he will recognize two breakaway “republics” in eastern Ukraine as independent.
The big picture: Western leaders swiftly denounced Putin’s move as a violation of international law. The separatists don’t hold all of the territory they claim and have asked for Russian military assistance. Recognition could thus be a de facto declaration of war from Putin.
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The separatists declared independence in 2014 and have waged a low-scale war against Ukrainian forces since then, with military backing from Moscow.
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The fighting has escalated since Thursday, with Kyiv accusing the separatists of persistent shelling across the line of contact.
White House press secretary Jen Paski said in a statement that “President Biden will soon issue an Executive Order that will prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine.”
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“We will also soon announce additional measures related to today’s blatant violation of Russia’s international commitments,” Paski added.
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel said in a statement that “[t]his step is a blatant violation of international law as well as of the Minsk agreements. The Union will react with sanctions against those involved in this illegal act.”
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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called Putin’s move “a very ill omen, a very dark sign. … It’s certainly yet another indication that things are moving in the wrong direction in Ukraine.”
Between the lines: Analysts expect Russian recognition of the separatist republics to be followed by a deployment of “peacekeeper” forces, but it’s unclear whether they would seek to secure the territory the separatists currently hold or the entirety of the areas they claim (see map).
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At a time when the White House continues to warn of an imminent, large-scale invasion, Putin’s latest moves could be interpreted as a sign that his immediate military focus is on the eastern Donbas region and not on the capital, Kyiv.
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But Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia’s military capabilities at CNA, contends it’s more likely the first step in a broader military operation that won’t be limited to the Donbas.
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Putin said Ukrainian forces in Donbas must stand down or they will “be responsible for any future bloodletting.”
Data: Mapbox/OSCE as of Feb. 14, 2022; Map: Will Chase/Axios
What he’s saying: Putin began his address Monday with a lengthy rendition of Ukraine’s history as he sees it. He claimed Ukraine was an “inherent part” of Russia’s culture and history that was only “invented” as a separate entity by Russian Bolsheviks and has never become a functional independent state.
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He proceeded to argue that a hostile Ukraine is a threat to Russia because it is being armed by the West and could eventually obtain nuclear weapons (there are no indications that such a scenario is likely).
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Putin blamed the West, in particular the U.S., for the current state of affairs. He said it’s become clear the U.S. wants Russia as an enemy and wants it to be weak.
State of play: Russia’s state Duma voted last week to ask Putin to recognize the “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk as independent. The separatist leaders echoed that request earlier on Monday, before Russia’s most senior officials took turns making the case for recognition in an extraordinary televised Security Council meeting.
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The Kremlin claims Ukraine is preparing for a major military offensive in the east, which U.S. and Ukrainian officials have dismissed as absurd. More than 150,000 Russian troops are massed on the borders.
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Moscow has granted Russian passports to many residents of the separatist republics, and former president Dmitry Medvedev argued during the cabinet meeting that Russia had a duty to defend its citizens.
Zoom out: Russia claimed earlier Monday that its forces had killed five Ukrainians with anti-tank weapons after their vehicles crossed into Russian territory, which Ukraine denied. The head of Russia’s FSB intelligence service later claimed one Ukrainian soldier had been captured.
Worth noting: The justifications Russia appears to be building for war closely track with the playbook the Biden administration predicted Putin would follow.
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They also appear to be choreographed in advance. Independent Russian network TV Rain noted that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s watch showed a time five hours earlier than the purportedly “live” Security Council meeting was aired.
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Previously, separatist leaders had released videos announcing an emergency civilian evacuation which turned out to have been recorded two days before they were released.
Go deeper: Biden and Putin fight to control of Ukraine narrative
Editor’s note: This story has been updated with additional details from Putin’s televised address and Western leaders’ reactions.
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