Oscars Predictions: Supporting Actor – Will Star Power Help Contenders Like Brad Pitt and Tom Hanks With Academy Voters?

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks - ElvisTom Hanks - Elvis

Tom Hanks as Colonel Tom Parker

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: There’s star power in the supporting actor mix.

“Babylon” has equal amounts of passion and dread among those who’ve experienced the 188-minute classic Hollywood epic. This is proven by its “rotten” tomato score (as of 12/23, it’s 56%), but it still managed to land 11 Critics Choice nods. Oscar winner Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood”) was able to pick up a Globe nod and could translate similarly to Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush from the divisive “Vice” (2018), whose performance (and film) landed multiple nods despite mixed reviews.

And then there’s Tom Hanks, who could ride in with his co-star Austin Butler in the Baz Luhrmann biopic “Elvis.” He’ll also have his grouchy but lovable “A Man Called Otto” (contending in lead actor) to help keep the focus on him. A surprise and possible double-acting nominee?

WOMEN TALKING, from left: Ben Whishaw, Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett CollectionWOMEN TALKING, from left: Ben Whishaw, Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection

WOMEN TALKING, from left: Ben Whishaw, Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection

Ben Whishaw has been highly respected among his peers, with standouts on television such as his Emmy-winning turn in the limited series “A Very English Scandal” in 2019. So, will his awards chances increase as audiences and industry voters see his remarkable work in “Women Talking,” which opens in theaters this holiday weekend?

Similar to Rachel McAdams who was the sole female voice in a predominately male cast in “Spotlight” (2015), for which she earned a supporting actress nod, Whishaw is the most prominent male actor in a sprawling ensemble who is might have trouble getting any of them recognized due to vote-splitting. So far this season, he’s picked up mentions from the Gotham Awards and a couple of other regional critics’ groups but failed to nab Critics Choice and Golden Globes.

The SAG Awards, which are far more open to TV actors crossing over, will be his best shot at recognition before moving on to the BAFTA voting body, which announces its shortlist on Jan. 5.

Whishaw must break up a possible double dip from two films — “The Banshees of Inisherin” with Brendan Gleeson and Karry Keoghan and “The Fabelmans” with Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. The four men are trying to ride on each of their film’s momentum to join Ke Huy Quan, the only safe bet (and front runner) for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

If two actors from two separate movies were to be nominated, it would mimic the supporting actress lineup of 1949. In that respective year, Mercedes McCambridge won the Oscar for “All the King’s Men” over four women from two films — Ethel Barrymore and Ethel Waters from “Pinky” and Celeste Holm and Elsa Lancaster from “Come to the Stable.”

We also have a pair of actors contending to be the sole mentions for their movies — Brian Tyree Henry for “Causeway” (unless Jennifer Lawrence can break into her competitive lead actress race) and Eddie Redmayne for “The Good Nurse” (unless a surprising adapted screenplay nom drops on Oscar morning). The sole acting nominees are hard to come by unless you’re a former winner (Tom Hanks in “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” and Christopher Plummer in “All the Money in the World”) or run the gauntlet with critics’ prizes (Willem Dafoe in “The Florida Project” and Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”). Voters will often watch a movie for multiple citations, but difficult to get them to view for only a single one.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

CAUSEWAY, from left: Brian Tyree Henry, Jennifer Lawrence, 2022. ph: Wilson Webb /© Apple TV+ / Courtesy Everett CollectionCAUSEWAY, from left: Brian Tyree Henry, Jennifer Lawrence, 2022. ph: Wilson Webb /© Apple TV+ / Courtesy Everett Collection

CAUSEWAY, from left: Brian Tyree Henry, Jennifer Lawrence, 2022. ph: Wilson Webb /© Apple TV+ / Courtesy Everett Collection

And The Predicted Nominees Are:

Rank

Name

Film

Distributor

1

Ke Huy Quan

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

A24

An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.

2

Brendan Gleeson

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Searchlight Pictures

Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.

3

Barry Keoghan

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Searchlight Pictures

Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.

4

Judd Hirsch

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.

5

Brian Tyree Henry

“Causeway”

A24/Apple Original Films

A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.

Next in Line

6

Paul Dano

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.

7

Brad Pitt

“Babylon”

Paramount Pictures

A tale of outsized ambition and outrageous excess, it traces the rise and fall of multiple characters during an era of unbridled decadence and depravity in early Hollywood.

8

Eddie Redmayne

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

An infamous caregiver is implicated in the deaths of hundreds of hospital patients.

9

Tom Hanks

“Elvis”

Warner Bros.

Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.

10

Ben Whishaw

“Women Talking”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.

Other Top-Tier Contenders

11

Ben Foster

“Emancipation”

Apple Original Films

12

Jeremy Strong

“Armageddon Time”

Focus Features

13

Woody Harrelson

“Triangle of Sadness”

Neon

14

Mark Rylance

“Bones & All”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

15

Micheal Ward

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

16

David Lynch

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

17

Toby Jones

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

18

Miles Teller

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Paramount Pictures

19

Andre Braugher

“She Said”

Universal Pictures

20

Viggo Mortensen

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Also In Contention

21

Colin Farrell

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

22

Edward Norton

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story”

Netflix

23

Glen Powell

“Devotion”

Sony Pictures

24

Anthony Hopkins

“Armageddon Time”

Focus Features

25

Don Cheadle

“White Noise”

Netflix

26

Paul Dano

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

27

Harry Styles

“My Policeman”

Amazon Studios

28

Raúl Castillo

“The Inspection”

A24

29

Bokeem Woodbine

“The Inspection”

A24

30

Ben Aldridge

“Spoiler Alert”

Focus Features

All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)

John Way

“A Love Song”

Bleecker Street

Manuel Garcia-Rulfo

“A Man Called Otto”

Sony Pictures

Justin H. Min

“After Yang”

A24

Aaron Hilmer

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Albrecht Schuch

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Devid Striesow

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Edin Hasanovic

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Mortiz Klaus

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Thibault de Montlembert

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Jonathan Pryce

“All the Old Knives”

Amazon Studios

Laurence Fishburne

“All the Old Knives”

Amazon Studios

Alessandro Nivola

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Chris Rock

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

John David Washington

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Matthias Schoenaerts

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Michael Shannon

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Mike Myers

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Rami Malek

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Robert DeNiro

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Timothy Olyphant

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Norman Briski

“Argentina, 1985”

Amazon Studios

Peter Lanzani

“Argentina, 1985”

Amazon Studios

Anthony Hopkins

“Armageddon Time”

Focus Features

Jaylin Webb

“Armageddon Time”

Focus Features

Jeremy Strong

“Armageddon Time”

Focus Features

Dustin Hoffman

“As They Made Us”

Quiver

Britain Dalton

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

20th Century Studios

Cliff Curtis

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

20th Century Studios

Stephen Lang

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

20th Century Studios

Brad Pitt

“Babylon”

Paramount Pictures

Tobey Maguire

“Babylon”

Paramount Pictures

Andrés Almeida

“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”

Netflix

Iker Solano

“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”

Netflix

Aldis Hodge

“Black Adam”

Warner Bros

Alex Livinalli

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Marvel Studios

Martin Freeman

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Marvel Studios

Tenoch Huerta Mejia

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Marvel Studios

Winston Duke

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Marvel Studios

Adrien Brody

“Blonde”

Netflix

Bobby Cannavale

“Blonde”

Netflix

Evan Williams

“Blonde”

Netflix

Xavier Samuel

“Blonde”

Netflix

André Holland

“Bones & All”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Mark Rylance

“Bones & All”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Michael Stuhlbarg

“Bones & All”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Jeffrey Donovan

“Breaking”

Bleecker Street

Michael Kenneth Williams

“Breaking”

Bleecker Street

Guy Branum

“Bros”

Universal Pictures

Jim Rash

“Bros”

Universal Pictures

Luke Macfarlane

“Bros”

Universal Pictures

Miss Lawrence

“Bros”

Universal Pictures

Trevante Rhodes

“Bruiser”

Onyx Collective

Andrew Scott

“Catherine Called Birdy”

Amazon Studios

Joe Alwyn

“Catherine Called Birdy”

Amazon Studios

Brian Tyree Henry

“Causeway”

A24/Apple Original Films

Gustav de Waele

“Close”

A24

Igor Van Dessel

“Close”

A24

Scott Speedman

“Crimes of the Future”

Neon

Glen Powell

“Devotion”

Sony Pictures

Joe Jonas

“Devotion”

Sony Pictures

Thomas Sadoski

“Devotion”

Sony Pictures

Benedict Wong

“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”

Marvel Studios

Ethan Suplee

“Dog”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Kevin Nash

“Dog”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Luke Forbes

“Dog”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Robbie Gene Bevins

“Dog”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Harry Styles

“Don’t Worry Darling”

Warner Bros

Chris Pine

“Don’t Worry Darling”

Warner Bros.

Nick Kroll

“Don’t Worry Darling”

Warner Bros.

Allen Leech

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Brendan Coyle

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Dominic West

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Harry Hadden-Paton

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Hugh Dancy

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Jim Carter

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Jonathan Zaccaï

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Kevin Doyle

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Michael Fox

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Robert James-Collier

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Noah Jupe

“Dreamin’ Wild”

No U.S. Distribution

David Wenham

“Elvis”

Warner Bros.

Kelvin Harrison Jr.

“Elvis”

Warner Bros.

Richard Roxburgh

“Elvis”

Warner Bros.

Tom Hanks

“Elvis”

Warner Bros.

Aaron Moten

“Emancipation”

Apple Original Films

Ben Foster

“Emancipation”

Apple Original Films

David Denham

“Emancipation”

Apple Original Films

Grant Harvey

“Emancipation”

Apple Original Films

Sebastian Chacon

“Emergency”

Amazon Studios

John Patton Ford

“Emily the Criminal”

Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment

Theo Rossi

“Emily the Criminal”

Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment

Colin Firth

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

Micheal Ward

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

Toby Jones

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

Ke Huy Quan

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

A24

Dave Bautista

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Netflix

Edward Norton

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Netflix

Leslie Odom Jr.

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Netflix

Austin Crute

“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”

Focus Features

Conphidance

“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”

Focus Features

Devere Rogers

“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”

Focus Features

Anthony Edwards

“Hustle”

Netflix

Ben Foster

“Hustle”

Netflix

Juancho Hernangómez

“Hustle”

Netflix

Kenny Smith

“Hustle”

Netflix

Robert Duvall

“Hustle”

Netflix

Ashton Sanders

“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”

Sony Pictures

Clarke Peters

“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”

Sony Pictures

Stanley Tucci

“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”

Sony Pictures

Matthew Duckett

“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”

Netflix

Alex Sharp

“Living”

Sony Pictures Classics

Tom Burke

“Living”

Sony Pictures Classics

Brett Gelman

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Jason Kravits

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Scoot McNairy

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Shawn Mendes

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Winslow Fegley

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Stephen Graham

“Matilda”

Netflix

Asivak Koostachin

“Montana Story”

Bleecker Street

Gilbert Owuor

“Montana Story”

Bleecker Street

Oliver Jackson-Cohen

“Mr. Malcolm’s List”

Bleecker Street

Theo James

“Mr. Malcolm’s List”

Bleecker Street

Jason Isaacs

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”

Focus Features

Lambert Wilson

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”

Focus Features

Lucas Bravo

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”

Focus Features

David Dawson

“My Policeman”

Amazon Studios

Morgan Spector

“Nanny”

Amazon Studios

Sinqua Walls

“Nanny”

Amazon Studios

Brandon Perea

“Nope”

Universal Pictures

Steven Yeun

“Nope”

Universal Pictures

Jonathan Tucker

“Palm Trees and Power Lines”

Momentum Pictures

Ethan Hawke*

“Raymond & Ray”

Apple Original Films

Ewan McGregor*

“Raymond & Ray”

Apple Original Films

Adrien Brody

“See How They Run”

Searchlight Pictures

David Oyelowo

“See How They Run”

Searchlight Pictures

Harris Dickinson

“See How They Run”

Searchlight Pictures

Reece Shearsmith

“See How They Run”

Searchlight Pictures

Andre Braugher

“She Said”

Universal Pictures

Tom Pelphrey

“She Said”

Universal Pictures

Ben Aldridge

“Spoiler Alert”

Focus Features

Bill Irwin

“Spoiler Alert”

Focus Features

Joe Alwyn

“Stars at Noon”

A24

Allan Corduner

“Tár”

Focus Features

Julian Glover

“Tár”

Focus Features

Mark Strong

“Tár”

Focus Features

Barry Keoghan

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Searchlight Pictures

Brendan Gleeson

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Searchlight Pictures

Andy Serkis

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Barry Keoghan

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Colin Farrell

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Jeffrey Wright

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

John Turturro

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Paul Dano

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Peter Sarsgaard

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Brian D’Arcy James

“The Cathedral”

Hulu

Paul Dano

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

Seth Rogen

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

Eddie Redmayne

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

Malik Yoba

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

Nnamdi Asomugha

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

Noah Emmerich

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

Bill Murray

“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”

Apple Original Films

Russell Crowe

“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”

Apple Original Films

Bokeem Woodbine

“The Inspection”

A24

Raúl Castillo

“The Inspection”

A24

Harry Lloyd

“The Lost King”

Warner Bros.

John Leguizamo

“The Menu”

Searchlight Pictures

Nicholas Hoult

“The Menu”

Searchlight Pictures

Reed Birney

“The Menu”

Searchlight Pictures

Claes Bang

“The Northman”

Focus Features

Gustav Lindh

“The Northman”

Focus Features

Willem Dafoe

“The Northman”

Focus Features

Dylan O’Brien

“The Outfit”

Focus Features

Johnny Dlynn

“The Outfit”

Focus Features

Simon Russell Beale

“The Outfit”

Focus Features

Harry Melling

“The Pale Blue Eye”

Netflix

Robert Duvall

“The Pale Blue Eye”

Netflix

Jared Harris

“The Sea Beast”

Netflix

Michael Smiley

“The Silent Twins”

Focus Features

Treva Etienne

“The Silent Twins”

Focus Features

Zen McGrath

“The Son”

Sony

Matthias Schweighöfer

“The Swimmers”

Netflix

Pedro Pascal

“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”

Lionsgate

John Boyega

“The Woman King”

Sony Pictures

Toby Jones

“The Wonder”

Netflix

Tom Burke

“The Wonder”

Netflix

Colin Farrell

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

James Teeradon Supapunpinyo

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Joel Edgerton

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Paul Gleeson

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Sahajak Boonthanakit

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Tom Bateman

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Tui Thiraphat Sajakul

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Viggo Mortensen

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Weir Sukollawat Kanaros

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Russell Crowe

“Thor: Love and Thunder”

Marvel Studios

Paul Mescal

“God’s Creatures”

A24

Pete Davidson

“Bodies Bodies Bodies”

A24

Lee Pace

“Bodies Bodies Bodies”

A24

Christian Bale

“Thor: Love and Thunder”

Marvel Studios

Taika Waititi

“Thor: Love and Thunder”

Marvel Studios

Sean Patrick Thomas

“Till”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Frankie Faison

“Till”

Orion/United Artists Releasing

Jalyn Hall

“Till”

Orion/United Artists Releasing

Glen Powell

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Paramount Pictures

Jon Hamm

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Paramount Pictures

Miles Teller

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Paramount Pictures

Woody Harrelson

“Triangle of Sadness”

Neon

Ving Rhames

“Wendell and Wild”

Netflix

David Strathairn

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Eric Ladin

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Garret Dillahunt

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Harris Dickinson

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Luke David Blumm

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Sterling Macer Jr.

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Taylor John Smith

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Don Cheadle

“White Noise”

Netflix

Don Cheadle

“White Noise”

Netflix

Sam Nivola

“White Noise”

Netflix

Ben Whishaw

“Women Talking”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Carloto Cotta

“You Won’t Be Alone”

Focus Features

Felix Maritaud

“You Won’t Be Alone”

Focus Features

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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